Who should fill out Mets' bullpen in 2024? Breaking down internal and external options
The first sign that the Mets' 2023 season might not go as hoped came after Team Puerto Rico's win in the World Baseball Classic on March 15, as jubilation turned to stunned silence when Edwin Diaz went from celebrating with his teammates to writhing in pain on the field.
Diaz, who had been jumping up and down with the rest of the team, landed awkwardly and crumpled to the ground.
The Mets' closer was wheeled off the field as his brother and Team Puerto Rico teammate, Alexis, cried, and there really wasn't a need to wait for the results of the MRI Diaz would receive to know how bad this was.
Diaz had torn the patellar tendon in his right knee -- an injury that cost him the entire season and threw the rest of New York's bullpen into disarray.
Many, including me, argued even before Diaz's injury that the Mets were short in the bullpen. And his injury created a domino effect that made setup man David Robertson the closer and led to everyone else being shifted up in the pecking order.
Diaz's injury, coupled with a bullpen that was already thin before it -- due in part to then-GM Billy Eppler's misguided strategy of prioritizing having "optionable" relievers over known quality relievers -- dealt a serious blow to the Mets' chances before their season began.
And while Robertson was terrific in the closer role until being traded to the Marlins at the deadline, the Mets simply didn't have enough high-leverage relievers or reliable middle-inning relievers to withstand the loss of Diaz.
Diaz was nearing a return late in the season, but the Mets deemed it an unnecessary risk to activate him for meaningless games.
That means his first real action since suffering his knee injury will likely be this coming March, when the Mets open the season against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field.
With the bullpen needing a near-complete overhaul, who else will be in there with Diaz when the 2024 season starts?
The Locks
Diaz. That's it.
Beyond Diaz, there are two pitchers who seem pretty likely to be back.
The Mets hold a $6.5 million option on Brooks Raley for the 2024 season, and it would be shocking if they didn't pick it up after Raley excelled in 2023 following a strong season for the Rays in 2022.
Meanwhile, Adam Ottavino said toward the end of the season that he wasn't certain he would exercise his player option for 2024 that's for $7.25 million. However, it's hard to see Ottavino getting more on the open market -- and it's fair to believe he'll exercise the option.
That would give the Mets three members of a bullpen that will likely include eight pitchers, so they have serious work to do.
The Internal Candidates
The Mets have six relievers eligible for arbitration, including Drew Smith, Trevor Gott, Jeff Brigham, and Sam Coonrod.
I think it makes sense to retain Smith and cut ties with Gott, but all of the other big league relievers still under team control fall under a similar umbrella. Specifically, they have some upside, but it's impossible to rely on any of them.
The Mets trotted out relievers such as Jimmy Yacabonis, T.J. McFarland, Zack Muckenhirn, Dennis Santana, Tommy Hunter, Edwin Uceta, Vinny Nittoli, and Denyi Reyes last season, and they can't afford to rely on that many journeymen arms again.
That means they should possibly carry one arm from the Brigham, Coonrod, Grant Hartwig, John Curtiss, Sean Reid-Foley, and Phil Bickford group.
Beyond that, one interesting bullpen option is Tylor Megill, who could perhaps benefit from a full-time transition to relief.
The External Options
At the very least, the Mets need to add two legitimate relievers this offseason.
And a look at the pending free agents shows that there are some very intriguing names out there, including Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, and Craig Kimbrel.
As it pertains to Hader, the Mets pairing him with Diaz is tantalizing. But it's hard to see them giving Hader -- who will almost certainly be attached to a qualifying offer -- the years and dollars he'll be seeking when they already have Diaz.
Meanwhile, Hicks (durability concerns) and Kimbrel (consistency concerns) come with some red flags attached.
Another pending free agent is left-hander Matt Moore. He isn't the biggest name, but since transitioning to relief full-time, he's posted a 2.22 ERA (3.28 FIP) and 1.17 WHIP while striking out 142 in 125.2 innings (10.2 per 9).
Moore has serious crossover ability (righties slashed just .216.,272/.338 against him this season), but he did struggle against lefties this year -- which could be a one-season blip.
On the international free agent market, the Mets have scouted Cuban reliever Yariel Rodriguez, who pitched for Cuba in the 2023 WBC and excelled in Japan in 2021 and 2022.
On the trade market, David Bednar -- whose name has been floating around in trade rumors for a while -- would be a fantastic acquisition.
Bednar will be very expensive to acquire since he's under team control through 2026 and making next to nothing -- he earned just $745,000 in 2023, and will get a raise via arbitration this offseason.
The 29-year-old has been one of the best and most dominant relievers in baseball over the last three seasons, with a 2.25 ERA (2.56 FIP) and 1.06 WHIP with 226 strikeouts (11.3 per nine) in 179.2 innings over 172 appearances.
Pairing Diaz with Bednar would give the Mets the best 1-2 punch in baseball. But as is noted above, it will be expensive.
The Prospect
The Mets aren't brimming with relief prospects, but Nate Lavender is one to keep an eye on.
A 23-year-old left-hander, Lavender excelled for Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse this past season, with a 2.98 ERA and 1.19 WHIP as he struck out 86 batters in 54.1 innings -- an eye-popping 14.2 per nine.
Lavender is not overpowering and might not be on the roster on Opening Day, but he should be an option sooner rather than later.
