Here’s what it will take for Florida to beat Georgia, per ESPN

Florida football enters the weekend as a historic underdog against rival Georgia, but the folks at ESPN aren’t backing down from the challenge of talking themselves into an upset.

The Gators are projected to lose by more than three touchdowns on Saturday, but there are some analytics that the experts are latching on to.

For starters, neither of these offenses is known for their fast-paced play. Both teams average around 11 possessions per game, which makes each mistake extremely costly. Georgia is second in the country in time of possession, though, so mistakes aren’t too common when they have the ball.

However, Georgia’s quarterback, Stetson Bennett, does have a shaky history against Florida. He’s thrown three interceptions against the Gators over the past two years and isn’t particularly efficient through the air. Then again, Florida’s safeties have struggled at times this season, so there’s no guarantee they have the same success that units of the past have had.

Still, the pattern points to Bennett making at least one mistake this weekend, and that could keep things close enough for Florida to pull off a major upset.

The second metric ESPN is leaning on is Florida’s big-play ability. Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne can break big runs if they’re given a hole, and Anthony Richardson has dazzled plenty of times. The problem is that Georgia’s defense is about as disciplined as they come in college football.

If everything falls apart, Florida could end up winning a shootout, but that’s unlikely against this foe. Then again, anything can happen in a rivalry game, and Richardson has already shined against an SEC foe in a big game (Tennessee).

While it’s unlikely to happen, an upset isn’t totally out of the question for this Florida team on Saturday.


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