Forecasting predictions for every Texas football game in 2024
We’re forecasting out the 2024 football schedule for the Texas Longhorns as are several others. Most view the Longhorns as legitimate College Football Playoff contenders. Others have starkly varied opinions on the team.
The vast majority view the Longhorns as a Top 10 team heading into next season. A minority of media members view Texas as a team due for a fall off, comparing the team to its 2019 iteration that went 7-5 after a Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia. But Texas returns far more impactful players than it did that season.
We expect across the country there will be some roster shakeup after spring football, but don’t anticipate much impactful roster change across the college football landscape. Let’s give our early prediction for each game on the Longhorns’ schedule.
Colorado State
Colorado State went 5-7 in 2023 struggling mightily against Mountain West competition with a 3-5 record in conference play. The Rams faced a common opponent in Wyoming and lost 24-15. One of the highlights of the season came in an overtime battle with in-state rival Colorado where the Rams took the Buffaloes to overtime. Ultimately, Texas outmatches Colorado State.
Prediction: Texas by 20.
Record: 1-0
at Michigan
Michigan could shock the world again in 2024 after a national title season out of nowhere. Unfortunately, there’s an exodus in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines’ projected starter at quarterback Alex Orji has attempted one career pass in a college game. He will play behind an offensive line that replaces all five starters and lose the team’s No. 1 and No. 3 receiver as well as starting running back Blake Corum. Defensively, Michigan loses several key players in the front six. Contrast that with Texas, who ranks No. 25 nationally in returning production, and the Longhorns should win the game. For what it’s worth, I am as confident in this prediction as I was in predicting Texas to beat Alabama last offseason.
Prediction: Texas by 8.
Record: 2-0
UTSA
UTSA gave Texas quite the battle the last time the teams played in 2022. Starting quarterback Frank Harris might be gone, but head coach Jeff Traylor is still in San Antonio. Expect Traylor to open up the playbook and shock the world in this one. Texas wins, but it’s more competitive than people expect.
Prediction: Texas by 16.
Record: 3-0
Louisiana-Monroe
ULM went 2-10 in last year. This game probably goes something like the last matchup in Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers’ first start. Texas handles business and moves to SEC play.
Prediction: Texas by 35.
Record: 4-0
Mississippi State
Mississippi State enters its first season with Jeff Lebby who unearthed a weak point in the Texas defense last season. While offensive coordinator at Oklahoma, Lebby utilized quarterback draw with Dillon Gabriel to gash the Longhorns’ interior by surprise. Unfortunately for his new team, Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen is no Gabriel, and the Bulldogs’ offensive roster doesn’t compare to that of the Sooners. Texas wins at home.
Prediction: Texas by 14.
Record: 5-0
Oklahoma (Dallas)
Texas heads to the Cotton Bowl to face Oklahoma with revenge on its mind. The Sooners defeated the Longhorns by four points last season behind an opportunistic defensive performance. They will likely have an even better defense this season. That said, Texas will likely operate at a higher level offensively in Quinn Ewers’ third year as starter. The nearly three-year head start on Jackson Arnold (one start as Oklahoma quarterback) is a decided advantage in battle tested experience. This should be the second-toughest game on the schedule to the Georgia game, but the Sooners should be the primary focus this offseason. Texas gets revenge.
Prediction: Texas by 3.
Record: 6-0
Georgia
Even in Austin, Georgia should be favored to defeat Texas. The Bulldogs return several key contributors and have a slight talent advantage over the Longhorns in recruiting. The good news for Texas is they might get a chance to redeem themselves down the line after figuring out what they are up against in the first matchup. Georgia wins this time.
Prediction: Georgia by 7.
Record: 6-1
at Vanderbilt
Texas travels to Nashville for a get-right game and earns a much needed win over the Vanderbilt Commodores. It should be another long year for Vandy in 2024.
Prediction: Texas by 20.
Record: 7-1
Florida
Ahead of a rivalry road game against Arkansas, Texas faces a trap game at home against the Florida Gators. Visiting head coach Billy Napier will look to fight his way out of the hot seat with a strong season this year. A win over Texas would be a statement performance. Texas sneaks out with a home win.
Prediction: Texas by 4.
Record: 8-1
at Arkansas
It’s uncertain if Sam Pittman will still be the head coach at Arkansas after a downward trend since 2021. The Razorbacks went 4-8 last season. The hogs probably won’t be very good this season either. Even so, you can expect the program’s fanbase to show up ready to make noise. Texas finds a way to win in a tough road environment.
Prediction: Texas by 10.
Record: 9-1
Kentucky
Kentucky is the SEC’s version of what Iowa State is to the Big 12. That’s a compliment to the Wildcats as the Cyclones have made a Big 12 title game and produced NFL players like Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, David Montgomery and Allen Lazard among others. Both teams are talent maximizers. Albeit, when Kentucky faces teams like Georgia, things tend to get ugly for the ‘Cats. Texas wins by a couple scores.
Prediction: Texas by 14.
Record: 10-1
at Texas A&M
The Lone Star Showdown resumes over the final weekend of the regular season. The talented Aggies could be hitting their stride late in new head coach Mike Elko’s first season as head coach in College State. Texas A&M brings its best effort and matches Texas punch for punch, but this game ends like the last matchup between the two teams. Texas hits a game-winning field goal as time expires.
Prediction: Texas by 1.
Record: 11-1
