2023 Fantasy Football Rankings: Draft tiers for WRs and salary cap values
We’re headed into the meat of fantasy football draft season, and you need to hear these six words:
Draft wide receivers who start themselves.
Of course you need to season this strategy to taste. My rooms are usually starting three or more wideouts, and that's where I want to bully the room. If your league has smaller starting structures, you'll need to do some personal adjusting. You know your format and opponents better than I do.
Wide receiver is a difficult position to find impactful help on the waiver wire. So often quarterbacks are fantasy breakouts simply because of their running and athleticism, and we know finding fantasy value at running back is usually tied to solving the usage puzzle. Any promoted back will be fought over on the waiver wire and started enthusiastically the following week.
Receiver doesn’t work like that, of course. If the Rams lose Cooper Kupp, there isn’t a Kupp 2.0 waiting to jump forward.
I’m not going to ignore running backs, of course; I might go Anchor RB in some rooms, and even when I’m closer to a Zero RB build, I’ll be attacking that position in the Round 6-12 pocket. But if I haven’t taken two wideouts with my first three picks (or with my three most expensive offers in a salary cap league), something has gone wrong.
[2023 Salary Cap Rankings Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE]
The right answers at wide receiver are almost always drafted.
The Big Tickets
$45 Justin Jefferson
$44 Ja'Marr Chase
$41 Tyreek Hill
$40 Stefon Diggs
$38 CeeDee Lamb
$38 Garrett Wilson
$37 Cooper Kupp
$36 Davante Adams
Jefferson holds the top spot but it’s by the smallest of margins, and I will be sure to have Chase exposure this year, too. Chase is tied to a better quarterback and offense, and he flashed a little more upside than Jefferson when both were at LSU (not that Jefferson didn’t look like an obvious NFL star, too; it’s amazing the Eagles somehow talked themselves into Jalen Reagor over Jefferson).
St. Brown was comically unlucky with near-touchdowns last season, tackled inside the 5-yard line on six occasions. He’s been a red-zone dominator in summer practice, and the Lions will target him off the bus, especially with Jameson Williams opening the year on an NFL suspension.
We can debate what’s left in the Aaron Rodgers tank, but obviously, he’s a major step forward from the Zach Wilson trainwreck. Wilson was a star out of the box last year, despite the problems around him; he has legitimate top-five upside in his sophomore season. Wilson and Rodgers looked tremendous in their only preseason time together.
It’s unsettling to be bearish on Adams, but it’s also difficult to trust Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo, and I fear the Raiders have legitimate collapse risk. Adams is also stepping into his age-31 season, and we know fantasy football at most positions is dominated by younger players.
Legitimate Building Blocks
$35 Jaylen Waddle
$34 A.J. Brown
$30 Tee Higgins
$29 DeVonta Smith
$28 DK Metcalf
$26 Keenan Allen
$25 Christian Watson
$24 Amari Cooper
$24 Calvin Ridley
$24 Chris Olave
$21 Christian Kirk
$21 Drake London
$21 Deebo Samuel
$20 Tyler Lockett
Lockett’s last five WR finishes are lovely: WR11, WR15, WR11, WR11, WR13. And it's glorious, you can draft him much later than that. Eventually rookie hotshot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be another mouth to feed (depending on rehab after wrist surgery), but the Seahawks still have a fairly narrow target tree — they don’t throw to their backs or tight ends much. If you don’t fear a crash from Geno Smith, Lockett is a screaming value at his current ADP.
Ridley is one of the hardest players to rank, off a major layoff and stepping into an offense that already has good players. Look at how badly Deshaun Watson struggled in his return last year. Ridley of course isn’t coming in cold, as he’ll have the full summer to prepare, and Trevor Lawrence is a kingmaker at quarterback. But my Ridley draft strategy is more about taking what the room gives me, and not targeting him from the jump.
It’s crazy to note that Andy Dalton had much better efficiency stats than Derek Carr last year, but the Raiders' dysfunction is baked into Carr’s slump. Olave can win on any route you like, and if healthy he’s at least going to double last year’s touchdown count.
Waddle’s aDOT was comically short for his rookie season, but new coach Mike McDaniel unleashed Waddle downfield last year, with smashing results. It always feels a little odd to draft a WR2 who’s behind a superstar on his own team, but Waddle probably has a 40% chance to outscore Hill in a full season for both, and of course, if Hill ever gets hurt, Waddle becomes a pinball machine.
[2023 Salary Cap Rankings Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE]
The Chargers get a new offensive voice at the right time, but Allen has a history of modest touchdown counts, and he’s also likely to miss a couple of games. Into his age-31 season, I cannot sign up proactively.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$17 Mike Williams
$17 Jahan Dotson
$15 Diontae Johnson
$15 Brandon Aiyuk
$14 Jerry Jeudy*
$14 DeAndre Hopkins
$13 Mike Evans
$12 Chris Godwin
$12 Brandin Cooks
$12 DJ Moore
$12 George Pickens
$11 Terry McLaurin*
$11 Michael Pittman
$11 Marquise Brown
The Steelers ask different things from Johnson and Pickens, but my chip goes on Pickens, the more dynamic receiver, the bigger downfield threat and the younger player. Kenny Pickett was poised throughout his rookie year, and showed some upside in the final quarter of the year.
Aiyuk is a talented player, but probably the fourth-best skill guy on the loaded Niners offense, deferring to Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. And the Niners are always going to have a balanced offense, a mix of being inexperienced at quarterback and very strong on defense. Aiyuk is more a floor pick than an upside pick.
Moore was never a dynamic touchdown guy in Carolina, and as much as I admire Justin Fields, we're probably looking at something like 20-22 touchdown passes. If I could sign up for Moore to replicate last year's seven spikes, I'd take it immediately.
I've chased Pittman as an upside pick for two years, but the 2023 ceiling can't be too high as the Colts groom Anthony Richardson for the NFL. In a full season, Pittman is probably looking at something like 84-913-5; welcome on your roster, but not worth an arm-wrestling match.
I had Jeudy priced at $25 and McLaurin priced at $11 before their respective injuries. And I keep raising the Dotson ticket, in part because he matched McLaurin over the final five weeks of last year.
Some Plausible Upside
$10 Odell Beckham Jr.
$9 Romeo Doubs
$8 Skyy Moore
$7 Gabe Davis
$7 Elijah Moore
$6 Nico Collins
$6 Jaxon Smith-Njigba*
$5 Allen Lazard
$4 Zay Jones
$4 Tyler Boyd
$4 Jameson Williams*
Somehow Patrick Mahomes posted an MVP season last year without any Kansas City wideout earning weekly fantasy cred. That probably won’t happen again but it’s hard to say which KC target we should focus on. Toney’s obviously hurt, while Moore and Rice are inexperienced. I could see Richie James sneaking into the conversation as a useful PPR support player, but he doesn’t have a major ceiling.
Thomas is a case for the Cheese Theory — once the cheese goes bad, don’t bet on it going good. He attacked the record book with an eraser back in 2019, but he’s been a fantasy brick since. He’s now stepping into his age-30 season, Drew Brees is obviously long gone and Thomas was never much of a separator to begin with. I doubt he’ll be on any of my rosters.
With Williams facing a suspension, I’m not going to make a wait-for-it pick. Roster space is far too important, especially in September, when the most important free-agent moves are available. I don’t want to play short-handed. And it’s not like Williams is an instant fantasy plug-and-play the moment he rejoins the Lions.
Collins steps into his third season and could become the target leader in Houston. And although you don't want to expect miracles from CJ Stroud right away, it would be difficult to play worse than the 2022 Houston quarterback room did. Collins is the type of growth pick you want on your bench.
Bargain Bin
$3 K.J. Osborn
$3 Adam Thielen
$3 John Metchie
$3 Robert Woods
$3 Rashee Rice
$3 Zay Flowers
$2 Alec Pierce
$2 DeVante Parker
$2 DJ Chark
$2 Marquez Valdes-Scantling
$2 Richie James
$2 Hunter Renfrow
$1 Mack Hollins
$1 Mecole Hardman
$1 Jalin Hyatt
$1 Wan'Dale Robinson*
$1 Greg Dortch
$1 Marvin Jones
