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From favorites to long shots, here's why your horse can — or can't — win Kentucky Derby

Jason Frakes, Louisville Courier Journal
·8 min read

Florida Derby winner Forte is the worthy favorite, but Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs offers several intriguing betting options.

Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice and Arkansas Derby titlist Angel of Empire are improving colts with solid chances to wear the roses.

And, of course, there are plenty of long shots who have created buzz on the backside the last two weeks.

With that in mind, The Courier Journal offers its annual breakdown of why each horse can and can’t win the Kentucky Derby — many serious, a few tongue in cheek, one destined to be right.

Horses are listed in post-position order:

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THE DRAW: What to know about the 2023 Kentucky Derby draw

1. Hit Show

Kentucky Derby hopeful Hit Show takes in the backside scene Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse placed second in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 8 and won the Wither Stakes in February. Trainer is Brad Cox.
Kentucky Derby hopeful Hit Show takes in the backside scene Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse placed second in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 8 and won the Wither Stakes in February. Trainer is Brad Cox.

Why he can win: His Beyer Speed Figures have improved every time he’s raced, and another jump Saturday would put him right in the mix.

Why he can’t win: Trainers say the new starting gate has alleviated some of the crowding issues involved with the No. 1 post position, but it’s still not ideal. The last winner from the No. 1 post was Ferdinand in 1986.

2. Verifying

Kentucky Derby contender Verifying shows his teeth while getting bathed Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse is trained by Brad Cox.
Kentucky Derby contender Verifying shows his teeth while getting bathed Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse is trained by Brad Cox.

Why he can win: Watch Brad Cox’s eyes light up when he speaks of this horse, and you get the feeling he’s sitting on a big one. Hard to knock a horse that finished just a neck behind Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass.

Why he can’t win: If you believe in the Derby gods, how do you feel about a son of Justify winning? Yes, Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018. But a failed drug test before the Kentucky Derby at least put an unofficial asterisk next to his accomplishments.

3. Two Phil’s

Kentucky Derby hopeful Two Phil's stands in his stall with trainer Larry Rivelli nearby after a workout Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.
Kentucky Derby hopeful Two Phil's stands in his stall with trainer Larry Rivelli nearby after a workout Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.

Why he can win: His victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks produced a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, the fastest number posted by any horse in the Derby. He’s also won at Churchill Downs, taking the Grade 3 Street Sense in October.

Why he can’t win: The “wise-guy” horse never wins the Derby, and Two Phil’s seems to be the one this year.

4. Confidence Game

Kentucky Derby hopeful Confidence Game trains Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse, who won the Rebel Stakes In February and the Lecomte Stakes in January, is trained by J. Keith Desormeaux.
Kentucky Derby hopeful Confidence Game trains Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse, who won the Rebel Stakes In February and the Lecomte Stakes in January, is trained by J. Keith Desormeaux.

Why he can win: He’s won twice at Churchill Downs and fired a bullet workout Saturday, going five furlongs in 59 seconds. Horse for the course?

Why he can’t win: He hasn’t raced since winning he Rebel on Feb. 25, and horses don’t win the Kentucky Derby off 10-week layoffs. He’s also never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles.

5. Tapit Trice

Kentucky Derby contender Tapit Trice was in a playful mood on the backside at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.
Kentucky Derby contender Tapit Trice was in a playful mood on the backside at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.

Why he can win: He’s won four straight races at four different tracks and may have caught Forte as the best horse in Todd Pletcher’s barn. A $1.3 million purchase, he’s the most expensive horse in the field.

Why he can’t win: Tapit is one of the top sires in North America, but his progeny is 0 for 13 in the Kentucky Derby. Tapit finished ninth in the 2004 Run for the Roses.

6. Kingsbarns

Kentucky Derby contender Kingsbarns works out on the track at Churchill Downs on Sunday morning, April 23, 2023 in Louisville, Ky.
Kentucky Derby contender Kingsbarns works out on the track at Churchill Downs on Sunday morning, April 23, 2023 in Louisville, Ky.

Why he can win: He’s undefeated in three career starts and has improved his speed figures every time. In a race with little early speed, he could be the one to beat at the quarter-pole.

Why he can’t win: The Louisiana Derby was slow, and that won’t be the case here. Only two horses have won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old — Apollo (1882) and Justify (2018).

7. Reincarnate

Kentucky Derby hopeful Reincarnate gets a scratch from Peter Hutton Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.
Kentucky Derby hopeful Reincarnate gets a scratch from Peter Hutton Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.

Why he can win: He’s never been worse than third in seven career starts, and he’s another who has early speed and should be close to the lead early. If he can sustain it, watch out!

Why he can’t win: Before being transferred to Tim Yakteen, Reincarnate was trained by Bob Baffert, who currently is suspended at Churchill Downs. Again, the Derby gods are watching.

8. Mage

Mage works out Wednesday with exercise rider J.J. Delgado on April 25, 2023 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Trainer is Gustavo Delgado.
Mage works out Wednesday with exercise rider J.J. Delgado on April 25, 2023 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Trainer is Gustavo Delgado.

Why he can win: If you like Forte, it’s hard to ignore Mage, who finished just a length behind the Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite in the Florida Derby.

Why he can’t win: Like Kingsbarns, Mage didn’t race as a 2-year-old and faces the Curse of Apollo/Justify. Jockey Javier Castellano is 0 for 15 in the Derby and never has finished better than third (Audible in 2018).

9. Skinner

Kentucky Derby contender Skinner, with exercise rider Donnie Balthazar on board, was led to the track by pony rider Monnie Goetz at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. Goetz was escorted by trainer John Shirreff's Giacomo to the post in the 2005 Derby then watched him win at odds of 50-1.
Kentucky Derby contender Skinner, with exercise rider Donnie Balthazar on board, was led to the track by pony rider Monnie Goetz at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. Goetz was escorted by trainer John Shirreff's Giacomo to the post in the 2005 Derby then watched him win at odds of 50-1.

Why he can win: Three straight Beyer Speed Figures in the 90s, and he was charging late while finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer John Shirreffs knows how to win the Run for the Roses with long shots, as his Giacomo won in 2005 at 50-1 odds.

Why he can’t win: With just one victory in six career starts, he feels like the classic “close but no cigar” type.

10. Practical Move

Kentucky Derby contender Practical Move inside his stall on Monday at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. May 6, 2023. The colt is trained by Tim Yakteen.
Kentucky Derby contender Practical Move inside his stall on Monday at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. May 6, 2023. The colt is trained by Tim Yakteen.

Why he can win: Three straight victories and two straight Beyer Speed Figures of 100 are hard to ignore. Yakteen seems more comfortable this year than he did last year in his Kentucky Derby debut, and that can only translate to good things for the horse.

Why he can’t win: A son of Practical Joke, there are serious doubts Practical Move can last the mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby.

11. Disarm

Kentucky Derby contender Disarm at bath time on the backside after a workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday morning, April 23, 2023 in Louisville, Ky. The horse is trained by Steve Asmussen and placed third in Grade 3 Lexington on April 15 at Keeneland.
Kentucky Derby contender Disarm at bath time on the backside after a workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday morning, April 23, 2023 in Louisville, Ky. The horse is trained by Steve Asmussen and placed third in Grade 3 Lexington on April 15 at Keeneland.

Why he can win: Steve Asmussen has to win the Kentucky Derby some time, right? After last year’s runner-up heartbreak with Epicenter, maybe it’s justice for Asmussen to win with a relative long shot.

Why he can’t win: His speed figures don’t match up with the best in this field, and his third-place finish three weeks ago in the Lexington at Keeneland was, at best, dull.

12. Jace’s Road

Kentucky Derby hopeful Jace's Road seems to enjoy being groomed during bath time after a workout Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse is trained by Brad Cox.
Kentucky Derby hopeful Jace's Road seems to enjoy being groomed during bath time after a workout Friday morning, April 28, 2023 at Churchill Downs. The horse is trained by Brad Cox.

Why he can win: Maybe he gets away with a moderate early pace and steals it.

Why he can’t win: He’s the fourth-best horse in the race from his own barn and hasn’t exactly loved Churchill Downs, finishing third and eighth in his two races there.

13. Sun Thunder

Kentucky Derby contender Sun Thunder during a workout at Churchill Downs on Monday morning, April 24, 2023 in Louisville, Ky. The trainer is Kenny McPeek. Sun Thunder came in fourth at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes; Tapit Trice was the winner.
Kentucky Derby contender Sun Thunder during a workout at Churchill Downs on Monday morning, April 24, 2023 in Louisville, Ky. The trainer is Kenny McPeek. Sun Thunder came in fourth at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes; Tapit Trice was the winner.

Why he can win: If Rich Strike can win the Kentucky Derby, why can’t another late runner like Sun Thunder?

Why he can’t win: Trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. are easy to like, but there’s not much else to like about this one.

14. Angel of Empire

Kentucky Derby contenders Angel of Empire, on the outside, and Jace's Road, inside, breeze together at the track Saturday, April 29, 2023, the week before the Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Both horses are trained by Brad Cox, who has four total contending in the Kentucky Derby May 6, 2023.
Kentucky Derby contenders Angel of Empire, on the outside, and Jace's Road, inside, breeze together at the track Saturday, April 29, 2023, the week before the Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Both horses are trained by Brad Cox, who has four total contending in the Kentucky Derby May 6, 2023.

Why he can win: Improving colt was impressive in a 4 ¼-length romp in the Arkansas Derby. Seems to get better the farther he runs.

Why he can’t win: Do you really trust a $70,000 horse that was bred in Pennsylvania and got his racing start at Horseshoe Indianapolis?

15. Forte

Kentucky Derby contender Forte prepares for a bath Saturday, April 29, 2023, the week before the Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
Kentucky Derby contender Forte prepares for a bath Saturday, April 29, 2023, the week before the Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Why he can win: With six wins in seven races, he has the best résumé of any horse in the field. The move he made to win the Florida Derby was eye-popping, and he has arguably the best jockey in the world in Irad Ortiz Jr. A worthy favorite.

THE FAVORITE: Forte gives billionaire owner best Kentucky Derby chance yet

Why he can’t win: Only two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Street Sense and Nyquist), and there are concerns Forte isn’t the same horse he was as a 2-year-old because of declining Beyer Speed Figures.

16. Raise Cain

Kentucky Derby contender Raise Cain on the track Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.
Kentucky Derby contender Raise Cain on the track Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.

Why he can win: He has the same sire, Violence, as Forte. Maybe he’s the favored son.

Why he can’t win: There’s little to no history to suggest he belongs in this field. A fifth-place finish in the Blue Grass doesn’t inspire confidence.

17. Derma Sotogake

Assistant trainer Takahide Ando for Kentucky Derby contender Continuar, foreground, points towards the quarantine barn assistant trainer Masanari Tanaka smiles aboard Derma Sotogake after a workout at the track April 25, 2023 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
Assistant trainer Takahide Ando for Kentucky Derby contender Continuar, foreground, points towards the quarantine barn assistant trainer Masanari Tanaka smiles aboard Derma Sotogake after a workout at the track April 25, 2023 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Why he can win: Japanese horses have made a splash on the world stage in recent years, and it’s just a matter of time before one wins the Kentucky Derby. His numbers from the UAE Derby suggest he’s fast enough to compete with the best here.

Why he can’t win: Horses coming from the UAE Derby are 0 for 18 all-time in the Kentucky Derby and have never even hit the board. The best finish came from Master of Hounds, who was fifth in 2011. The No. 17 post is 0 for 43 all-time in the Kentucky Derby.

18. Rocket Can

Kentucky Derby horse Rocket Can on the track on Sunday. April 23 2023 at Churchill Downs. Rocket Can, trained by Bill Mott, placed fourth in the Arkansas Derby in the 1-1/8 mile race, second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and first at the Holy Bull Stakes.
Kentucky Derby horse Rocket Can on the track on Sunday. April 23 2023 at Churchill Downs. Rocket Can, trained by Bill Mott, placed fourth in the Arkansas Derby in the 1-1/8 mile race, second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and first at the Holy Bull Stakes.

Why he can win: Perhaps it rains Saturday and Rocket Can repeats his victory in the slop in October at Churchill Downs. Adding blinkers could help with focus.

Why he can’t win: Nothing in his history suggests he’s fast enough to compete with the best here. The fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby doesn’t inspire confidence.

19. Lord Miles

Kentucky Derby contender Lord Miles outside his barn at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. Trainer is Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Kentucky Derby contender Lord Miles outside his barn at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. Trainer is Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Why he can win: He produced the best race of his career last time out, winning the Wood Memorial by a nose at 59-1 odds. Perhaps he takes another step forward here.

Why he can’t win: No horse coming out of the Wood Memorial has won the Kentucky Derby since Funny Cide in 2003. Even worse, since 2016, only one horse out of 13 coming out of the Wood has finished in the money — Tacitus (third in 2019).

20. Continuar

Assistant trainer Takahide Ando worked Continuar Wednesday April 25, 2023 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
Assistant trainer Takahide Ando worked Continuar Wednesday April 25, 2023 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Why he can win: Because you believe in miracles?

Why he can’t win: Exhaustion from all the time spent training at Churchill Downs the past few weeks.

Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @KentuckyDerbyCJ.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2023: Why 20 horses can or can't win at Churchill Downs