FiveThirtyEight releases College Football Playoff odds. Where is Ohio State?
We’re still a couple of weeks away from the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings, but we got our first look at the CFP odds from FiveThirtyEight this week.
I’ll admit it up front — I’m a big fan of FiveThirtyEight. It took me a while to get on board with analytics and numbers, but as soon as I embraced them as a softball coach, I’ve been fascinated with the story numbers can tell. Analytics don’t give you the whole picture, but they do provide insight on portions of the overall picture, and anyone who coaches these days should be using them in some form or fashion or risk falling behind the curve.
We’ve also been following the ESPN Playoff Predictor, and that’s all good and fun, but I feel like FiveThirtyEight has a better handle on this stuff since that’s right in the sweet spot of what the website is designed for.
So what teams have the best chance of making the CFP? Where is Ohio State who has probably been playing better than any team as of late? What about Georgia and Alabama, or the rest of the Big Ten teams in contention.
Here is a look at the teams that currently have a 3% or greater chance of making the College Football Playoff after Week 6 according to FiveThirtyEight.
No. 19 - Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-1)
Dec. 26, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; A Mississippi State Bulldogs helmet on the field prior to the game between the Miami Redhawks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tropicana Field. Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
3%
Chances if win out
97%
No. 17 (tie) - Syracuse Orange (5-0)
Sep 16, 2017; Syracuse, NY, USA; General view of a Syracuse Orange helmet on the turf prior to the game against the Central Michigan Chippewas at the Carrier Dome. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
4%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 17 (tie) - Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1)
Nov 10, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of a Minnesota Golden Gophers helmet before a game against the Purdue Boilermakers at TCF Bank Stadium. Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
4%
Chances if win out
75%
No. 15 (tie) - Utah Utes (4-2)
Sept. 14, 2019; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; A general view of the helmet worn by Utah Utes quarterback Tyler Huntley (1) against the Idaho State Bengals at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5%
Chances if win out
40%
No. 15 (tie) - Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)
Nov 6, 2021; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; A general view of a Kansas State Wildcats helmet against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5%
Chances if win out
96%
No. 14 - Oregon Ducks (5-1)
An “End racism” sticker joins the American Flag on the helmets of Oregon players Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
9%
Chances if win out
72%
No. 13 - Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
10%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 11 (tie) - UCLA Bruins (6-0)
Sep 25, 2014; Tempe, AZ, USA; Detailed view of UCLA Bruins helmets on the sidelines against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
11%
Chances if win out
95%
No. 11 (tie) - Texas Longhorns (4-2)
Nov 10, 2018; Lubbock, TX, USA; A Texas Longhorns helmet on the sidelines during the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium. Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
11%
Chances if win out
74%
No. 10 - TCU Horned Frogs (5-0)
Jul 14, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of the TCU Horned Frogs helmet logo during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
13%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 9 - Ole Miss Rebels (6-0)
Oct. 12, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Mississippi Rebels helmet during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 8 - State (5-0)
Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of an Oklahoma State Cowboys helmet during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
16%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 7 - USC Trojans (6-0)
Dec 29, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; General overall view of the 2017 Cotton Bowl logo on the back of the helmet of Southern California Trojans long snapper Jake Olson at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
19%
Chances if win out
96%
No. 6 - Tennessee Volunteers (6-0)
Nov 23, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Tennessee Volunteers helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
20%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 5 - Michigan Wolverines (6-0)
Sep 24, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Stadium. Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
28%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 4 - Clemson Tigers (6-0)
Sep 5, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (5) carries the ball up the field against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the fourth quarter of the Chick-fil-A kickoff game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
47%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 3 - Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)
Sep 17, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban talks to quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the second half against the UL Monroe Warhawks at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
52%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 2 - Georgia Bulldogs
Nov. 15, 2014; Athens; Georgia mascot UGA IX is shown on the field during their win over the Auburn Tigers at Sanford Stadium. Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
53%
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 1 - Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)
Oct 17, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; A general view of the Ohio State Buckeyes all-black helmet before the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
56%
Chances if win out
99%
[listicle id=98283]
Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on Twitter.
Let us know your thoughts, and comment on this story below. Join the conversation today.
