Fantasy Football Panic Meter, Playoff Edition: The Bijan Robinson crisis that Arthur Smith created

The key to winning in fantasy football in 2023 was obviously to have drafted some combination of Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert and/or Tyreek Hill.

Those three have been the golden-ticket players this season. But the key to experiencing true happiness and fulfillment in your fantasy life was actually much simpler: all you needed to do was avoid the Arthur Smith Theater of Pain.

Atlanta's offense has been an agonizing ride all season, culminating in a vomitous Week 15 performance, a shameful loss to the Panthers — a game in which neither team reached 10 points or 300 total yards. Fallout from the defeat includes yet another benching of quarterback Desmond Ridder and something less than a vote of confidence in Coach Smith from team owner Arthur Blank.

For Falcons fans and fantasy managers, one of the most infuriating recurring issues with Smith is the modest utilization of his most talented offensive weapons. This has been a multi-year complaint, in fact. The franchise repeatedly spends early first-round draft picks on skill players, then quickly turns them into decoys and part-timers.

Here's how Atlanta used its last three first-rounders in Sunday's loss:

• Kyle Pitts, fourth overall pick in 2021 - 4 targets, 3 receptions, 37 yards

• Drake London, eighth overall pick in 2022 - 3 targets, 2 receptions, 24 yards

• Bijan Robinson, eighth overall pick in 2023 - 8 touches, 14 total yards

Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith led the team in yardage (61), Tyler Allgeier led in touches (15) and Cordarrelle Patterson scored the only touchdown. Robinson lost a fumble — only his third of the season and first in over a month — and was sent immediately into exile.

All around, just a complete fantasy (and reality) disaster.

So it was no surprise that when Panic Meter submissions hit this week, we were flooded with Falcons. One name in particular dominated your panic:

Yes it is, naturally. Dozens of people gave us versions of the same reply. It was overwhelming. Bijan anxiety has never been more extreme than it is right now as we enter the fantasy semis in most leagues. It's truly a nightmare. Robinson played only 58% of the snaps against Carolina, his lowest share of the season, excluding the headache fiasco back in October.

Atlanta is now heading into what should be a spectacular matchup for Robinson against Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns this season (20) and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. Under normal circumstances — if the Falcons simply had a normal head coach — we would all regard Robinson as a must-play in fantasy this week, a potential league-winner. Instead, we are awaiting any faint glimmer of hope regarding Bijan's usage from a coach who cannot be trusted to behave logically.

Again: nightmare.

Allgeier certainly isn't going away — he's seen double-digit touches in nine different games this season — but he should be able to coexist just fine alongside Robinson in a run-heavy environment. We only need assurances from someone (preferably a person in a decision-making capacity) that Bijan's fumble-related punishment won't continue indefinitely.

Just in case you were under the impression that Robinson has been underperforming, let's take a look at his production relative to Allgeier through 14 games:

• Robinson - 176 carries, 801 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 24 runs of 10+ yards, 41 REC, 7 TDs

• Allgeier - 166 carries, 577 rush yards, 3.5 YPC, 11 runs of 10+ yards, 13 REC, 3 TDs

I'm certainly not going to argue that Allgeier should be kicked to the curb, because he was a revelation last season. He's a reliable runner who gets every yard that's blocked, then often bangs for a few more. He and Robinson complement each other well. Allgeier has also never put the ball on the ground as a pro, which is no small thing. He should play, no question.

But this guy right here definitely needs to play, because he has been exactly as advertised (and often better):

As of this writing, the Yahoo Fantasy team is unfortunately split on Robinson's trustworthiness ahead of a can't-lose week. One of us is all-in, fearlessly ranking him RB6 while the others slotted him at RB14 and RB16 — hedgy ranks intended to reflect both his upside and the possibility of the disaster scenario that played out last Sunday. This is where rankings really fail, because they are a terrible tool for expressing our sentiment on players who seemingly have wide ranges of potential outcomes.

Robinson is involved in the messiest roster decision that I'm personally facing this week, which happens to be in a highly incentivized league with a bunch of odd settings. (Big-play bonuses, various other scoring quirks, nearly every starting spot is a flex.) One of these four running backs will need to sit for my team in the semis:

Over the past 72 hours, I've rotated that group several times in a terrible game of fantasy musical chairs, benching everyone at some point. Robinson should probably be the one obvious starter on this squad, but, as most of you know, it's just not that easy. Coach Smith has made this decision much more difficult than it needs to be.

At present, I am leaning toward keeping Robinson active, because my tendency is to always think ceiling when setting playoff lineups. But I am also prepared to be hurt.

If we are in fact entering the final weeks of Arthur Smith's reign, he could very well choose to go out with an avalanche of touches for Allgeier, Jonnu, Patterson and other less notable Falcons. I think we'd all have a certain grudging respect for that move, honestly, because at least he'd be fully embracing his own worst instincts.

Bottom line: Smith has nearly broken me. He has fully broken the Panic Meter. If any of us actually manages to win a title with Atlanta players on our rosters, I am of the opinion that we should be awarded immediate Diamond status and all associated privileges. We will have traveled a tougher road and suffered so much more than other league champs.