Fantasy Football Week 18 Start Sit Decisions: Play Jordan Mason

Quarterback

Start: Tyrod Taylor, Giants

Taylor has started and finished three games this year. He has finished the week as a QB1 in two of those games. Taylor has at least five carries in all three of his complete games. He also leads the Giants’ quarterbacks in yards per attempt, EPA per play, CPOE, and Pro Football Focus passing grade. Facing a Philly defense that has given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, Taylor is an elite streaming option and has cheap stacking partners for DFS purposes.

Start: Geno Smith, Seahawks

Needing a win and some help to get into the playoffs, Vegas likes Seattle to put up points in droves in an effort to secure step one of their postseason bid. Seattle has the second-highest implied team total of the week at 25 points. They get an Arizona defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks last in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed.

Sit: Baker Mayfield, Bucs

The Bucs should win this game as most other teams to face the Panthers before them have. Still, that hasn’t stopped the Panthers from looking like the Steel Curtain against quarterbacks. No team has given up fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Panthers. Carolina has faced the fewest pass attempts in the league and no team has allowed fewer yards—passing or rushing—to quarterbacks.

Sit: Sam Howell, Commanders

Howell is getting the start again this week, but Vegas predicts a drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys. The Commanders have a 16.5-point implied team total and may be resting some veterans at the end of a lost season.

Howell’s midseason hot streak has also come to an end, resulting in a 1.6 percent touchdown rate and a 5.3 percent interception rate over his past six appearances. Facing a daunting Cowboys defense, Howell is stuck in the middle of the QB2 ranks to close out the year.

Running Back

Start: Khalil Herbert, Bears

Herbert has 38 carries for 236 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. He has seen 56 percent of his team’s carries and D’Onta Foreman appears to be out of the picture once again as he was a healthy scratch last week. His opponent, Green Bay, ranks 23rd in EPA per rush attempt allowed and has faced a bottom-10 pass rate over expected this season.

Start: Jordan Mason, 49ers

Christian McCaffrey has already been ruled out for Week 18 because of a calf injury. The 49ers have the No. 1 seed and its bye week locked up, so there’s no need for them to play their starters. Elijah Mitchell has functioned as his backup when healthy, but that’s a massive caveat. Given his lengthy injury history, it looks like he could also sit for the final week, putting Mason in line to see a substantial workload.

Sit: Derrick Henry, Titans

Tyjae Spears has out-snapped Henry in four of their past five games. Unsurprisingly, the Titans are 1-4 over that stretch. Henry averaged 64 yards from scrimmage during that month, down from 82 yards during the first dozen weeks of the year. Touchdowns have saved his fantasy output in recent weeks, but that is a tough bet to make in Week 18. The Titans are five-point underdogs with a 17.5-point implied team total.

Sit: Javonte Williams, Broncos

Speaking of two-down backs who need game script on their side, Williams is a 2.5-point dog on the road this week. He has averaged fewer than nine PPR points per game in losses this year.

Williams’ snap share is down to 44 percent over the past three weeks and his route rate sits at a measly 25 percent. In what is likely another losing effort for Denver, Williams is a fade.

Wide Receiver

Start: Calvin Ridley, Jaguars

Ridley faced the Titans earlier this year and posted his best game of the season. He caught seven balls for 103 yards and two scores. The Titans have bled points to wideouts all year and have been particularly susceptible to boundary receivers. They have allowed the eighth-most points to receivers lined up out wide. Ridley has been split out on 82 percent of his routes this season.

Start: Nico Collins, Texans

Both Robert Woods and Noah Brown are banged up after leaving Week 17 with hip injuries. Brown has already been ruled out while Woods is questionable to play. In that game, Collins logged a 26 percent snap share and a 35 percent air yards share. He also accounted for a third of his team’s end zone targets. Collins will once again serve as the top option for future Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud. That bodes well for Collins as the Texans have a 24.25 implied team total. That trails only three teams.

Sit: Diontae Johnson, Steelers

Johnson’s target share sits at 20 percent in two games with Mason Rudolph at the helm. His air yards share is at 25 percent. He hasn’t topped a 24 percent target share since Week 11. None of those are drastically low numbers, but Johnson is a historically inefficient receiver on a per-target basis. He ranks 47th in yards per target this year. Since targets began being tracked, Johnson is 203rd out of 211 receivers (min. 500 targets) in career yards per target. Unless Johnson is seeing a target share close to 30 percent, he is a clear fade.

Sit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

Smith-Njigba went back to a full-time slot role in Week 17, dropping his target share to six percent, though he saved the day with a touchdown. The Cardinals rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to slot receivers. With most fantasy players pivoting to DFS for Week 18, we should also be focusing on ceiling outcomes to close the season. Smith-Njigba hasn’t topped 16 PPR points in a game this year.

Tight End

Start: Gerald Everett, Chargers

Sans Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett is now his team’s No. 1 receiver. He has a 25 percent target share over the past three weeks and leads the team with 25 targets. Everett is a better play on DraftKings, where his receptions count for more points, than FanDuel.

Start: Dalton Schultz, Texans

Schultz ranks 14th among tight ends in targets and sixth in air yards. He is also tied for second among tight ends in end zone targets. Schultz gets an Indianapolis defense that has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills

Knox missed time in Week 17 with a head injury, paving the way for Kincaid to see a 25 percent target share and 13 PPR points. Even when including games Knox left early, Kincaid has been a non-factor with him active and a stud when he is out.

The bad news is that Knox was cleared to return last week and will suit up on Sunday. Kincaid will sit just outside of my TE1 ranks to close out the year.

Sit: Kyle Pitts, Falcons

Pitts has topped a 15 percent target share once in the past four weeks. Because of how little the Falcons pass, Pitts averaged 4.5 targets per game in that stretch. Atlanta gets a New Orleans defense that has faced the seventh-lowest pass rate over expected this season. The total of this game has already fallen by 1.5 points and the Falcons’ team total is now below 20.