Fantasy Update: More questions than answers after qualifying at Kansas
It was a standard practice session at Kansas Speedway. The teams that were expected to be the frontrunners entering the weekend backed up that educated guess. Qualifying was a different story, with just two Toyotas advancing to the final round and William Byron, who had the fastest car on 10 and 20-lap averages in practice, slapped the wall and will start 36th. I‘m still leaning Toyota heavy this weekend, believing that the manufacturer will show out in the AdventHealth 400.
RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineups
Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Denny Hamlin
Starter 2: Kyle Larson
Starter 3: Christopher Bell
Starter 4: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 5: Tyler Reddick
Garage pick: Bubba Wallace
NEXT IN LINE: William Byron, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Noah Gragson
RISING: The Noah Gragson comeback tour made its most recent stop at Kansas. The No. 10 car looked to be the best Ford in the field through practice and qualifying, cracking the top five in single-lap speed and dropping to 12th — still the fastest Ford — on 10-lap averages. Gragson backed that speed up in qualifying with a career-best fourth-place starting position. Gragson is coming off consecutive top-10 finishes and continues building momentum.
After the dismal month of April, Christopher Bell needed something to go his way. It finally did at Kansas, as he scored his first pole award of the 2024 season. Toyota has been lights out at Kansas in the Next Gen era, and the No. 20 team has three top 10s in those four races. It feels like this is the weekend where Bell can get his season turned in the right direction.
FALLING: With how fast Byron was in practice, it‘s possible that I regret pulling the No. 24 car from my lineup entirely. But he even said following scuffing the wall through Turns 1 and 2 on his qualifying lap that it‘s going to be an uphill battle to earn stage points in the opening stage. Knowing how strong Byron has been to start 2024, this is more of a strategic maneuver as there will be opportunities aplenty to have the No. 24 car in your lineup this season.
Qualifying 25th isn‘t ideal for Wallace, but that‘s where he will take the green flag from at one of his best race tracks. The 23XI Racing cars were both inside the top 10 on the long run in practice, which is why he‘s still in my lineup.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson: Kansas is in the wheelhouse of both drivers, as they‘ve combined to win four of the last nine races. And I feel like a broken record, but Hamlin was another Toyota driver who didn‘t turn down a heater in qualifying yet cracked the top five on 10-lap averages in practice. Larson was solid across the board and qualified fourth, so I‘m going to flip my pick from earlier this week and go with the No. 5 car.
Bubba Wallace vs. Chase Elliott: Elliott had a solid practice and qualifying session on Saturday and is the most recent winner on an intermediate track. Wallace will be disappointed in his qualifying effort, but it shouldn‘t affect his race much as he‘ll need to weave throughout the field. Sticking with a recent Kansas winner in Wallace, though Hendrick Motorsports once again showed up with speed that rivals Toyota.
Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell: With how tough of a month Bell has had, you might think he crossed paths with a black cat, walked under a ladder or even shattered a mirror. After winning the pole, he said his primary goal is to just see the checkered flag on Sunday. Reddick was the first to the checkered flag last fall despite not being content with his speed. The bad fortune must stop sooner rather than later for Bell, and it could come as early as Sunday. Making the switch to the No. 20 car.
Martin Truex Jr. vs. William Byron: Truex had a quiet Saturday, despite being inside the top five on long-run pace. Byron looked like he was the class of the field until he got into the wall during his qualifying lap. The bodies of the Next Gen cars are incredibly durable and there was no cosmetic damage to the No. 24 car, so the only hindrance he believes will be track position. A lot can change over 400 miles, but I‘m sticking with the No. 19 car not knowing if the damage will actually change the handling of Byron‘s car.
