First Coast Varsity Weekly: Jacksonville's playoff chase takes shape in new FHSAA rankings
District tournaments are less than a month away, and the debate is on for the title of top region in Northeast Florida boys basketball.
This week's release of the new Florida High School Athletic Association rankings further complicated the question: Is Region 1-3A or Region 1-4A on top of the First Coast?
Based on overall depth, Jacksonville's Region 1-4A representatives appear to get the nod. It includes four apparent playoff locks, all ranked first through fourth in their region: Jackson (18th in the state, first in Region 1-4A), Paxon (39th and second), Raines (50th and third) and Ribault (83rd and fourth), plus a 9-4 Bolles team that holds the inside track on a at-large berth.
However, Region 1-3A includes two Jacksonville programs in the state's overall top 30 in Providence (19th) and Episcopal (27th), who stand 1-2 in their region and combine for at least five future college players: Providence's Chris Arias (Jacksonville), David Fonville (High Point) and Caleb McAbee (Anderson), and Episcopal's Kent Jackson (Jacksonville) and Grady Schwartz (Tampa).
The rankings aren't just about bragging rights. The FHSAA will use them to assign district tournament seeding and later to allocate at-large playoff berths for non-district champions (four at-large slots per region per class).
A few more items of note from the new ranking releases across boys basketball, girls basketball, boys soccer and girls soccer:
Yes, it's early, but a few bubble battles already seem to be taking shape in boys hoops. Nease and Gainesville stand less than a sixth of a point apart for the final at-large berth in Region 1-6A, while barely one point separates Menendez, Clay and St. Augustine for the No. 8 spot in Region 1-5A.
Bishop Kenny, a final-four girls basketball qualifier for five consecutive seasons, has the inside track on a return trip with the No. 7 overall ranking (No. 3 in Class 4A). But the Crusaders' Region 1-4A is brutally tough, including four top-30 teams in Bolles, Ribault and Panama City Rutherford.
Could a girls basketball team with an .857 winning percentage really miss the regional playoffs? If the season ended now, St. Augustine (12-2) would be on the outside looking in for Region 1-5A, despite a No. 87 state ranking. They rank eighth in Region 1-5A, but one playoff slot will be reserved for the winner of District 3-5A, where White (5-6) is the highest-ranked school.
Unbeaten entering the Gateway boys soccer tournament, Mandarin (10-0-2) heads the statewide list for Class 7A. Going by the numbers, the Mustangs are Northeast Florida's strongest title contenders in boys soccer; Creekside is the only other area team to rank in the top eight of its class.
Girls soccer's state semifinals look set for a flood of Jacksonville-area teams. Leading their respective regions are Creekside (8-0-2, Region 1-7A), Ponte Vedra (13-1-1, Region 1-6A), Clay (8-1-1, Region 1-5A) and St. Johns Country Day (7-2-4, Region 1-2A). Creekside, Bartram Trail and Atlantic Coast rank first, second and fourth respectively in Class 7A.
Meanwhile, several of Northeast Florida's traditional powers have work to do. Currently, Bishop Kenny boys basketball (14th in Region 1-4A), Nease girls basketball (15th in Region 1-6A), Ponte Vedra boys soccer (17th in Region 1-6A) and Bolles girls soccer (12th in Region 1-3A) are among the teams in jeopardy of missing out.
Gateway girls basketball opens next week
Mandarin's repeat quest on the basketball court is almost here.
One year after the Mustangs won their first-ever Gateway Conference girls basketball championship, the 2023-24 edition opens with 12 Duval County public schools.
Balance stands out for Mandarin, who field four players averaging 9.7 points or more in seniors Nykeria Thomas, Kiyana Hunter and Kourtney Johnson and sophomore Mia Chandler. They topped Ribault 54-48 in last year's Gateway final.
That repeat bid faces a major challenge from 2023 Gateway runner-up Ribault, which already defeated Mandarin 48-43 on Dec. 11 and includes two double-figure scorers in senior Kayla Massey and junior Destiny Donaldson.
Paxon, Raines and rapidly-rising Atlantic Coast (12-1) are the only other Duval County public schools that entered the week above .500.
Howard, Henry head for Sunshine State
Out: Columbia and Provo. In: Gainesville and Boca Raton.
Those are the moves for Northeast Florida's defensive player of the year from 2022 and offensive player of the year from 2021.
Former Jackson linebacker Grayson Howard announced Tuesday that he is transferring from South Carolina after one season with the Gamecocks, and he's now setting his sights on Gator country by transferring to Florida.
Meanwhile, former Nease receiver Dom Henry announced his transfer from BYU to Florida Atlantic after two years in Utah.
Howard, who recorded 188 tackles, 18 for loss, five sacks and three fumble recoveries in 2022 while leading Jackson to its first district title for 13 years, had signed with South Carolina as a four-star Super 11 selection in December 2022.
He finished with 19 tackles and one forced fumble in his just-concluded freshman year with the Gamecocks, who finished 5-7 and did not qualify for a bowl game.
Henry appeared only sparingly in his two years at BYU, which he joined on National Signing Day in February 2022. He appeared in one game for the Cougars this season and did not catch a pass.
At Nease, he hauled in 81 receptions for a state-best 1,590 yards and 13 touchdowns while sparking the Panthers' run to the FHSAA regional semifinals in 2021.
St. Johns, Trinity set for NHSI baseball
The First Coast will be sending not one but two teams to USA Baseball's top high school showcase.
The National High School Invitational selected St. Johns Country Day and Trinity Christian for this year's 16-team field, scheduled from April 10-13 in Cary, N.C.
Trinity will be appearing at the NHSI for the third time after making the trip in 2016 and 2017, while St. Johns Country Day finished as runners-up in 2022.
St. Johns reached the FHSAA Class 2A title game last year before losing 5-2 to Lakeland Christian. Trinity Christian went 22-5 but lost in the regional first round to Bolles.
For the Conquerors, the event is also a potential showcase for three of the nation's top 2026 prospects in Brady Harris, Brayden Harris and Ethan Wheeler. The St. Johns Country Day roster includes several notable seniors, including University of North Florida-bound infielder Seth Alford and near-unhittable closer Trevor Bradley.
By the numbers: Tough soccer schedules
Are Northeast Florida's girls soccer schedules the most difficult in the Sunshine State?
Quite possibly, and now area coaches have the numbers to back it up.
As of this week's FHSAA ranking release, the association's formula ranks seven Jacksonville-area teams in its list of the 10 hardest schedules in the state. Class 2A power St. Johns Country Day topped Florida's list with a strength-of-schedule factor of 14.98, playing a schedule in which every opponent ranks in the top 10 in its region.
Not far behind: Bartram Trail (third-toughest), Beachside (sixth), Ponte Vedra (seventh), Tocoi Creek (eighth), Bolles (ninth) and Fleming Island (10th).
The coming week's action continues the pattern, including two major challenges for 8-0-2 Creekside on Friday against Ponte Vedra and next Tuesday against still-unbeaten Nease. Bartram Trail also faces off Friday against reigning Class 4A champion Bishop Moore in Orlando.
Wrestling to wrap boys regional duals
Thursday is decision day on the mat for regional duals in boys wrestling.
Regional duals wrap up statewide, including three regionals in the Jacksonville area, with the winners advancing to the duals state championships on Jan. 19-20 at Kissimmee Osceola.
Creekside is the host for the Region 1-3A meet, which also includes Bartram Trail, Flagler Palm Coast and Gainesville Buchholz. The Region 2-2A meet at Oakleaf is an all-Clay County contest matching Clay against Oakleaf and Middleburg against Fleming Island, while in Region 2-1A, host Fernandina Beach faces Union County and Episcopal competes against Baker County. Suwannee will compete in Region 1-1A, held at North Bay Haven.
Last Thursday marked the last of the area's district duals, with Fleming Island topping District 4-2A. The Golden Eagles proceeded to win Saturday's Joe Bees Memorial Battle at the Border in Yulee as well, including wins for Matthew Newman (113), Jordan Mukaddam (120), Joseph Forte (132), Laird Duhaylungsod (138), Kaden Schaefer (150) and Christopher Chop (175).
Around the area
Brunswick defensive lineman River Creel committed to Georgia Military College football. … Former Mandarin running back Terrell Jennings, now at Florida A&M, declared his eligibility for the NFL Draft. … Impact Christian named Jerrand Nesmith interim football coach. … Former Bishop Kenny and Nease track coach Steve Lyons and former Bartram Trail football coach Darrell Sutherland entered the Florida Athletic Coaches Association Hall of Fame on Saturday, and Duval County athletic director Tammie Talley received the association's Wink Barnette Award. FACA previously selected them for the awards in July. … USF midfielder Madison Schwartzenberger (Fletcher) and Virginia Tech goalkeeper Alia Skinner (Virginia Tech) are on the list of entrants for Friday's National Women's Soccer League draft. ... Middleburg has scheduled a celebration for its Class 5A champion volleyball team for 6 p.m. Jan. 16. … As reported by FloridaHSFootball.com, the FHSAA and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are nearing an agreement to hold state flag football championships at the Bucs' home beginning this spring after three consecutive editions at Mandarin. … Viera senior Izzy Starck won the Gatorade Player of the Year award in volleyball. … Monday marks the start of preseason practice for boys and girls tennis in the FHSAA. … Friday is the deadline for schools to appeal their football classifications for 2024-25 and 2025-26 in the FHSAA's new two-year cycle, which abolishes the Metro-Suburban system after two years.
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: High school basketball, soccer playoff race: FHSAA Jacksonville ranking
