Favorite Week 17 NFL wagers
Minty Bets and Frank Schwab break down their best bets ahead of the loaded week 17 NFL slate. Can the Arizona Cardinals upset the red-hot Dallas Cowboys?
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Video Transcript
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MINTY BETS: Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It's Friday, December 31. Happy New Year's Eve. I'm your betting guide, Minty Bets, here with Frank Schwab to give you our favorite bets from the week 17 NFL schedule.
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This is the second to last week of the regular season, Frank. I can't believe everything that has happened that has led us to the end here. It's coming on so quickly, so let's finish off strong. What is your first pick for us?
FRANK SCHWAB: You know, Minty, I'm going to go with a team that maybe the casual fan doesn't know has been so good against a number, but bettors really have been riding this team, the Detroit Lions. They're plus 7 at the Seattle Seahawks. And there's a couple of angles here for you. First of all, the Detroit Lions are 10-5 against the spread, and there's a reason for that.
Every week they play hard. I was really skeptical of Dan Campbell when they signed him, but he has this team playing hard. And then I wondered, when they got their first win against the Vikings, OK, you got one win. Are you going to coast the rest of the season? No. They play hard every week. They got the win over the Cardinals two weeks ago. They got the cover against the Falcons last week. You could tell this team is still engaged.
They still want to play football. And they've just been good against the number week in, week out. And on the other side, we have a Seattle Seahawks team that you might look and see Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf and think that they're pretty good. They're not. This is a bad football team. They just lost to the Bears at home. I get it. It was snowy. It was a close game decided by that 2-point conversion. But still, this is not a vintage Seattle team, nowhere close even. I think the Lions can win this game.
And if you're going to tell me that, I'm definitely going to take the 7 points. I think the touchdown here is a gift. And this is one of my stronger plays of the season. I just think these are two teams that care in a lot different levels right now. I think the Lions want to win. I think they really are embracing the fact that, hey, we could win some games, go into the off season feeling good, whereas the Seattle Seahawks seem like one of those teams that's just ready for the offseason to end.
MINTY BETS: Yeah, I actually really love that pick there. They're sneaky good at covering the spread. They're fighters, and I love that pick. 7 points is way too much to be favored by for Seattle. Now Frank, would you sprinkle a little bit on the moneyline, plus 250?
FRANK SCHWAB: Absolutely. I think this is ripe. I think that, again, I just think the Lions are playing hard. They're going to be in every game. They'll be a little healthier this week. I think D'Andre Swift is going to be back. Jared Goff should be back off the COVID list. Everything lines up here. I think his line should be closer to 3. And if you're giving me plus 250 on the moneyline, absolutely I'm taking some of that.
MINTY BETS: Yeah, I love that one as well. And you know, the last two weeks are a little trickier to handicap, in my opinion. And we'll see quite a few upsets, so I actually am tempted to take the moneyline plus 250 there. Now, my absolute favorite bet on the board is the Cardinals plus 5 and 1/2 over the Cowboys. I bet on the Cowboys two weeks in a row, and they've been great. I've made money, and I can't complain.
After all the smack I talk about them, they came through for me. So thank you, Dallas. But this week, I'm pushing back on them. I love betting on the Cardinals as underdogs. And it was hard to find them in that role all season, because they started off the season winning seven straight games, and then they went into a skid, accumulating five losses and three straight people.
People are seeing that the Cowboys may be the real deal, and they're rolling against the spread. So that just means this is the perfect bounce back spot for Arizona. You're catching 5 and 1/2 points, which I think holds so much value. I do believe they win straight up in Dallas as well. So definitely sprinkle a little on the moneyline at plus 190. The Cardinals are 7-1 against the spread and straight up on the road this season, my friends. So you're welcome. Frank, what do you think about that one?
FRANK SCHWAB: Love it. If I was going to pick a third game, that would have been it, because I think this is the Recency Bias Bowl. Basically, everything that lines up for the way I like to bet, and I think the way you like to bet, is I like to go against public perception. The perception is that all of a sudden the Dallas Cowboys are the 1984 49ers. They're going to cruise to a Super Bowl. Didn't you see Sunday night, they blew out Washington? Well, you know what? Washington stinks. Who cares? Like, I'm not saying it wasn't an impressive performance. It was.
But less than a week ago, what were we talking about? Oh, Dak Prescott's struggling. Ezekiel Elliott looks washed up. The Cowboys are good, they're not great. Did one game really change that much? Meanwhile, the public perception on the Cardinals is just that they're cashed. They're done. They're never going to win a game again. I don't believe that. I still think that 10-2 team is somewhere still in there. I think that their backs are against the wall, and now they feel like they have to play well. I like it too.
I was wavering a little bit on the moneyline. I'm going to take a 5 and 1/2. But the fact that you like it, that you like them to win straight up there, I'll probably be sprinkling too. Because look, I'm going to lose some bets betting this way, but when one team is riding so high, one team is riding so low, you best believe I'm going to take the value on that line every time.
MINTY BETS: Absolutely. Now what's your second to pick for us?
FRANK SCHWAB: I'm going to go with-- and look, I probably contradict everything I just said, right? But I'm going with the Rams minus 3 and 1/2 against the Ravens. It's one of those games where, I get it, I'd like to go with the ugly dog here, the Ravens plus 3 and 1/2, but I just think the injury situation for them has piled up so much that they just can't compete in the secondary, especially.
They just allowed 525 yards to Joe Burrow, who hadn't been playing great. He'd been playing good, but not great, not 525 yards, four touchdowns great. He just torched them in the last game. They're not getting many reinforcements back on the defense. They'll be a little bit better at quarterback, for sure, whether it's Tyler Huntley, maybe Lamar Jackson makes a comeback here. But I think the Rams are poised. I don't want to say bounce back, because they won last week, but they didn't play their best ball. Matthew Stafford didn't have a great game. I think he wants to get back on track. And I just don't know how the Rams cover Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson even.
I'm throwing Van Jefferson into a couple of my lineups for championship week in fantasy, because I just think there's no way the Rams don't score 30 in this game, and I don't know that the Ravens can keep up with that. I respect the heck out of the Ravens as an organization, but the injuries have just caught up to them so much. From training camp on to today, they've lost so many guys. I was actually shocked by this line, that it's only 3 and 1/2, based on what the Ravens are at this point in the season.
They're kind of name only at this point. They're reputation only at this point. They're not a good defensive team. I don't think they can keep up offensively, except Mark Andrews, who puts up 100 yards every week. So I'm going to be on the Rams pretty confidently here. I don't love him road favorites, but this is a prime spot for me where I think the Rams really play well.
MINTY BETS: Yeah, I agree with you. I feel like with all the injuries on the Ravens, the Rams should be favored by a little bit more. I lean the Rams with you, but I'll certainly be interested to see how this one plays out, because lots of respect for the Ravens. I mean, imagine if they had no injuries coming into the season how good they would have been. So very interested to see how this one plays out.
FRANK SCHWAB: You know, I will agree with you, Minty. It's hard to go against John Harbaugh, honestly. Like, if it wasn't for Bill Belichick, John Harbaugh reminds me almost of like Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing, where if they didn't play in the same era as Jordan, we'd think of them as much greater than they are. Same with John Harbaugh. He just has to go against Belichick in the same conference. But he's good year in, year out. So I do expect a great effort out of the Ravens, I just don't think they have a lot left. So Minty, what's your last game on the schedule?
MINTY BETS: My last game, I'm heading to the AFC West with the Broncos and Chargers. LA is favored by 6 and 1/2 points, which I think is excessive. In order to win our bet, betting on the Chargers, they'd have to win by 7. So looking at their game logs, they've only won by 7 or more points four times in their eight wins this season.
So that's 50%. But man, the Chargers keep things pretty close in their wins. And historically, against the Broncos, they have not done well covering the spread, going only 2-5 against the spread their last seven. This is a divisional game, and it's going to come down to the wire. As favorites, the Chargers are 4-6 against the spread this season.
I don't trust them as favorites, especially at home. They have no home field advantage whatsoever. So I'm taking the Broncos to cover plus 6 and 1/2. I love that number. I'd honestly bet it now, or you can be a little risky and wait until closer to kickoff to see if you can get plus 7. Now Frank, I know, although you are based in Denver, you are very wise and sound when it comes to speaking about Broncos matchups. Talk to me about this one.
FRANK SCHWAB: You know, I'd love to make it a clean sweep, kumbaya. We all are totally all in on every game. And I'm not saying I'm going against the Broncos here, but I'm not with them either, just because Drew Lock scares the heck out of me. He's just not a viable starting quarterback.
I don't even know if he's a viable backup for the Broncos going forward. We saw last week, I think he had eight first downs, 160 some yards of offense against the Raiders. Look, the Chargers, the match-up is really good for the Broncos here, in that if they want to establish the run, the Chargers can stop the run. They've been giving up yards to running backs like crazy all year.
So I get where you're coming from. I'll probably, like in my pick 'em pools or whatever, I'll pick the Broncos. Not going to invest in Drew Lock though. I'm sorry. You're on your own with this one, Minty. I can't spend three hours trying to get Drew Lock over the finish line. It just is not going to happen. But I can't say I disagree with you, necessarily. I don't trust the Chargers either, really. It's one of those games that I'm probably just could be sitting out.
MINTY BETS: Yeah. I think this one for me is more of a bet against the Chargers, and you know, them winning by a score, than it is on the Broncos. So just to recap our picks, we have the Lions plus 7, Cardinals plus 5 and 1/2, Rams minus 3 and 1/2, and Broncos plus 6 and 1/2. You can follow me on Twitter over @MintyBets and Frank over @YahooSchwab. And follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sportsbook. Create a BetMGM account and place your first bet risk free up to $1,000.
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