Gene Frenette: Good luck to AFC South rookie QBs trying to outduel Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence

Rejoice, Jaguars fans, the AFC South has assembled a trio of young gunslingers that the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans are counting on to eventually outduel Trevor Lawrence.

So bring it on, rooks. And good luck with that.

Pretty soon, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis will take their shot at rising up to the level of Lawrence, who has already ascended into that second tier below the AFC elite quarterbacks of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.

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It’ll be fascinating to see if the offenses these QBs will soon run have enough ammunition over the next five years — providing all of them last that long with their respective franchises — to keep up with their Jaguars’ counterpart.

Because Lawrence, who already has a slew of formidable weapons, will make every effort to leave them in the dust like Colts Hall of Famer Peyton Manning did over nine seasons (2002-10) of ruling the same division.

How can anybody in “Duuu-val” not love the prospect of Trevor going up against all these fresh-out-of-college quarterbacks?

None of them will have anywhere near the game experience or offensive system familiarity of Lawrence whenever they face the Jaguars this season or in 2024.

Stroud, the No. 2 overall draft pick from Ohio State, will likely start right away for the quarterback-starved Texans, but it’s pure conjecture when Indianapolis has its No. 4 pick, Florida’s Richardson, taking over for veteran Gardner Minshew.

As for Levis — a projected top-10 pick who fell all the way to Tennessee at 33rd overall in the second round — he may wait until 2024 or at least most of this season before the Kentucky signal-caller gets an opportunity to succeed Ryan Tannehill.

Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel, a former New England Patriots linebacker, made a very Bill Belichick-like remark Friday about Levis, saying he will be the team’s third-string QB behind Tannehill and Malik Willis.

No matter what the timeline is for this AFC South rookie trio to get on the field, all of them will be QB1 soon enough. They’ll just start out at a competitive disadvantage.

Trying to match a Lawrence-led offense point for point, with new receiver weapon Calvin Ridley added to a familiar Jaguars surrounding cast, will be a huge challenge.

Playing catch-up to Trevor

The Lawrence comparisons with Manning have been there for a few years. Only now, circumstances at quarterback with the Jaguars’ rivals are such that it’s not inconceivable Trevor could own the division like the Colts’ legend, who went 41-13 for Indianapolis against AFC South foes.

Manning had the benefit of being in his fifth season when the AFC South was formed in 2002. The late Steve McNair of Tennessee was the only proven QB in the division who posed any kind of a threat to the Colts for about a four-year period.

Oh, it’s not like AFC South teams didn’t invest heavily to counteract Manning. During those nine consecutive seasons when Indy won seven division titles and made two wild-card playoff appearances, then over the next five years, the Jaguars, Titans and Texans combined to draft seven quarterbacks in the top-10 of the first round.

All seven never came close to justifying the slots in which they were selected, allowing the Colts to continue dominating after they took Andrew Luck No. 1 in 2012.

Three Jaguars — Byron Leftwich, Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles — were all gone within five years. Tennessee whiffed on Vince Young (No. 3, 2006), Jake Locker (No. 8 in 2011) and Marcus Mariota (No. 2, 2015).

Another No. 1 overall pick, the Houston Texans’ David Carr in 2002, went 22-53 as a starter in Houston and floundered as a backup the rest of his career.

Manning, much like Tom Brady with the Patriots, took full advantage of a weak assembly of quarterbacks in his own division. With a five-time league MVP at the controls, the Colts averaged 12.1 wins per season. Tennessee was second at 8.5 wins per year over that same span.

This isn’t to suggest Lawrence will own the AFC South to the same degree as Manning. But the Jaguars’ roster, especially an offense reinforced by GM Trent Baalke taking a tackle (Anton Harrison, Oklahoma), tight end (Brenton Strange, Penn State) and running back (Tank Bigsby, Auburn) in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, has a significant edge for now.

Regardless of when Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee decide to let their rookie QBs take over, they’re way behind Lawrence. He’s already gone through a good deal of his growing pains, leading the Jaguars back from the dead in 2022 when they erased a four-game deficit in the AFC South standings against the injury-prone Titans.

Furthermore, by virtue of beating Tennessee in a winner-take-the-division game and that 27-point playoff comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Jaguars and Lawrence have the confidence of knowing they belong as AFC contenders.

Everybody else in the AFC South is either rebuilding, or in the Titans’ case, not sure when the QB torch will be passed to Levis because he may have a steeper adjustment to the NFL than Richardson or Stroud.

Whichever of the three takes over first, it won’t be easy closing the gap between their team and the Jaguars. For now, Lawrence has too big of a jump. Stroud, Richardson and Levis will have to play catch-up.

Capitalizing on Trevor

Lawrence’s two-year jump on the incoming wave of AFC South quarterbacks is the biggest reason why the Jaguars should be division favorites this year and beyond.

The benefit of Lawrence having made 34 regular season starts (plus two playoff games) and going into his third season without having to learn a new system cannot be underestimated. His 25-8 touchdown-interception ratio in 2022 was a complete turnaround from his 12-17 ratio as a rookie, when first-year NFL head coach Urban Meyer was exposed as completely unfit for the job.

Only Stroud, who threw a phenomenal 81 TDs in two seasons with the Buckeyes, appears to have a chance to get thrown into the fire immediately among AFC South quarterbacks, but the Texans’ roster has a massive rebuild around him.

“Those guys are good football players,” said Jaguars GM Trent Baalke about the rookie quarterbacks in his division. “How they develop in this league, that remains to be seen. But they’re quality football players. All three of them are talented guys that are smart guys, that understand the position, what it takes to be leaders. Let’s see how they develop.”

Yes, the impending makeover will make for a compelling AFC South watch in the next few years. Jaguars fans should be enthralled because for once, they have the quarterback advantage for the foreseeable future.

Think about this: Lawrence will be throwing to three receivers in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Ridley who, along with tight end Evan Engram, are way better than anyone Tannehill or Levis will be targeting for the Titans.

Indianapolis has a raw, athletic talent in Richardson and a masterful offensive mind in head coach Shane Steichen. But who knows how long it’ll take him to develop Richardson into a reliable starter.

Stroud and the Texans may need two years for first-year boss DeMeco Ryans to get things moving in the right direction.

Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson, a career backup QB for 10 NFL seasons, didn’t want to elaborate on what his AFC South rivals have at quarterback. He simply wants to focus on making sure Lawrence continues his ascent, which would likely widen the gap between him and those division rookies.

“Trevor is in a good place right now,” said Pederson. “We’ve got to continue to grow him, keep him coming in the right direction. He took a big, big step forward this year. The opportunity is right for him and our football team at this time.”

Lawrence, who is three months younger than Levis, may not be the second coming of Peyton Manning. But he’s got a considerable head start on Stroud, Richardson and Levis as they confront a daunting transition into the NFL.

For once, the Jaguars hold the upper hand at quarterback within their own division. It should be fascinating to watch how long Trevor Lawrence can keep them on top.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540     

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars' QB Lawrence may dominate young AFC South rivals like Manning