Gary Phillips: Will the Padres make potential Yankees trade target Juan Soto available?
NEW YORK — After going 82-80 and falling abysmally short of championship expectations in 2023, a certain big-spending baseball team needs to determine how it’s going to allocate resources this offseason and beyond.
That’s right — we’re talking about the San Diego Padres.
OK, so we’re also talking about the Yankees, who finished with the same record and one spot lower in the standings despite an even larger payroll. But those similarities are not why we’re discussing the two teams.
The reason is none other than Juan Soto, as the Padres have a huge choice to make when it comes to the 24-year-old superstar. Right now, those options include trading the outfielder or keeping him in hopes of signing him to an eye-popping, long-term deal down the road.
Trading a generational talent is rarely a good idea. But the Padres have other needs, and dealing Soto — a free agent after the 2024 season — could help them fill some holes while shedding salary.
The possibility had The Athletic’s Jim Bowden pegging the Yankees as a potential trade partner earlier this week. The former Nationals and Reds general manager proposed that the Yankees could ship four major league-ready players to San Diego: outfielder Everson Pereira, infielder Oswald Peraza, and pitchers Michael King and Jhony Brito.
I’m not sure that package would get me to pull the trigger if I were Padres general manager A.J. Preller, but the Yankees have other chips they can trade if the Dads are actually willing to move Soto. Preller, meanwhile, has to realize he won’t get back what it took to acquire Soto and Josh Bell from Washington last year: Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and Luke Voit.
In the meantime, San Diego has to consider some other factors as it weighs Soto’s future.
A pledge to compete
A day after the Padres’ campaign ended, owner Peter Seidler released a statement assuring fans that his organization would “learn from this season and emerge in 2024 with the pieces in place to compete for San Diego’s first World Series title.”
(Funny, the Yankees never issued such a statement to their fans.)
Suffice to say, trading a player of Soto’s caliber would not be a great look after such a pledge. But owners don’t always follow through on what they say — remember when Hal Steinbrenner claimed the Yankees weren’t done yet last offseason? — and teams can still win after losing superstars. Soto’s old squad, the Nationals, won the World Series in 2019 after Bryce Harper left for the Phillies, and Washington wasn’t even compensated for Harper’s departure.
The Padres would at least get something in return for trading Soto.
Soto’s salary
MLB Trade Rumors’ projections predict that Soto will make a record-setting $33 million in arbitration this winter. That’s a lot of money, and we haven’t even started talking about what it would take to lock Soto up long-term.
For reference, the Nationals offered Soto a 15-year, $440 million contract last season. He rejected the deal, which would have paid him an average annual salary of $29.3 million, before being sent to San Diego.
Would Seidler, already locked into pricey, lengthy agreements with Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Jake Cronenworth, be willing to offer Soto a contract that exceeds Washington’s proposal? And would Soto, a Scott Boras client, even put pen to paper before reaching free agency? Boras’ clients often test the open market.
On the flip side of this thought exercise, would the Yankees be willing to offer Soto such a monstrous contract? They already have a few huge megadeals on their books, some hindering, and Steinbrenner can’t be happy that a $298 million payroll only bought him a fourth-place team. That fourth-place team also has a bunch of needs that must be addressed this offseason.
If the Yankees were to go after Soto, they shouldn’t think of him as a rental, though. But that means ponying up at some point.
San Diego’s needs
Like the Yankees, the Padres have a bunch of needs after a disappointing season. Meanwhile, two of their best pitchers, closer Josh Hader and Cy Young candidate Blake Snell, are set to become free agents.
The Padres may not necessarily re-sign those two, but they will have to try and replace their production if they truly intend to contend next year. Either way, they may have to spend money to do that. That’s on top of whatever hanging on to Soto would ultimately cost.
The Padres could save money elsewhere by declining club options on Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha, but moving on from Soto would save them significant money now and in the future.
Of course, doing that would also mean parting with the team’s best hitter.
Soto’s offense
The reason the Yankees — and any other team serious about competing — should be in on Soto is simple: the dude rakes.
The 2023 season saw the lefty swinger hit .275/.410/.519 with 32 doubles, a career-high 35 homers, 109 RBIs and a 158 OPS+. His 132 walks led the majors — he’s done that three times in his career — and his 5.5 Wins Above Replacement ranked 12th, per FanGraphs.
Can the Padres seriously expect to be better in 2024 without him?
That, and the other questions posed here, are all ones that Seidler, Preller and company have surely been asking themselves as they try to figure out what to do with Soto.
As they deliberate, the rest of the baseball world — including the Yankees — waits.
