What Giants' past trade deadlines tell us about 2023 approach
What Giants' past trade deadlines tell us about 2023 approach originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
SAN FRANCISCO -- You haven't had to look too hard the last few days to see some trends that will be important for the Giants ahead of next week's trade deadline.
Last weekend, they DFA'd reliever Mauricio Llovera -- who had thrown well -- because of their lack of flexibility on the pitching staff. A few days later, they called up Marco Luciano, who could be the solution to their middle infield depth issues. An hour after Luciano's debut, they announced that Logan Webb will start Friday, but that Saturday and Sunday are TBA, a reminder that they could certainly use one more frontline starter.
Even after two wins against the A's, the Giants are somewhat limping into the final weekend before the deadline, but they remain firmly in the playoff race and just three games out in the division. It's a position that will lead Farhan Zaidi and Pete Putila to buy, the only question is how aggressive they'll be in filling that rotation void and adding to a slumping lineup.
Every deadline is different, but it's sometimes helpful to look back for guidance on what's ahead. Here's how Zaidi has handled his three deadlines (not counting the shortened 2020 season) as Giants president of baseball operations, and what that might mean for a team that's 56-47 but about to kick off a stretch of six weeks of games against contenders:
2022
While the six-game losing streak at the end of this July's long road trip brought back some memories of last year's 0-7 trip after the break, the Giants are in much better shape this time around. They were 51-51 on deadline day last year, and while they weren't buried in the Wild Card race, they were trailing enough talented rosters that it didn't make much sense to push, especially when their bid for Juan Soto fell well short.
The Giants traded Darin Ruf, Curt Casali, Matt Boyd and Trevor Rosenthal, but they held Carlos Rodón, Joc Pederson and Wilmer Flores. Pederson and Flores ended up coming back this year and the Giants took a draft pick for Rodón, who had a player option for 2023 that complicated his market and made it hard for the Giants to get full value last July (the same might happen to Marcus Stroman this year).
"I think the prudent thing was for us to be open to anything, but we have some really good players who we think can help us have a really good last two months and we weren't going to make trades just for the sake of making them," Zaidi said on deadline day.
"They have to make sense for us, short term and long term."
Zaidi was hopeful that last year's team could turn it around and then become a scary postseason foe with Webb and Rodón atop the rotation, but the next two months were more of the same. Last year's deadline still proved fruitful, though. The Ruf-J.D. Davis swap has been one of Zaidi's best moves, and the injured Rosenthal was turned into prospect Tristan Peters, who was later swapped for Brett Wisely.
2021
Zaidi's biggest deadline move came in 2021, when he sent Caleb Kilian and Alexander Canario to the Cubs for Kris Bryant, making an all-in push for a team that was deserving of one. Bryant was somewhat disappointing the last two months, although given that the Giants won the NL West by just one game, it's possible that his seven homers and 111 wRC+ did put them over the top. He also had a great NLDS before moving on to the Colorado Rockies. That was a much different team -- one that looked like a World Series contender throughout the season -- but there are some lessons to take away from it.
Zaidi hasn't made many big splashes, but he'll go for it when he thinks the timing is right (the pursuits of Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa being other examples). The Bryant trade is also a good reminder not to hug your mid-tier prospects too tight.
Kilian was a right-handed starter who had dominated that season, but he has struggled in the minors with the Cubs and got rocked in four big league appearances the last two years. Canario was a powerful outfielder who was too far away from the Majors for someone already on the 40-man roster. He hit 37 homers in the minors last year, but he fractured his ankle and injured his shoulder in winter ball and has only just returned to Triple-A.
Neither was a top prospect, and the Giants are much, much deeper two years later, so they may be able to trade from the middle of their system to fill holes while still protecting some potential future stars. As they did with Canario, they also should start clearing out the 40-man a bit, because most of this year's rookies are on it for good and they'll have to add others before this offseason's Rule 5 Draft.
2019
This was Zaidi's first year in charge and it might provide the best blueprint.
Sparked by newcomers like Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, the Giants had a huge July and entered deadline day a game over .500. That complicated things for a front office that was brought in to rebuild, so Zaidi bought, sold and also held some key veterans. The Giants made five different moves that day involving 13 players.
The most notable one was the trade of Mark Melancon to the Braves, who took on about $18 million in salary and sent two lesser-known prospects back. One of them was Tristan Beck, who now looks like a part of the future in San Francisco. Could Zaidi duplicate that kind of deal this year and dump some of the money owed to one of the struggling veteran starters?
The Giants also added Scooter Gennett -- a bad move, as it turned out -- while sending out Sam Dyson, Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black for prospects, including Mauricio Dubon and Jaylin Davis, who were advanced enough to play in the big leagues that year.
But they weren't necessarily pure sellers.
Above all, though, the 2019 deadline will be remembered for keeping Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith. The Giants added prospects while also leaving an opportunity for a flawed team that hoped to go on a run in Bruce Bochy's final year. Four years later, the Giants won't be looking to add prospects, but they should try to thread the needle like this again.
The roster is imbalanced, with too many veterans who can't stick in the rotation but also can't be optioned to Triple-A. There's a need for a frontline starter and also middle infield depth. The Giants have the high-end prospects to be in any conversation, but right now this also isn't a team that looks one huge piece away.
In 2019, Zaidi sold to bolster the future, while also giving the roster a chance to compete in September. This time around, the Giants should put a twist on that. They can buy, but they should be careful about how much of the future they give away, and they should also see if they can duplicate the Melancon deal and add some flexibility to the current roster.
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