Four key takeaways from the NCAA's early bracket reveal

With the Super Bowl and Valentine's Day both in the rearview mirror, that can only mean one thing: the NCAA tournament is almost here.

Twenty-two days before Selection Sunday, the NCAA men’s basketball selection committee shared a snapshot of its top 16 teams. Here is the partial bracket that the committee unveiled on Saturday afternoon, the committee's top 16 from top to bottom and four key takeaways.

THE SELECTION COMMITTEE'S EARLY TOP 16

1. Gonzaga

2. Auburn

3. Arizona

4. Kansas

5. Baylor

6. Kentucky

7. Purdue

8. Duke

9. Villanova

10. Texas Tech

11. Tennessee

12. Illinois

13. Wisconsin

14. UCLA

15. Providence

16. Texas

FOUR KEY TAKEAWAYS:

1. Gonzaga, not Arizona, is No. 1 in the West

Glance at the resumés of Gonzaga and Arizona, and it’s not easy to tell them apart.

One is 22-2. The other is 23-2.

One has a tight grip on first place in an unusually strong WCC. The other has a tight grip on first place in the unusually top-heavy Pac-12.

One has a 6-2 record in Quadrant 1 games, including marquee victories over Texas Tech, UCLA and Texas. The other has a 5-2 record in Quadrant 1 games, including marquee victories over Illinois, UCLA and USC.

Even the systems they run have similarities. Arizona is coached by Tommy Lloyd, who until last spring was Mark Few’s second-in-command at Gonzaga.

So why is Gonzaga the selection committee’s current No. 1 overall team with a geographically friendly path to a potential third Final Four since 2017? And why is Arizona slotted behind the Zags and Auburn and settling for a No. 1 seed in the South Region?

Selection committee chairman Tom Burnett described the margin between those three teams as "razor thin" but he pointed to who Gonzaga beat out of conference.

"Great quality of wins that swayed the committee this week," Burnett said during CBS' Bracket Preview Show. "They beat Texas Tech. They beat UCLA. They beat Texas."

What didn't come up but may also have been a factor: Gonzaga's margin of victory mowing through its schedule. Only five of the 22 teams that Gonzaga has beaten this season have come within fewer than 20 points. None have lost by fewer than nine.

In predictive metrics that take margin of victory into account, Gonzaga is the nation’s top-ranked team by a wide margin. Arizona has more chances to bolster its resumé with a road date at USC and the Pac-12 tournament still left to play. Even so, the Zags may be hard to catch if they don’t take at least one more loss.

2. Kansas controls the race for the final No. 1 seed

While it was a foregone conclusion that Gonzaga, Auburn and Arizona would land No. 1 seeds in the committee’s in-season bracket, which team would claim the final spot on the top seed line wasn’t so clear.

Would it be Kansas, which leads the formidable Big 12 and has an impressive 14-4 record in Quadrant 1 and 2 games? Or would it be Kentucky, which three weeks ago clobbered the Jayhawks by 18 points in Allen Fieldhouse? Or maybe Baylor, which like Kansas has nine Quadrant 1 victories?

Burnett admitted there was "maybe a little separation" between the top three teams and the final No. 1 seed. He and his colleagues ultimately chose Kansas because of its national-best 9-3 record in Quadrant 1 games. The Jayhawks have a head-to-head victory over Baylor, which the committee deemed the strongest of the No. 2 seeds. They also have beaten Texas Tech and Michigan State, as well as a slew of Big 12 NCAA tournament hopefuls.

Given the strength of its remaining schedule and its head-to-head rout of Kansas, Kentucky would seem to have the best chance to bypass the Jayhawks or one of the other three presumed No. 1 seeds should any of them falter down the stretch. The Wildcats have opportunities for marquee wins at home against Alabama and LSU and at Arkansas over the next eight days. Then there’s the SEC tournament, where a chance to avenge a previous loss to Auburn could potentially await.

Though the primary purpose of the NCAA’s in-season bracket preview is to generate discussion, the top seed line has often proven to be a harbinger of things to come. In four of the past five years, three of the four No. 1 seeds from the NCAA’s early sneak peek at the bracket have remained on the top seed line come Selection Sunday. That pattern likely would have continued in 2020, except there was no NCAA tournament.

3. How the committee seeded Providence (And what that means for everyone else)

One of the trickiest decisions the committee had to make was where to place Providence. That’s because the Friars have a resumé that rivals the likes of Duke or Villanova yet computer metrics that suggest they’re nowhere near that good.

Providence established itself as a team to watch during non-conference play with a road win at Wisconsin, followed by a home win over Texas Tech. Since then, the Friars have ascended to the top of a loaded Big East that could send as many as seven teams to the NCAA tournament.

And yet, despite that success, Providence is still 29th in the NET, 40th in Bart Torvik’s rankings and 45th at KenPom. Metrics that take margin of victory into account don’t like the Friars, who are 9-1 in games decided by five points or fewer and have been blown out in losses to Virginia and Marquette.

In the end, the committee paid attention to the predictive metrics and awarded Providence the second-to-last No. 4 seed. It’s a decision that offers insight into how the committee might treat other teams whose resumés and metrics don't match.

Among the teams who are banking on favorable predictive metrics to boost their seedings: Houston, LSU, Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma.

Among the teams who, like Providence, are ranked lower in the predictive metrics than their resumes would suggest: USC, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Oregon.

4. Who was the biggest snub?

There were four teams that were in the running for the final spot in the top 16. Burnett said the committee ultimately chose Texas over Alabama, Houston and Ohio State.

Of the three snubs, the team with the biggest gripe might be Houston, which is 21-4 overall, fourth in the NET and seventh in Ken Pomeroy's rankings. Predictive metrics like the Cougars far more than the likes of Texas, Wisconsin and Providence, which all landed on the No. 4 line.

What held back the Cougars was a dearth of marquee wins. Their most impressive victory to date is ... Virginia? Oregon? Maybe Oklahoma State. Not having beaten a surefire NCAA tournament team yet this season outweighed other metrics in the eye of the committee.

"The NET is a great sorting tool for the committee, but it's not the be-all, end-all for us," Burnett said. "I look at the NET as kind of a first step. I want to see why the NET is that way. We've all watched Providence. We've all watched Houston. Houston certainly has an issue with a lack of Quad 1 wins this year, whereas Providence has had a lot of Quad 1 opportunities in the Big East Conference and they've taken advantage."

In addition to Houston, Alabama had an argument to be on the No. 4 seed line. While the Tide have nine losses including some dubious ones to mid-major Iona and SEC bottom feeders Missouri and Georgia, they also have some of the most impressive wins of any team in the country. Who else has beaten the likes of Gonzaga, Baylor, Tennessee, Houston, Arkansas and LSU?