Fantasy Football Week 11 Start 'Em Sit 'Em
Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Note that some players are targeted for DFS. Good luck with your Week 11 lineups!
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Start: Cowboys D/ST
Sit: All Panthers but Adam Thielen
The Cowboys enter double-digit favorites, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per play this season. The Panthers are getting the second-fewest YPP on offense, and Frank Reich has taken back play-calling duties. Bryce Young has gotten just 5.5 YPA with only three touchdown passes over his last four games. He’s also taken 17 sacks over that span despite not facing any top-15 pass defenses. Dallas owns the league’s highest pressure rate and is a top D/ST fantasy start this week.
With Miles Sanders once again splitting snaps with Chuba Hubbard, no Carolina player can be trusted in fantasy lineups in this matchup, outside of Thielen. He’s cooled down significantly lately but could benefit from garbage time like he frequently did earlier this season. Moreover, Thielen ranks seventh in fantasy points per route run and sees his target rate jump from 20.2% up to 31.0% when facing man, a coverage Dallas uses at the league’s third-highest rate.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Start: Jaylen Warren, Jerome Ford
Warren still split snaps and touches with Najee Harris despite being named the starter last week, but he produced season highs in carries and rushing yards for the second straight game anyway. The Browns aren’t a favorable matchup, but Pittsburgh’s running backs should be busy Sunday. Cleveland’s defense completely shuts down wide receivers and tight ends, while new starting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson hurts its offense. Warren has limited upside given the matchup and splitting work, but he’s a fine flex play if needed.
Ford loses a lot of red-zone work to Kareem Hunt, but is the lead back on a run-heavy team with an elite defense. Cleveland’s offensive line is dealing with injuries, but the Browns figure to run heavily Sunday with DTR making just his second career start. The Steelers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs this season, so Ford is a solid start this week.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Start: DJ Moore
Start in DFS: Jahmyr Gibbs ($24)
Moore continued to see targets from Tyson Bagent, but his fantasy value fell off a cliff. He was the No. 4 fantasy receiver over the first five weeks with a healthy Justin Fields, averaging 106.2 yards while scoring five touchdowns. Moore has averaged 52.4 receiving yards with zero TDs since Bagent took over in Week 6. Fields is set to return this week (how much his thumb injury affects his throwing, though, remains in question) in a matchup indoors against a Detroit defense that stuffs the run but is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs. I ranked Moore as a top-12 WR this week.
Gibbs essentially rotated drives with David Montgomery after the latter returned from injury last week, crucially splitting work at the goal line. Montgomery will take work (his snap share only looked lower last week because of his 75-yard TD), but Detroit is run-heavy, and the rookie has highly impressed while earning 25 targets over the last four games. Gibbs’ role as a receiver will be key Sunday against a Bears defense allowing the fewest YPC but by far the most receiving yards per game to running backs. The Lions are more than touchdown home favorites with a huge implied team point total, so plenty of carries should be available. Gibbs won’t be this affordable in DFS much longer.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers
Sit: Quentin Johnston
Start: Jordan Love
Johnston finished as a top-30 fantasy WR and caught the first touchdown of his career last week. But he ranks 90th in YPRR while possibly being the worst route-runner in the league this year. Keenan Allen is set to play through a shoulder injury, and the Packers are far more vulnerable against the run than pass. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Love had his second straight encouraging performance in Pittsburgh last week after a down stretch. The Packers return home Sunday to face a Chargers defense allowing an NFL-high 7.5 YPA and the most fantasy points to quarterbacks when schedule adjusted. Green Bay’s offense is far better with a healthy Aaron Jones, and Los Angeles’ fast pace should result in more plays. Love is a sneaky fantasy start this week.
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans
Start: Kyler Murray, Devin Singletary
Murray didn’t throw a touchdown but was a top-13 fantasy QB anyway during his return from knee surgery. He attempted a healthy six red-zone passes and just missed Marquise Brown on a would-be TD that bounced off his hands in the end zone. He also lost a goal-line score to backup QB Clayton Tune. Murray got 7.8 YPA and impressed with his legs, reaching his fastest top speed in a game since 2021. It certainly appears Murray’s running won’t be affected by the injury.
The Cardinals are an extremely fast-paced offense and suddenly have weapons with Marquise Brown, James Conner, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson (though the rookie WR is expected to miss this week). A healthy Murray in this situation (and outside of Kliff Kingsbury’s system) is immediately a borderline top-five fantasy QB. Houston’s run defense continues to improve, so Murray should be busy Sunday in a matchup with this week’s highest total.
Singletary saw 30 carries last week, when he impressed while running for a career-high 150 yards. He gets another chance to lead Houston’s backfield Sunday with Dameon Pierce to miss another game with an ankle injury. Thanks to C.J. Stroud’s breakout, the Texans have the third-highest implied team total this week in a home matchup against a Cardinals defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Singletary is a solid DFS option at $20 with Pierce out again.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Start in DFS: Chigoziem Okonkwo ($10), Travis Etienne Jr. ($32)
Tennessee’s offense struggled last week, but Okonkwo finished fifth in TE fantasy usage, just ahead of Trey McBride. Treylon Burks is in concussion protocol and has been ruled out, so Okonkwo should see additional opportunities again. Jacksonville has given up the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, making Okonkwo a DFS punt option at the minimum.
Etienne is coming off his worst fantasy game of the season during a 34-3 blowout but should rebound Sunday during a much different game script. He had scored seven touchdowns over his previous four games, and Jacksonville is nearly a TD favorite over Tennessee. The Titans’ run defense remains solid but has taken a step back, and home opponents have averaged 31.7 rush attempts against them this season. Etienne has had a heavy workload this year, but he should be fresh with just nine carries over the last two weeks thanks to a bye and the lopsided 49ers game. Etienne has the second-highest RB snap share over the last month and makes for a strong Week 11 DFS building block.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Start in DFS: Davante Adams ($20)
Start: De’Von Achane
Adams saw 13 targets with the fourth-most air yards last week, but had a modest fantasy game thanks to a tough Jets secondary. New York has allowed by far the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, yielding zero touchdowns to the position since Week 1. Adams appears to be much happier with Aidan O’Connell at QB, when he’s seen a 33% target share during AO’C’s three starts (compared to Jakobi Meyers’ 12.5%). Adams leads all wide receivers in targets inside the red zone (17) and the 10-yard line (nine). He hasn’t reached the end zone since Week 3, but touchdowns are coming. Coach Antonio Pierce wants to run, but the Raiders will be forced to pass frequently while playing catchup Sunday.
Achane is set to return this week after Miami “erred on the side of caution” by putting him on IR. He suffered a sprain (not a tear in his knee) and coach Mike McDaniel didn’t want him playing with a brace. Achane is averaging the most fantasy points among backs this season, and he’s outscored Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley despite playing just three full games.
Achane’s touchdown rate and 12.1 YPC are obviously unsustainable, and he’ll be splitting work with Raheem Mostert, but he looks like a special back in a special situation. The Dolphins are big home favorites coming off a bye with the highest implied team total this week, and the Raiders are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. There’s some risk coming off the injury, but Achane should still be treated as a top-10 RB this week.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Sit: All Giants but Saquon Barkley
Start: Brian Robinson
The Giants have a favorable matchup, but New York is in a dire situation with a devastated offensive line. Tommy DeVito’s offense has an NFL-low 14-point implied team total, so if you’re considering starting any Giants player outside of Barkley this week, Fuhgeddaboudit.
Robinson saw an expanded receiving role last week and should benefit from a positive game script Sunday. The Commanders are nearly 10-point home favorites against a seemingly hopeless Giants offense, and New York is yielding the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Antonio Gibson is doubtful with a toe injury. Robinson would become a top-12 RB should Gibson sit as expected.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Start in DFS: Mike Evans ($27)
Start: Brock Purdy
Evans was the WR5 last week despite dropping an easy touchdown, and he should be busy again Sunday. Opponents have attempted the fourth-most pass attempts per game versus San Francisco this season, and the 49ers have ceded the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Evans should rack up targets with the Buccaneers double-digit underdogs this week.
Purdy bounced back from a couple of down games with a nice performance last week, when he was fantasy’s No. 6 QB despite attempting just 26 passes. He looked healthier following San Francisco’s bye and currently leads the league in YPA, EPA, QBR and Passer Rating. Purdy is getting 10.7 YPA with a 124.9 passer rating at home this season, where the 49ers are big favorites Sunday. San Francisco’s offense is healthy, and Tampa Bay has become an extreme pass-funnel defense. Purdy has excelled against the blitz, which the Buccaneers do at the league’s second-highest rate. Purdy is a borderline top-five QB this week.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Start: Garrett Wilson
Sit: Gabe Davis
Quarterback play will continue to drag down Wilson’s numbers, but he remains a solid fantasy start while averaging 13 targets over the last four games. Buffalo’s secondary is dealing with injuries, and Wilson is due for touchdown regression.
What might have been had Aaron Rodgers stayed healthy.
The inconsistent Davis is facing a Jets defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. He ranks 89th in fantasy points per route run against man, a coverage the Jets use at the league’s eighth-highest rate. Expect a heavy dose of James Cook (and some Latavius Murray mixed in) this week — opponents are averaging the most rush attempts per game but the sixth-fewest pass attempts versus the Jets.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Sit: Geno Smith
Start: Darrell Henderson Jr.
Smith is coming off his best fantasy game of the season but benefitted from a highly favorable matchup (Washington is allowing the most fantasy points to QBs and getting even less pressure after trading away its top two DEs). Smith threw multiple touchdowns during 12 games last season but last week marked just his fourth occasion this year, when he’s taken a noticeable step back. Smith has just three touchdowns over four road games this season and has seen his Passer Rating go from No. 4 against man to No. 31 versus zone, a coverage the Rams use at the league’s sixth-highest rate.
DK Metcalf also sees his target rate fall from 36.1% against man down to 17.4% versus zone, so he can be downgraded this week even as Tyler Lockett battles through a hamstring injury.
Henderson split carries with Royce Freeman but took over the passing-down role before LA’s bye. He gets one more game before Kyren Williams likely returns, and Sunday is a favorable setup. Matthew Stafford will be playing through a thumb injury, and Seattle’s offense could struggle against LA’s zone-heavy defense. The Seahawks have an impressive young secondary capable of shutting down WRs but are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
Start: Joshua Dobbs, Courtland Sutton
Dobbs has been at least a top-seven fantasy QB three straight weeks and has the second-most rushing yards among quarterbacks this season. He won’t get Justin Jefferson back Sunday night, but the Broncos are yielding the third-highest YPA (7.5), the fourth-most TD passes (17) and the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs.
Starting Dobbs or Josh Allen is a legitimate fantasy question this week.
Sutton has the second-most receiving touchdowns this season thanks to the sixth-most red-zone looks. He’s clearly separated from Jerry Jeudy as Denver’s No. 1 WR, and Russell Wilson always looks for him in the scoring area. Sutton has the second-most end-zone targets in the league (Romeo Doubs has the most), seeing 10 to Jeudy’s one. Sutton gets a Vikings defense that’s been completely shutting down the run but allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
Start: DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice
Smith doesn’t have an easy matchup Monday night, but his situation could lead to more targets than usual. L’Jarius Snead will be shadowing A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goedert is out. Smith has seen his target share jump to 30% with Dallas Goedert off the field over the last two years, when he was a top-12 fantasy WR. Fire up Smith on Monday night.
Kansas City consolidated its WR rotation some during the team’s last game before its bye, with Rice leading the group in snap share. The rookie ranks top-20 in target rate and top-15 in yards per route run, so more playing time would be huge. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the slot, where Rice has run 59% of his routes this season. He’s a top-25 WR this week.
