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Farewell to NFL home-field advantage, as home teams have a losing record through 5 weeks

Frank Schwab
NFL writer
·3 min read
106

The Jacksonville Jaguars might want to spend the rest of the season in London.

The Jaguars' home away from home was good to them. They beat the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills to get their season back on track. They're 3-2. The problem might be that they have to play six more games in Jacksonville.

The Jags exemplify one important part of the NFL in 2023: Home-field advantage doesn't matter anymore. The Jaguars have played two games in Jacksonville, and they're 0-2 there. They've played three games outside of Jacksonville and won all three.

Home-field advantage has been dwindling for a while, and this might be the season it bids farewell completely. NFL home teams have posted a losing record through five weeks.

Road teams have a winning record

Road teams in the NFL are 41-37 this season. If you take out the two London games — the Jaguars were the designated home team in one and the road team in the other — it's 40-36.

The only time in recent history that NFL home teams finished with a losing record, it came with an asterisk. In 2020, when the NFL played in front of empty or partially full stadiums during the COVID-19 pandemic, home teams went 127-128-1. It was a weird year.

But it signaled a shift. Home-field advantage had dipped in 2019, with home teams winning 52% of the time. That was the lowest mark since 1972, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Even if 2020 was strange, in 2021 home teams won at just a 51.1% rate. It rebounded in 2022 to a 56.7% winning percentage for home teams, but has disappeared again in 2023. It looks like 2022 was the recent outlier.

For whatever reason — cozier travel, less raucous crowds in cozy, modern and expensive new stadiums, officials being more aware of a long-term trend of home teams getting more calls — there has been no edge for home teams this season.

New York Jets cornerback Bryce Hall (37) celebrates during a Jets road win at the Denver Broncos in Week 5. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Road teams are covering, too

In the betting world, road teams have held an edge for a while due to the point spread. From 2004, road teams had a winning record against the spread in 14 of 19 seasons, according to SportsOddsHistory.com.

It should be no surprise that road teams are covering at a healthy rate this season. Road teams are 41-32-5 (56.2%) ATS this season, according to Covers.com. Road favorites are 17-12-2 (58.6%) and road underdogs are 24-20-3 (54.6%). No matter the situation, road teams have been the right play. The standard for years was to give NFL teams about three points on the spread for home-field advantage. Then it shifted to 2.5 or less. Maybe home teams don't deserve any points at all anymore.

The Dallas Cowboys' game at the Los Angeles Chargers might be the pinnacle of home field not mattering. Since moving from San Diego, the Chargers have one of the smallest fan bases in the NFL. The Cowboys have the largest. The question at SoFi Stadium on Monday night won't be which team has more fans, but if the Cowboys crowd will reach 80% or more. Oddsmakers know there's no home-field edge for the Chargers. The Cowboys are 2-point favorites at BetMGM.

It's just five weeks and as weather gets worse, perhaps home teams get better. A 76-game sample size isn't enough to assume a trend is permanent. But it seems to be telling.

For decades, it was a given that going on the road was a difficult proposition. This season, if you're a season-ticket holder your chances of seeing your favorite team win are a little worse than 50-50.