Fantasy Football Week 7 Start 'Em Sit 'Em
Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Note that some players are targeted for DFS. Good luck with your Week 7 lineups!
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Start: Jahmyr Gibbs
Start in DFS: Mark Andrews ($23)
Gibbs has been removed from the injury report and should get could plenty of work Sunday. The rookie was given Detroit’s up-the-middle carries the last time David Montgomery was out, and Craig Reynolds is dealing with multiple injuries (and was ineffective last week aside from his highlight block). Baltimore is a tougher matchup, but Gibbs is well worth starting during a tough week for fantasy backs.
Andrews’ target rate has dropped from third (29.3%) to 11th (20.9%) among tight ends this season, but he’s still averaged the second-most fantasy points at the position. He gets a possibly highly favorable matchup this week against a much-improved Detroit defense that’s limited wide receivers and completely shut down running backs but has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points (and the second-most catches) to tight ends this year.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears
Start: Michael Mayer, DJ Moore
Mayer’s snap rate has seen a big jump over the last two games, including a season-high last week when he led the Raiders in receiving. The rookie tight end posted a 31.1% target share during his final season at Notre Dame and could suddenly be helpful at an ugly fantasy position. The Bears have allowed the most catches to tight ends this season, and Mayer looked like a future star in college.
Assuming Davante Adams doesn’t get all the targets Sunday, Mayer is a solid fantasy start.
Moore has a whopping 44% first-read target share that’s second-best in the league over the last month. After an invisible first half, Moore had most of his production after Justin Fields left last week, seeing a 43% target share from Tyson Bagent. Moore has gotten the second-most yards per route run versus man this season; the Raiders have ceded the highest YPA (9.2) and Passer Rating (125.9) when using that coverage. “Bagent Zero” had a decorated college career and has a world-champion arm wrestler dad, so don’t write off Chicago’s new quarterback.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
Start: Jerome Ford
Sit: Michael Pittman Jr.
Kareem Hunt saw his most work last week, but Ford still managed 19 touches. Ford is second only to De’Von Achane this season in YPC after contact. The Browns are averaging the third-most rush attempts per game — opponents have attempted the second-most rush attempts against the Colts this season — and that should only increase with a hobbled Deshaun Watson starting Sunday. Cleveland has a dominant defense that’s allowed the fewest total yards over its first five games since 1971, which helps game scripts. The Colts have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, making Ford a borderline top-12 RB this week, especially if Hunt is unable to go due to a thigh injury.
Pittman has seen a healthy target rate from Gardner Minshew, although the QB once again struggled last week when the defense was prepared for him to start. But the Colts get a stout Browns defense allowing an NFL-low 3.8 yards per play and the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers by a mile. Wideouts have totaled just 94.2 yards per game versus Cleveland this season — the next lowest is 119.0. The Browns have ceded just one touchdown to a WR in 2023, so Pittman deserves bench consideration if you have alternatives.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Start: Bills D/ST
Sit: All Patriots but Rhamondre Stevenson
Only the Giants have been a better opponent for fantasy defenses than the Patriots in 2023, as Mac Jones has already thrown as many pick-sixes at home as Tom Brady did throughout his New England career. The Patriots are getting the fourth-fewest yards per play, including just 4.1 at home. Buffalo’s defensive front should maul an injury-riddled New England offensive line.
Stevenson saw a bigger workload last week despite departing with an injury at one point, and the running back landscape is thin in Week 7. But with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas returning to limited practices, the Patriots should go back to rotating their receivers (hurting Kendrick Bourne). Mac Jones ranks 31st in fantasy points per dropback (and per game), while a banged-up Hunter Henry is losing snaps to Mike Gesicki. The Bills are allowing the sixth-lowest EPA/play, so plant most Patriots on fantasy benches.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Start in DFS: Brian Robinson ($21)
Start: Darren Waller
Robinson’s schedule finally eases up this week against a Giants defense allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (132.7) to running backs (New York is also the only team that ranks bottom-five in yards per play and yards per play allowed, so game script shouldn’t be an issue). Robinson continues to dominate Washington’s ground game (although Chris Rodriguez saw work last week), and he has the eighth-most carries inside the five-yard line (Robinson was tackled at the one last week). Terry McLaurin has zero red-zone targets this season, so touchdowns should be there for Robinson, especially when game scripts cooperate.
Waller has faced a brutal schedule and has suffered from the Giants’ devastated and league-worst offensive line. But he’s seen 18 targets over the last two games, including his first target inside the five last week from Tyrod Taylor. Taylor looks like a neutral move at worst compared to a hobbled Daniel Jones, who is expected to sit again, and Washington has a vulnerable secondary.
BONUS: Jalin Hyatt saw a big spike in playing time last week and is a deep sleeper against a Commanders defense yielding the most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sit: Tyler Allgeier, Rachaad White
In a week with six byes, these backs might understandably be needed. But Allgeier is seeing few targets and getting just 3.2 YPC. He was given 30 carries over the last two games but failed to be a top-30 RB during either week despite home matchups. Desmond Ridder has gotten 5.5 YPA with one touchdown pass over four career road games, so game script could be an issue. Tampa Bay has ceded the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and the second-lowest EPA/rush this season, so Allgeier is a bench candidate.
White is getting a lowly 3.3 YPC this season despite seeing the highest carry rate against light fronts. A tough schedule hasn’t helped, but he’s yet to record a single run for 15 yards. White saw his lowest opportunity share of the season coming out of Tampa Bay’s bye last week, when Ke’Shawn Vaughn got just one fewer carry. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs and the fourth-lowest EPA/rush, so seek alternatives for White this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams
Sit: Najee Harris
Start in DFS: Cooper Kupp ($34)
Harris hasn’t been a top-40 fantasy back this season, getting outscored by Jaylen Warren every single week. The Rams have been far better than expected on defense, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs despite a difficult schedule (including Kenneth Walker III, Christian McCaffrey, Zack Moss and D’Andre Swift). To Harris’ credit, he ranks top-10 in rush yards over expectation, and Diontae Johnson’s return should help Pittsburgh’s offense. But Matt Canada (Blame Canada!) and a tough matchup make Harris a bench candidate this week.
Kupp accounted for 101 of the Rams’ 123 yards in the first half last week, when he finished with the second-most receiving yards (148) and as fantasy’s No. 3 wideout. He’s seen a whopping 39% target share since returning, while Matthew Stafford continues to play far better than his stats suggest. Kupp stands out in DFS this week with no Tyreek Hill on the main slate and Stefon Diggs/Keenan Allen in tougher, outdoor matchups. The Steelers have yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and have been even worse when schedule adjusted. Fire up Kupp in DFS this week.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Start: Marquise Brown, Geno Smith
Brown has the third-highest air yardage share (48%) over the last month, and Joshua Dobbs has just missed him for long scores in three straight games. Dobbs has regressed, but Brown is due to cash in some big plays. The Cardinals should be pass-heavy Sunday facing a Seahawks team with one of this week’s highest implied team totals and with a defense ranked No. 1 against the run in DVOA. Seattle’s secondary is improving, but the Seahawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Opponents have also averaged an NFL-high 40 pass attempts per game against Seattle.
The Seahawks have struggled in the red zone, but Smith’s volume has been there. He’s averaging the fourth-most red-zone passes and the second-most end-zone attempts per game. Seattle has one of the league’s highest pass rates over expectation, while Smith is sporting the league’s best completion percentage above expectation. The Seahawks’ offensive line is also getting healthier, and they get a fast-paced matchup this week against an Arizona defense that’s last in pressure rate. The Cardinals are also allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, so Smith is a strong start this week.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Start: Romeo Doubs, Russell Wilson
Doubs’ targets fell during Christian Watson’s return, but he saw 25 the previous two games. Watson could be shadowed by Patrick Surtain in Week 7, putting Doubs in a highly favorable matchup. It’s unclear how many snaps Aaron Jones is healthy enough to play, and Jordan Love should bounce back following the team’s bye. Denver is yielding an NFL-high 6.7 yards per play (next worst is 6.1) and sports the second-lowest pressure rate, so Doubs (and Luke Musgrave) is a solid Week 7 fantasy start.
Wilson’s 7.1 YPA is a career-low this season (and that’s with a completed Hail Mary), but his TD rate (6.5% that’s third best in the league) has helped him be a top-12 fantasy QB. It’s a concern long term, but Wilson can be started during a thin week in a matchup with the third-highest over/under on the slate (the Broncos have a higher implied team total than the Chargers).
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Start in DFS: Keenan Allen ($31), Isiah Pacheco ($23)
Allen racked up another 11 targets in a difficult matchup against Dallas on Monday night despite Austin Ekeler’s return. He’ll admittedly get another, tougher test matched up with Trent McDuffie this week, but the Chargers are likely to be throwing a ton. This matchup will be high-paced and has the second-highest total of the week, so Allen is a DFS option this week.
Pacheco’s RB rush share continues to increase and hit a season high (89%) last week. He’s even top 10 among backs in receiving yards this year. Pacheco routinely benefits from positive game scripts and will be helped Sunday by a Kansas City offense with the highest implied team total on the DFS slate. The Chargers are yielding the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs, so Pacheco is undervalued during a tricky week.
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Start: Tua Tagovailoa, D’Andre Swift
Both teams have condensed usage with their stars, so forgive me if these “starts” are obvious.
Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 14 passing TDs despite Miami’s RBs rushing for 15 touchdowns — only six teams have totaled more touchdowns this season. Tagovailoa’s league-best 8.9 YPA last season was supposed to regress in 2023, but it’s risen to 9.5 instead. The best YPA season in the modern ERA was Kurt Warner (9.88) in 2000. Only four modern-era QBs have ever posted seasons with 9.5 YPA or better, and none reached even 350 attempts. The gap between the Dolphins and the No. 2 team in yards per play is wider than that of the No. 2 team and No. 32!
We are witnessing a historic offense that’s lapping the field in pre-snap motion. Tagovailoa gets a funnel Eagles defense that’s tough against the run but allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (and the fourth-most pass attempts against).
Swift is among the leaders in rush yards over expectation and ranks top-five in RB receptions despite barely playing Week 1 (and having a QB who’s rarely thrown to backs in his career). He saw 20 of Philadelphia’s 27 RB opportunities last week and gets a much easier matchup Sunday night. The Dolphins haven’t given up more fantasy points to running backs this season thanks to game scripts (and schedule), as they’ve allowed the 10th-most EPA/rush and rank 25th in run defense DVOA. Sunday night’s matchup should be close and has the highest total of the week. Fire up Swift in prime time.
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Brandon Aiyuk, Alexander Mattison
Aiyuk leads all receivers in air yardage share (62%!) over the last month and should be busy Monday night with Deebo Samuel out and Christian McCaffrey battling injury if he's able to play. The 49ers have one of the highest implied team totals and play indoors against a Minnesota defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Aiyuk is a top-10 WR this week.
Mattison saw his second-largest snap share of the season last week, when he had 25 opportunities compared to just two for Cam Akers. Mattison is still searching for his first rushing score on the year, but he’s seen healthy usage in the red zone. San Francisco ranks second against the pass but 22nd versus the run in DVOA, and Mattison will be relied on more with Justin Jefferson still sidelined. He’s a fine fantasy start in a week when running back gets thin quick.
