Fantasy Over/Under: Should owners be Bearish on Alshon?

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don’t, and you’re painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here’s our view on six intriguing over/unders for the upcoming season.

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This Preseason, Carson Palmer has withered under the scorching Arizona sun. After a 35-TD campaign last fall, vertical strikes in the follow up 32.5.

Brad – OVER. I realize Palmer has impossibly channeled the pro football ghost of Matt Leinart this month, but there’s no reason for consternation. Last checked, he’s still at the helm of an explosive, balanced offense and coming off a campaign in which he ranked top-five among passers in yards per attempt, passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. John Brown’s ongoing headaches amplify concern, but with trusty rock Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and David Johnson as weapons, he’s in a nourishing fantasy environment. A final TD tally in the 33-35 range seems appropriate, assuming 16 games played.

Dalton – UNDER. I obviously love his weapons, and Palmer played at an MVP level last season, getting 8.7 YPA, but it was also the first time he ever threw for more than 32 touchdowns. I’m not overly concerned about his implosion in the playoffs or this year’s shaky preseason, but Palmer is 36 years old with a pretty extensive injury history, and he’d have to stay fully healthy in 2016 to reach this mark.

Scott – UNDER. I’m not thrilled about how the season ended for Palmer, I’m not thrilled with the summer, and I’m especially concerned with John Brown’s headaches and Larry Fitzgerald’s aches and pains. I also can envision the Arizona defense controlling a lot of games.

Sticking with the quarterback theme, with Tony Romo sidelined reportedly up to 10 weeks, Dak Prescott will drive the heard for Dallas for the foreseeable future. Final fantasy rank, in points per game, among signal callers Weeks 1-7 15.5 (OVER = outside the top-15; Under = inside).

Dalton – OVER. He looked terrific in the preseason, and Prescott’s rushing ability helps his fantasy value for sure, but this is still a raw passer who was a question mark to even make an NFL roster a few months ago. Expect a basic game plan by Dallas, with a lot of Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott should be more of a mid to low-end QB2, not a high one.

Scott – OVER. To be fair, the fade is the percentage play most of the time with these types of questions. Because Quarterback 2016 is the ultimate shopper’s paradise, I’m going to let others dream of Prescott hitting something very high up oh his range of outcomes. I will concede he’s one of the hardest players to rank right now, and someone I am excited to watch play in real games.

Brandon – OVER. His rushing ability should push him close to this mark, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him crack the individual-week top 10 a few times, but it’s a brutally tough position for a rookie, and you can almost guarantee inconsistency. Plus, his ceiling will be curbed by a game plan that will likely lean heavily to the run side. I’ll give him a top 20 nod, but not quite top 15.

Through three games, the Bears have resembled a group of bumbling morons this preseason, totaling just 29 points – much of it generated by the second and third teams. Final season-long fantasy rank for Alshon Jeffery among wide receivers 10.5. (Over = outside the top-10; Under = inside)

Scott – OVER, but not by a lot. Jay Cutler loves to force it to his “circle of trust” guys, and that’s a small circle entering 2016. I have no problem grabbing Jeffery in the middle of Round 2.

Brandon – UNDER. I’m bullish on this Bear. I think the set-up is perfection for Jeffery to hoard targets. I don’t think the Bears defense is anything special, perhaps not any better than the unit that gave up nearly 25 points per game a season ago. And I don’t think the Bears backfield will be able to keep the sticks moving with regularity. To me, this is a team that will be forced to throw often even though it prefers not to. If he stays healthy, Jeffery could be among the league’s target leaders. And, yes, I know health was an issue last season, but let’s not write off the two 16-game campaigns – two top 12 seasons I might add – that preceded it. There are players we are investing more in on draft day that have as bad, or worse, health histories.

Brad – OVER. Temperatures in Chicago are already arctic-like and the calendar hasn’t even flipped to September. The Bears first-string offense has been nothing short of disastrous this preseason. Drops, unpolished routes, poor-blocking — the Mice of the Midway are on display.

Jeffery is a sensational talent with the length, separation skills and track record of a WR1, but his persistent soft-tissue issues and matchups against the opposition’s top corner are red flags. Unless Kevin White actually learns how to finish a route and conquers his concentration lapses, double teams on No. 17 will be frequent. Couple that with Jay Cutler’s erratic play and Jeffery is completely avoidable at his early Round 3 price point (27.8 ADP) in 12-team leagues.

Latavius Murray, who has owners worried after barely making a peep in the Raiders dress rehearsal, combined yards this yards 1,349.5.

Brandon – OVER. Murray has his issues, but this is about opportunity, and Murray’s should be massive. Oakland ranked in the upper half in the league in pass attempts last season and only 25th in RB rush attempts. If head coach Jack Del Rio has his way, that ratio will be flipped this year. And with an emerging defense and bolstered offensive line poised to take another step forward in ’16, I think Del Rio will have his way. Murray should see something close to 300 carries as his backups are ill-suited to a featured role, and let’s not forget that he made strides in the passing game last season, finishing 16th among RBs in receptions (41). Murray only needs to pad his ’15 total by roughly 50 yards to make this mark and the only thing that I can see keeping him from doing that is injury.

Brad – UNDER. Jack Del Rio has maintained his support for Murray as a workhorse citing earlier this summer he plans to feed the youngster another 300-plus times. Still, the incumbent tired down the stretch last season, evidenced in his repugnant 3.2 yards per carry and No. 26 RB rank from Week 11 on. If he grinds to a halt again over the second half, rookie hotshot DeAndre Washington is due to wrest away touches. Throw in his susceptibility to injury due to his upright running style and only average contributions in the pass game and it’s smart to bet the under. Even if he survives the season a final tally around 1,250 combined yards with 7-9 TDs is plausible.

Dalton – UNDER. He fell more than 50 yards shy of this mark while staying healthy and totaling 307 touches last season. The Raiders have a strong offensive line with young skill position players, so the offense could take a leap in 2016, but this is an awful lot to ask. Murray got just 3.3 YPC over the final eight games last year, and he has to face the tough Denver and Kansas City defenses four times.

WR wrangle. Among those NOT NAMED STERLING SHEPARD, who strings together the best fantasy season among those seeing their first regular-season action: Tajae Sharpe, Tyler Boyd, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller or Wildcard?

Brad – MICHAEL THOMAS. Early in the Preseason Thomas was the rookie wideout everyone wanted to get their mitts on. His size, athleticism and trust from Drew Brees catapulted his ADP from the deepest recesses into the low 100s overall. Though the shine has warn off, he remains an appealing option. This is a Saints offense, after all, that’s surpassed 627 pass attempts in six straight years. If Marques Colston can eclipse 1,000 yards and total eight TDs in his rookie campaign, an equally, if not more, talented Thomas could be up to the task. Invest in the system. Count the points.

Dalton – TAJAE SHARPE. Others among this group have more long-term upside, but Sharpe is the favorite to see the most targets right away, as he currently looks like Tennessee’s No. 1 wide receiver. The Titans clearly plan on running a ton, but Marcus Mariota has plenty of upside and should show growth in year two.

Scott – I’m a TYLER BOYD believer. I can shrug off his mediocre combine season; look at the numbers and the tape he accumulated at Pitt. The Bengals need Boyd right away, and any time the question becomes “Player X or Brandon LaFell”, you better believe I’m doing a LaFell fade.

Jeremy Hill, seeking redemption after last year’s failures on the ground and in the Wildcard Round, rushing yards this time around for the Queen City Cats 999.5.

Dalton – OVER. I also think he’s going to reach double-digit touchdowns. I expect to see Hill look far more like he did during his rookie campaign than last year’s disappointing version, and the Bengals are going to turn to a more power scheme after losing so weapons in the passing attack. Hill is primed for a big bounce back season.

Scott – OVER, perhaps way over. And even if the yards somehow fall through, Hill has a very high floor for touchdowns. And to be fair, I also expect Gio Bernard to have a solid fantasy year in all formats, as his touchdown rate will probably go back to where it was in 2014-2015. The Bengals don’t have a third mouth to feed in their backfield, which is a key factor entering NFL 2016. We used to squirm at the mere mention of a committee; today, a two-headed monster is actually unthreatening to fantasy players.

Brandon – OVER. I’ve got Hill down as the best RB value in drafts based on an ADP that has him going regularly around No. 20 at the RB position – he’s finished inside the top 15 each of his first two seasons, and that includes last season’s dud performance in which his YPC mark dropped 1.5 from his rookie season (5.1 to 3.6). Hill’s looked great this preseason and I expect Cincy to be very run heavy with defections and injuries leaving the Bengals’ passing game a waste land outside of A.J. Green. With plenty of carries to be had, I see Hill powering his way back over the 1K yardage mark.

BONUS ROUND: Predict Spencer Ware’s final 2016 line (rushes-yards-recs-yards-total TDs).

Scott – Ware is my most-owned commodity through 60 drafts, so I might be the wrong guy to ask. Give him 140-688-30-175-7 for now, and bump those numbers up significantly if Jamaal Charles has any kind of a setback. Understand that it’s as much about the upside as it is the projectability for Ware right now; he’s a perfect target for the middle of your draft.

Brandon – 148-650-22-150-6

Brad – 198-863-26-144-8

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