Fantasy Football Live - Week 14 full show
Yahoo Sports' Jason Fitz, Andy Behrens and Matt Harmon get you prepared for the final stretch of the fantasy regular season - including a preview of Eagles vs. Cowboys, their surprise MVPs for 2023 and help prepare for a December to remember.
Video Transcript
JASON FITZ: Welcome to week 14. I got the Christmas sweater memo. I've got went full Grinch, but there will be no grinches today. Only joy, joy, joy, joy, down in our heart as we are one week closer to the college football-- college football movie. My God, you can tell him my brain's been to the Fantasy Football playoff. That's right around the corner. Andy Behrens, Matt Hartman. I'm Jason Fitz.
There will be no committees to decide on tiebreakers. Although, in one of my leagues, it's got a little heated. The tiebreakers are getting down to like who beat who and who scored the most points. This is a heated time of year, Andy Behrens. It's like, I don't know how to keep friendships.
ANDY BEHRENS: You didn't have that settled before the season started, like you're debating now how you're going to decide who gets the final playoff spot. That's a wild. Who is the commissioner of this league? Tell me you're not the commissioner of this league.
JASON FITZ: No, no God. No, this is the second week in a row. I feel like I've thrown this league under the bus. It's a new-- a bunch of people that were relatively new and a couple of us that have played and everybody wanted to get into it. And the commissioner's a first time commissioner. And he made things really complicated. Sorry, if he's watching. Love you, buddy. But he made things really complicated.
And I think in the beginning, everybody was like, yeah, sure. And now they're actually finding out what these rules are. And it's gotten a little contentious. That's all that. We needed somebody, you know, as smart as Matt to come out and save us, buddy. Like, you told me last week, I should just get out of a league that didn't do things like that had a restriction on running backs. I'm just saying, it might be the same league. So, you know, lessons learned.
MATT HARMON: Yeah. I'll abstain and just not be a part of any sort of commissioner debates. You know, Fitz, you brought up your sweatshirt here, the Christmas stuff. I want to note tonight, I am wearing a Crose t-shirt here. It's from King Family Vineyard after your vicious attack on wine, last week.
I had to show support for one of the many great wineries here in Virginia in the Charlottesville area up in the Monticello trail. So shout out King's Family Vineyard. And, you know, Fitz, this is, again, this is about you and your disrespect of wine and the entire industry, last week.
ANDY BEHRENS: If you would have let me know, I definitely would have worn a Diet Sprite t-shirt or sweatshirt tonight, so.
MATT HARMON: Oh, yeah. Then we could have mixed, I mean, because that's what normal human adults do.
ANDY BEHRENS: Classic Fitz combo, yep.
JASON FITZ: I don't want to brag or anything, but I've got this Diet Cranberry Ginger Ale tonight. Oh, it is--
MATT HARMON: And no brag, yeah.
JASON FITZ: I mean, like it's expensive. It's got, you know, Diet Cranberry Ginger Ale. Like, y'all need to come to my, like, obviously, who's got the highfalutin taste around here? I think it's the guy with the Diet Cranberry Ginger Ale, not the guy that's out there supporting local vineyards. By the way, if you get any free wine from that, you better be sending it along. None of these players are game changers.
Now let's take a look at our Fantasy Game Changers that will actually dynamically impact this week for this week, powered by Ram Trucks. You know the drill. We'll give you a word we associate with Ram Trucks and then a player that we associate with that word. Andy Behrens, you are up. Your word-- fast.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, this is Keaton Mitchell for me. He is a lot of things. And one of them is fast, like scary fast, 4.3 fast. And you see that speed on every touch. He's already scored a pair of touchdowns in pretty limited usage this season. He's got a receiving role. But here's the thing that excites you if you added Mitchell, and it kind of terrifies you if you had Gus Edwards on a roster.
In week 12, before that teams bye, Mitchell outsnapped and outgained everyone in Baltimore's backfield. He played 33 snaps to Gus's 19. He gained 89 yards compared to Gus's 37. It's still a committee for the Ravens. But Mitchell now looks like he might be actually the head of that committee.
He's not going to-- he's not going to have an easy matchup this week against the Rams, but it's beatable. It's a middle-of-the-pack run defense. They allow 4.2 yards per carry. If Mitchell is getting 10 or more touches a game, if he's seeing double digit touches rest of season, he's going to be an automatic start for me.
JASON FITZ: I love that. I'll give you-- my word is trustworthy. And this is not some hot take who I'm going to pick, but there's a reason for it. Trustworthy is Tyreek Hill versus the Titans. Now, part of this is just Tyreek, right? Like, this is part of it. But also this MVP conversation that we're trying to have, if there's ever been a year in my mind that a non-quarterback could win it, it is Tyreek this year for the numbers he's put up.
" then look at the Titans defense, which is absolutely terrible. Tyreek is going to be able to carve up this secondary. The secondary, particularly for the Titans, is not good enough. And I think where we are right now is everybody understands the history that's here and available for him as a player, which means when there are advantageous matchups, I think the Dolphins are going to try to take advantage of it and put up big video game-like numbers.
I could see Tyreek going for 175 in this game easy, simply because, A, he can. B, the Titans won't be able to stop him. And C, Mike McDaniel knows that they're going to have to inflate those numbers if they want that guy to have a shot at the MVP. We'll have another MVP conversation from somebody that plays the game coming up. But that's why I think Tyreek is trustworthy for me. Matt, the word for you is premium.
MATT HARMON: Oh, man, premium. Andy, I'm about to talk about a Bears player here, DJ Moore.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, yeah, you're.
MATT HARMON: I mean, he's had some premium production of late. Six games, the last six games with Justin Fields, he owns a 31% target share. He's cleared 700 yards. And he's got six touchdowns to his name. And I'll admit it that coming into this year, I was kind of like, OK, DJ Moore, obviously, he's a very good number 1 receiver. But is he tapped out at like a very good number 1 receiver? Can he take the-- like the jump, the leap to great number 1 receiver?
And if you look at it, man, like, he is having a career year with the Chicago Bears. 83.6 yards per game, career best. 75.3% catch rate, career best. 10.8 yards per target, career best. I think he is separating against man coverage at a better rate than he has at any point in his career. And that was already a strength coming into this year. And now, boys, he gets to play the Lions.
The Lions pass defense is not good. So bad, in fact, that they are 32nd since week eight in success rate allowed on dropbacks. So yeah, I think they were going to get a pretty premium performance out of DJ Moore this week.
JASON FITZ: I love all this Bears praise. Look at that. Let's just "Kumbaya." We're all feeling Christmassy now. All right, no matter what you're looking for in a light duty truck, the 2023 RAM 1500's got you covered. Score yours at ram.com. Now you guys know you can get in on the conversation #AskFFL. Let's help you make some picks.
We're going to take a look at some tough flex decisions with multiple players submitted by you, great people, to us. And we will start with question number 1. It comes from Mark, who says, "Start 2-- JJetta, Ridley, Cooks, Reed? Am I crazy for thinking Reed/Cooks are most reliable options?" I will throw this to Andy because Andy always likes it when the questions are qualified. It's his favorite. So go ahead.
ANDY BEHRENS: [LAUGHS] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like I hate these situations where I have to like talk the guy away from doing the thing that he clearly wants to do. You're a little bit crazy for thinking that Brandin Cooks and Jayden Reed are the most reliable options in a question that involves Justin Jefferson. I get it, hasn't played in a while. He has been a full participant in practice though.
There's just no way that I'm sitting Jefferson here. And like when we talk about Brandin Cooks, it's not like reliability that we're really leaning into there. It's, you know, the matchup is super friendly against Philadelphia, obviously. And he's an explosive player. But we're not talking about somebody who's likely to see 10, 12 targets. So Jefferson, for me, is easy.
And I'm actually going to go Jayden Reed as the other. I think in a-- especially in a situation where Christian Watson probably won't play, might not play, Reed is the most bankable option in that receiving corner.
JASON FITZ: I'm going to be at that game in Vegas against the Vikings. If Justin Jefferson goes off it's, going to be tough for me to stay sober for my Sunday night show. I'm just saying. All right, let's bring the next question up. And it comes from Rundubrun, says-- I really read that just as wide as could be-- "#AskFFL need to sit 2, 0.5ppr-- Achane, Mostert, Mixon, or Kyren." What do you got for us, Matt?
MATT HARMON: Oh, man. Andy's favorite question's type was the last one. This is my least favorite one. It's like, hey, look at all these great options I have. Why don't you tell me which is the two best? I mean, I don't know, man. And especially, because you've got both Dolphins running backs. I mean, that is just like setting yourself up to be upset. I'm sorry. I'm not trying to be mean here, questioner. But like, come on, what are we doing here? Why do you want to torture yourself like this?
With all that said, the easy option here is Kyren Williams. I know it's a tough matchup. I know the Ravens defense is very good. But he has just such a bankable workload. I mean, how can you go away from him? And I know that Joe Mixon is coming off this great Monday Night performance.
But I really want to tell you to take one of these Dolphins back. And I really don't know which one to pick, but think because of how he was used in the first half, I'll go Raheem Mostert here for your second option.
JASON FITZ: All right, let's get the next question coming in as we continue to help you guys out. Remember #AskFFL to get in on the conversation. Spo Bros Know says, happy pr-- Flowers, London, Diontae, Keaton Mitchell. Pick two. What do you got for us, Andy?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, this is tight. They're all kind of in the same range for me, flex-wise. Just talked up Keaton Mitchell. And I like-- I legitimately believed it. So I'm going to go with Keaton Mitchell. I think he's fantastic. Again, I think he's probably in line for a dozen touches, maybe more than that. One of the most explosive players in the league we've seen this year. So give me Mitchell.
And this comes down to your tolerance for this Thursday Night game, because like, I want to say Diontae Johnson. Again, his numbers with Mitch have been really, really good. They've been better than with Pickett for whatever that's worth. I think he's a great player. I would personally go Diontae here. If you just want to skip this game entirely, though, and pivot to Zay Flowers, that's also fine with me.
JASON FITZ: All right let's get another one in here. And this one comes from Brandon, who gives us our next question. A little bit of a qualifier here, but not bad. Brandon says, I have Barkley, Etienne, Kyren, and Breece. Which two would you start, and then are either of them-- either of the other option better flex options than Keenan Allen? I'm starting Jefferson and ARSB. #MakeYourPick #AskFFL. Harmon, what do you think?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, I actually think that all three of those running backs are great options. And, you know, they're all bankable workloads. Like, we talked about Kyren Williams. He's going to be out there a ton. Travis Etienne, same thing. Some of the effectiveness hasn't totally been there of late, but I still think great role on an offense that we trust. I'll say this.
If Trevor Lawrence plays, I'm playing Etienne at the flex over Keenan Allen. If Trevor Lawrence does not play, then I'm going to chase some of that volume there with Keenan Allen. But Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams, I think, are pretty firmly must starts here in week 14.
JASON FITZ: Keep the questions coming in. We will help you with more roster decisions as the show goes on. In the meantime, I can sit here all day and tell you that I think Tyreek Hill is the MVP of the NFL this year. But I'm 5' 9.25" and 165 pounds. What the hell do I know? I do know that Austin Ekeler has plenty to say about this-- hey, thank you very much-- and knows plenty. Check out this portion [COUGHS] of Ekeler's Edge from this week.
AUSTIN EKELER: It's so tough just because if you look at just the impact of position, absolutely the receiver position can make a big impact as long as well as the running back position can make an impact. However, the quarterback position is like kind of make or break. It's just such an impactful position. Maybe it hasn't been like MVP level of the last quarterbacks that we've seen. I still think it's really hard to just beat out that position.
If you look at, you know, Tyreek Hill, like Tua has got to be able to throw him the ball. You know, I'm not sure if Tua wasn't in there, are they still making those types of plays, you know? And so that's the question where it's like, is Tua the enabler of Tyreek Hill for him to have a season like that? And so, man, it's tough. It really is tough to really justify another position. I think it would be sick.
Is there an option-- is there a chance? Yeah, I think there is. But it's going to have to be something like outstanding. Like, this is like never been done before. I feel like to really beat that out, which there are some-- there are potential with Christian and Tyreek Hill, or Tyreek, you know, is on pace to, you know, set a new all time receiving record, which I definitely think would definitely be MVP worthy. But like I said, it's going to be tough to beat the quarterbacks.
JASON FITZ: It's time to sauce it up with five new flavors of wings from Popeyes. And you, the viewers, each week, we get your bold predict-- your bold fantasy takes on the week's hottest topics through social media. This week, we asked you guys a very simple question. Who do you think will surprise and be the top fantasy scorer this week? Let's see some of the submissions that came in. And the first one, Andy, we'll get your reaction to the very first one that came. From Nick, as he gives us, man, Jameis Winston living his best life thoughts.
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh, well, I mean this is the right answer. It's honestly, it's too bad that we started with Jameis because this is the right answer. He nailed it. Congrats. You've taken all the suspense out of this segment. No, it's in fact, probably not going to be Jameis Winston. Heck, we don't even know if he's going to start, right? Like, we're having another one of these weeks where Derek Carr comes out of Sunday with like nine different injuries.
And then, by the time the weekend rolls around, Derek says he's fine, and maybe he's going to be out of the concussion protocol. So we don't even know that Jameis is going to go. Of course, Jameis's range of outcomes in any given week is QB1 all the way down to like QB 30, right? I don't think this is going to happen. It would be fun if he gave us a game though. I won't rule out the possibility that we get like a three turnover game from Jameis in which he also scores 20 fantasy points. That's kind of his specialty.
JASON FITZ: Yeah, I just want to be his buddy. Like, he seems like he enjoys life so much. Let's get the next submission in. This one coming from Fantasy Football Pill, who says, Alvin Kamara against the Panthers. Fantasy MVP of week 14! What say you, Matt Harmon?
MATT HARMON: Well, Panthers run defense has been about the worst in the NFL. So you're on track there. Alvin Kamara has one of the best rolls. For any running back in the NFL, he is a workhorse. He's always out there, you know, the weeks where Taysom Hill and Khalen Saunders are-- Khalen Saunders aren't out there, dominating the red zone work.
So I mean, look, we saw last week. He can be the top scoring running back in any given week. I kind of wonder, though, if the last prediction comes true, and Jameis Winston obviously starts and becomes the highest scoring player of the week, is it possible for Alvin Kamara to have an MVP performance? Because Jameis Winston, he's not going to be checking the ball down to Alvin Kamara in the flats.
You know, he's not going to be like, oh, one second, one second. I gotta check down. I gotta check down. He's actually going to be pushing that ball downfield. So I don't know if those two things can coexist. But yeah, Kamara has a great role and a great matchup here in week 14.
JASON FITZ: Now I just want to sit next to the bar, like at the bar next to both of them, and watch them, watch the same game with very different wants in the way that that goes. All right, let's get the next one. The next one coming in from Ashtag saying, which by the way, Ashtag, quality name, Zeke about to erupt, OK, tonight against Pittsburgh and literally no one on the planet going to see this one coming. Erupt feels a little aggressive, but Andy Behrens, what do you think?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, erupt feels like a pretty strong verb for this player and this game. I think we kind of have to assume no touchdown for Zeke because the Patriots are lately not one of those touchdown scoring teams. It's just an organizational philosophy. I'm not judging it.
Zeke is probably going to need, I don't know, 350 yards in a standard league, maybe 275 in a PPR league in order to like erupt and finish at the top of the scoring leaderboard. Again, in a game with a total like this, a 30-point over/under, I know, I don't see it, denied.
JASON FITZ: I love the confidence in the eruption prediction. Let's get another one in here from Penniac Giant, who gives us another person I'd love to be friends with. Gardner Minshew. Matt, what do you think?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, this one's going to be a no for me as well. Look, Gardner Minshew, [LAUGHS] it's kind of funny. There's like a narrative with Gardner. It's like, oh, he's really keeping the train on the track for the Colts. I mean, you guys are not watching these games. Gardner is trying to throw the game away at least twice, sometimes three times per game, which is fine.
He's Gardner Minshew. He likes to literally let his hair down and then play kind of fast and loose, which is great. But it's not like conducive to necessarily being the top scoring fantasy quarterback, especially because they're not really trying to have him push the ball down the field much. We saw it last week with Alec Pierce. Alec Pierce finally has an eruption game against a very generous pass defense of the Tennessee Titans.
And this is a gettable matchup here this week as well. But we've really mostly seen like, OK, Gardner. Michael Pittman is going to be open on crossing routes. You can do a little RPO stuff. Not that any respects the-- nobody respects the R in that RPO. We're mostly just thinking you're going to pass the ball except you belcher a couple goal line touchdowns now and again.
But we mostly just want you to hit Michael Pittman on crossing routes over the middle of the field and that's it. I think that can be good. I think that can be a viable quarterback streamer. It can be viable for the Indianapolis Colts. I do not think it's going to make him the top scoring quarterback or some kind of fantasy MVP this week.
JASON FITZ: I want Harmon to give us a new nickname for the RPO, where the R is never really part of it. It's just like Rrrr PO! All right, let's get one more in here coming from Truck Harlem. Truck says, Mahomes will finally go off, because he's due. I didn't know that was logic that led to great success. But OK, Andy, what do you think? Mahomes do?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, well, he certainly do. I'll give you that. I don't know that being due actually carries any weight. I hope it does. This is something that I need in a couple of different spots. This is also entirely plausible, right? Like finally, we're talking about like an actual great player here. This can happen. He-- like, Mahomes, he's got like 120 point week in his last five, which is a problem. He's only got a couple games this season in which he has three or more touchdown passes.
But he does also have like a 39-point fantasy performance on his resume this season. That's something. If he can veer away from some of the receivers on his own team that seem to be actively attempting to sabotage him, that would certainly help out. It's not like Buffalo isn't vulnerable. We've seen them give up some big weeks. So this may seem bold given the actual year to date production for Mahomes, but this is totally in play.
JASON FITZ: If being due is a way that gets you success, I just wonder after 20 years of watching my favorite team suck, how I can get a little bit of that good mojo. All right, remember to sauce up your game day with Popeyes Wings, now available in five new flavors including Signature Hot and Honey Barbecue. Make it a combo. Cool things off with an ice cold Coca-Cola. Available now for pickup and delivery at popeyes.com and, of course, through the Popeyes app.
All right, gentlemen. It is that time of the show. It is that time of the show where we do our primetime picks. And usually it's that time of the show where, you know, things get a little saucy for all of us. Like, it gets there's some trash talking things get a little weird. I won last week. And I'm not just going to-- but I'm going to admit this.
I can't believe I won because, last week, it was decided by less than a point in overtime. Somehow, some way, I topped Matt Harmon. Matt, any words before we start the contest this week? Anything you'd like to say? Like, maybe, congrats, Fitz, or-- yeah.
MATT HARMON: No.
ANDY BEHRENS: [LAUGHS]
JASON FITZ: OK.
ANDY BEHRENS: No.
JASON FITZ: All right. That's good. All right, that was good, right?
MATT HARMON: Let's get this over with. Get this over with. [LAUGHS]
JASON FITZ: We have two Monday Night games this week. Titans and Dolphins, Packers and Giants. And then obviously, we have tonight, we have Eagles and Cowboys. So the way this works is we are only going to pick from the Primetime games. You guys know this. So by drafting order, that means Andy is going to go first, which has really become like, we should name this seat the Andy Behrens spot because I'm not sure Andy's even playing the damn game anymore. But Andy, all right, let's see where we are here? You have the first pick. Shock the world and tell us who you're going to take.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I got to tell you. My favorite moment every week of the NFL season is the second this segment ends. I have-- man, I don't know. I got nothing here. I'll just play spoiler. I'll take the best player on the board. I'll take Tyreek Hill. Fitz, you promised me. Earlier in the show, you promised me, you guaranteed 175 receiving yards.
I'm going to take you up on that. We can pencil it in right now. I will accept it. The man is on pace for 132 receptions, 2,100 receiving yards, and 17 touchdowns this year. That is quite good. And he's got a great matchup. I want him.
JASON FITZ: You're going to win this week because I think he gets 175 and three touchdowns. All right, Matt Harmon, that means you're up. What do you got?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, I mean, I thought there was no way that Tyreek Hill wasn't going to smash the Titans, but now I see the path. Andy takes him first overall in this contest and puts an incredible hex on him. Listen, the process, the process, the process, people. I was so close to winning last week, and it was basically on the back of this man's performance from Thursday Night.
I'm going to take him again here on Sunday Night Football, CeeDee Lamb. Come on down. We're doing this again. This guy is an absolute superstar. He is crushing it right now. Let's just bring it home this week, pal. Not that it was your fault, but let's bring it home.
JASON FITZ: Look, that's a great pick. And I think I come in third here. And I just say, hey, I'm not going to overcomplicate any of this. AJ Brown comes in, because I feel like every time we talk about some of these primetime games, there's certain guys know you can bank on. And at this point, AJ Brown is obviously one of those. So I'll take AJ Brown with my first of my two straight picks because we're doing a snake draft here. That one's easy. And then I got to figure out where to go next.
I'm going to hope that Tyreek Hill falls at the 1-yard line repeatedly, somehow, some way. And as a result, they have to hand off, right? And when they hand off, they give it to Raheem Mostert in that situation. I'm going to bank that a 10, and Tyreek Hill get him down inside the 5 and then Mostert has to clean up all the work. And maybe, you know, it feels like a little bit of a 50/50 on the running backs. I'll take Mostert go with that, which puts Matt back up on the clock. Matt, what you got for us?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, listen. Saquon Barkley coming out. A big game prior to the bye. Tommy DeVito been kind of quietly cooking lately. I'll go with Saquon here against a Green Bay Packers run defense. Like, I'm basically running back my exact same strategy from last week where it's like, take CeeDee Lamb, take the running back that was playing the Packers. This guy is probably even a little bit better than Isiah Pacheco. So look, look, I was close last week. I'm just going to bring it home this time.
JASON FITZ: Yeah, you're right. I mean, it really came down to one catch in overtime. Andy, you have two straight picks to try and right these wrongs and win a matchup for once. What do you got?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, you know, I feel like I've taken Tony Pollard probably, I don't six or seven times this year. They're always in primetime. And, you know, it's working for me. Clearly, it's working for me really well. So I'm going to run that back, do that again. He's, yeah, at least, he has 80 scrimmage yards and three straight. He's got a touchdown in three straight. That's something. He's not the reason I've been losing.
And then my next pick, I'm going to go-- oh, man. I hope that one guy isn't right. And Zeke actually erupts tonight, because then I'll feel bad, because I'm going to go with this game. But I'm going to take Jaylen Warren. We got Najee Harris banged up. He's got a knee issue. Warren enters this game averaging almost 6 yards per carry, plus he has 38 catches on the season. I know I'm getting points here. If there's a touchdown in this game, I think Warren's the favorite to score it.
JASON FITZ: Harmon, what are you laughing at? Harmon's laughing. What do you got, buddy?
MATT HARMON: I love how Andy spoiler pulled the curtain back here. In the group text, Andy's like, let's just-- there's two Monday Night games. Let's go ahead and avoid Thursday Night Football. And then he is subjecting himself to a Thursday Night Football player. Buddy, what are we doing here?
ANDY BEHRENS: I know. I know. I know. I had the right-- I had the right idea. I just didn't have the discipline. I didn't have the discipline to stick with it.
MATT HARMON: You're--
JASON FITZ: I think--
MATT HARMON: --sick freak. You're a sick freak, but I love you for it.
JASON FITZ: Our, you know-- Kyle Brandt for years has put out angry runs. We need to out this-- off this segment, put out a shirt that just says, I'm sorry. And it's Barron's picks every week. And it just sent him to the players like, sorry, man. We screwed you that week. All right, Matt, you're up next. What do you got?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, I don't think any of the players are returning our call on that one. I'm hoping that De'Von Achane returns some big value here. Look, I respect what Raheem Mostert has done, but I mean, come on. Achane was running wild in the second half against the Commanders. Was a lot of it garbage time? Yeah, yeah, but I'm hoping for that was this the sign of future things to come here. I mean, the guy is absolutely electric. Let's bring it on home here with De'Von Achane.
JASON FITZ: That leaves me to pick last. And this one's very simple. I have lived this entire contest of which I am in first place so far by one important rule, when you can be a troll, be a troll. And this is my opportunity to troll both of you because every single week, I got to hear about Jayden damn Reed. So you know what?
I'm going to pick Jayden Reed so that somebody you all talk about can be the very reason that I take you all down. This is so simple to me. I got one shot here to win and then be able to be like, hmm, your boy did it in because you all could have picked after all the Jayden Reed talk. Y'all could have picked him. You didn't. So we'll see how that goes. I feel-- I feel pretty good about it, gentlemen.
This contest-- oh, this this contest has just been a delight this season. It's absolutely perfect. We'll keep you updated on how we do. Just a reminder to the world, I have a multigame lead at this point. Each week, Sal Vetri offers up some unique fantasy advice here on this show. Let's check back in now with Sal for his seven key findings in week 14.
SAL VETRI: Here are the seven key findings that'll help you win your week 14 fantasy matchup. Finding number 1 is the pickup and play of the week. And this is for Bears running back, Roschon Johnson, who's coming off of the bye week. But let's not forget what he did right before the bye. Because in week 12 against the Vikings, he saw season-high usage, 76% of the snaps and 15 opportunities.
And the important point to call out is Khalil Herbert was active for this game. And it wasn't a blowout. Roschon just took over the backfield. And Roschon remained efficient, averaging 5 yards per touch in that contest. And now on the year, he is top 20 in fantasy points per opportunity. He's still available in 79% of leagues. Even though he has a tough matchup this week, you need to add.
Finding number 2 is the best spot of the week. And this is for Packers running back, AJ Dillon, who will take on the Giants in week 14. Now, this assumes Aaron Jones remains out because Jones hasn't practiced the last two weeks and has missed both of those games.
And Dillon is coming off of his most impressive game of the year, 87 yards against a tough Chiefs defense. And look, this is the time of year that he finds his most success because the colder the weather gets, the better for the 250-pounds Dillon. He'll take on a Giants defense that allows the third-most yards and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Start Dillon.
Finding number 3 is the sketchy spot of the week. And this is for DeAndre Swift, who is coming off of his worst performance as the Philadelphia Eagles starter this season. He saw just eight touches and saw his snaps decrease to 42% as Kenneth Gainwell was more involved. And you can't blame the blowout. Because even on the final drive of the game, Jalen Hurts and the Philly starters were still out there. Swift now has to take on a Dallas Cowboys top 10 run defense that earlier this season he just averaged 2.4 yards per attempt against. If you have a better option, consider starting them over Swift.
Finding number 4 is a player who is trending up. And this is Zack Moss, who, last week, we said we believe in this guy as a league winner the rest of the season. Now, he didn't put up a league-winning box score in week 13. But he saw elite usage. 100% of the Colts' backfield carries led to 21 total touches. So he's trending up due to this elite usage and the news that Jonathan Taylor will likely miss three to five more weeks, meaning Moss might be your starter throughout the entire fantasy playoffs.
Finding number 5 is a player who is trending down. And this is for Devin Singletary, who had one of the best rolls in football from week 9 to week 11 with Dameon Pierce out. During this time, Singletary saw 23.7 opportunities per game. That was top three amongst all backs. And he continued to see over 80% of the snaps in week 12, even with Dameon Pierce back.
But in week 13, the usage started to trend down. He saw just 44% of the snaps and 40 scoreless yards. And now Dameon Pierce is more involved in the upcoming schedule is brutal. The Texans will face the Jets, Browns, and Titans twice, which is a bottom-five schedule for fantasy running backs the rest of the year.
Finding number 6 is something to monitor. And this is the Browns receiver, Elijah Moore, with Joe Flacco. Moore played seven games with Flacco in two seasons when they were on the Jets, and here's what happened. He averaged 12 fantasy points on 7 targets per game, 62% more production than he had with any other Jets QB.
And in week 13 with Flacco, the connection continued as Moore saw a season-high 12 targets in over 80 receiving yards. Expect this great usage to continue in week 14, assuming Flacco continues to start and Amari Cooper might miss as he left last week with a concussion.
Finding number 7 is a strong QB streamer. And this will be whoever starts for the Saints between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Because in week 13, Derek Carr left with multiple injuries-- a head, back, and shoulder injury-- and his status moving forward is doubtful. Whoever ends up starting for the Saints will have a top 10 schedule the rest of the season against the Panthers, Giants, Rams, and Bucs.
There's a real shot the streaming quarterback for the Saints is a top 10 option the remainder of the year. So these are the key findings that will help you win your week 14 fantasy matchup. All you have to do now is take this information and put it to use to "schmack" around your competition.
JASON FITZ: All right, let's bring Sal in with the guys and have a December to remember. God, that just feels so good when you say it that way, just a December to remember. We're going to pick a player at each position with the best playoff schedule that could deliver a league-winning performance. Andy Behrens, we will start with you. Who's on your mind?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, let's look at quarterback. Obviously, Brock Purdy, among the favorites right at this moment, he's coming off a signature game. We know that. Currently leads the league in completion percentage, TD rate, yards per attempt, yards per completion, pretty much everything related to efficiency. He's also the guy who gets to throw to Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, CMC, which is a pretty favorable situation.
In weeks 15 through 17, he gets Arizona, then it's Baltimore. OK, that's rough. And then it's Washington. So to be clear, the Ravens, obviously a problem. That division has been kryptonite for Purdy so far this year. But Arizona allows the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Washington, the second most. And Washington, remember, is a team that deliberately got worse on defense at the deadline.
They've given up three or more TD passes in five different games. They've given up 30 TD passes so far on the season. Purdy has a very clear chance to be the overall QB1 in Championship Week when you need him most.
JASON FITZ: And Matt Harmon, what's on your mind for somebody that can help us get through these playoffs?
MATT HARMON: Oh, man, maybe this is just like, I wish this was what had happened all season, but I kind of think the Seahawks wide receivers are going to finish the year really strong here. Number 1, we saw it on Thursday Night Football. Like, that is what this group is capable of. They are capable of taking over a game. They're capable of putting a cornerback like DaRon Bland into the blender.
You know, this is a really talented group, OK? Like, DK Metcalf is a baller. Tyler Lockett is still a very good receiver. And Jason can be a dynamic rookie. We're starting to finally see him cook a little bit in one-on-one isolation, man coverage situations, like this group can ball out. And you look at the schedule, yeah, they have to get through the 49ers again. Although I don't think they're going to get taken to the woodshed quite as hard as they did last time. They played the 49ers on Thanksgiving. Did you get the Eagles?
That's a golden matchup the Titans. Fitz has been dunking on the Titans with the Tyreek Hill stuff, all show. And then the Steelers. Yeah, Joey Porter Jr. who I talked about earlier is really good. But all of their other corners, not so good. So maybe two of the three go off in that game. It just looks like a really nice soft landing spot for a group that hasn't quite hit expectations so far this year.
JASON FITZ: Andy, you get a bonus shot here. Is there somebody else on your mind that you think could help everybody win?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I'll just throw out a tight end. And I'll first say that actually Travis Kelce and TJ Hockenson have two of the most favorable schedules at this position down the stretch. But you don't need an expert to tell you to start those guys. That's why you drafted them. So you didn't have to think about this miserable position for the rest of the season.
But I do want to talk about Jake Ferguson. He's not exactly a set it and forget it guy for fantasy purposes. Although he is heavily rostered, he has touchdowns in four of his last six, at least 5 targets in four of his last five. He also just gave us 77 yards and a touchdown against Seattle. He's about to get just a miserable Philadelphia pass defense. They've been super generous all year, and it's Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit.
This is one of the friendliest stretches for the tight end positions down the stretch. It's particularly great, when we get to week 17, when we hand out trophies, he's got Detroit. And they allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. So the good times should probably keep rolling for Ferguson.
JASON FITZ: Andy, I just got asked, did you have to text Sam LaPorta first to be like, hey, I'm going to talk about another tight end. Was that like, did we get permission to this? I feel like you're cheating on them.
ANDY BEHRENS: Listen, listen, I mean, he's one of those guys at this point. You know what? It was a bit insulting that I didn't include him with Hockenson and Kelce. I should have-- we've righted that wrong now. I should have. He's in that club. He's a guy you never have to think about ever again.
JASON FITZ: You guys are both seeing other people. It's fine. I'm not here to ask questions. All right, let's get some playcalling going here. We're going to get in some help and help you guys with some decisions you're trying to make. You've submitted them, #AskFFL. Let's pull the first question up. And it comes from Marty. Marty asks Elijah Moore or Chuba Hubbard-- Chuba Hubbard, I always do that-- in half PPR? All right, so let's go to Sal here. What do you got on this one?
SAL VETRI: Yeah, so this one, I'll say this, you have some good decisions here, believe it or not in terms of usage recently. As much as I want to go to Elijah Moore with what looks like Joe Flacco again and no Amari Cooper, I'm actually going to lean with Chuba Hubbard here because he's coming off of a week, 25 touches is great. If we get that again, yeah, every time I take this. But 75% of the snaps, and more importantly in that game last week, Miles Sanders twice missed some pass protection.
And it seems like it got him benched. He's already not seeing a lot of usage because Bryce Young doesn't have time to begin with. And now if your running backs aren't protecting for you, that's not great. Looks like this is Chuba Hubbard's backfield completely at least for another week and probably the rest of the year. So I'll lean on him for 15 plus touches.
JASON FITZ: All right, let's get the next question coming in from Miguel. Miguel asks, Fantasy playoffs, PPR, flex spot-- Breece Hall, Jake Ferguson, Keaton Mitchell. Matt Harmon, what do you think?
MATT HARMON: Oh, man, it's crazy that Breece Hall is like the least appealing name on this list. I really want the right answer to be Keaton Mitchell here. You know, he sort of looked like he had taken a step ahead of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill coming into-- right before the bye week. But coming out of the bye week, I'm a little concerned. We get a slight rug pull here. And maybe Gus Edwards jumps ahead of Keaton Mitchell. I think that's very possible.
Andy talked about it. Jake Ferguson looks great right now. I love the way that, again, he's another one of these players that CeeDee Lamb has unlocked. Like, his usage in the attention that he's grabbing has really opened things up for a guy like Jake Ferguson on these underneath routes. I think the right answer here is Jake Ferguson. Even though it does seem crazy sometimes to start the tight end in the flex spot, I think he's a unique case where you can do it.
JASON FITZ: Also, let's give a little shout out to the Cowboys coaching staff that seems to be finding ways to get everybody open. It's a delight to watch. Andy Behrens, you get the next question. Question number 3, coming from Jack asking, can't believe I'm asking this-- Jaylen Warren or Ekeler? Thanks. Anybody, you think?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I can't believe I'm super tempted to say Jaylen Warren actually. Again, we've got a-- we've got a banged up Najee Harris tonight. Not-- like he's going to play. And he's had beefy workloads and all that. Like, we like Najee just fine. But again, banged up, got the knee issue. Warren among the most explosive players so far in this season. And Austin Ekeler is not one of the most explosive players so far on the season.
That is a problem. He does have a stellar matchup, if it doesn't get much better than Denver. I'm actually going to go Warren here though. I think he don't necessarily leap. I was going to want to say that he leapfrogs Najee rest of season, but I think he probably does in this game. It's not a great spot for him. But just explosiveness-wise, workload-wise, I think I trust him a little bit more.
JASON FITZ: All right, let's get to the next one coming from Bill. Bill asks, Pickens, Downs, or London, 1/2 PPR. Thanks! Sal, what do you think?
SAL VETRI: All right, Bill. You're probably not going to believe me on this one because a good chance you started last week, Drake London, and he got you a one catch for 8 yards. But that wasn't the matchup. It's a Jets matchup. They don't want to throw the ball. He only threw 22 times Ridder when you take away his throwaways and his balls in the dirt. But if you look at this week's matchup, Tampa Bay, a much better matchup, second-most points and yards allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Ridder, this year, has actually been good in similar matchups. And all year, he's been efficient, still averaging 7 targets per game in a low volume offense. I'll lean to Ridder, who this same Bucs defense, last week, gave up 10 targets in a decent game to Jonathan Mingo. You're going to get Drake London is a much better option.
JASON FITZ: All right, so Harmon you get the last one. We pull up one more, as we continue to get you guys help, #AskFFL. DeVonta or Aiyuk, PPR? Harmon?
MATT HARMON: Ooh, man, a couple of great route runners here. I will go with Brandon Aiyuk though. You know, number 1, I think it's a slightly better spot for him, but also, man, like I really do kind of buy into the splits. Sometimes this stuff can be random. Sometimes it's not as instructive as we think. But the splits are pretty strong between DeVonta Smith when Dallas Goedert plays versus when he doesn't. When he's out there, DeVonta Smith tends to see a slight downtick.
And AJ Brown actually, you know, the offense coordinator said recently, he's been getting more double teams and now that Dallas Goedert has not been playing. With Goedert back in there, I think Brown goes off. I think Goedert, you know, has a nice little role himself. I think DeVonta Smith is in danger of getting left out in the cold. So I will go Brandon Aiyuk here, who just always has such a rock solid floor, especially with the way he's running routes this year.
JASON FITZ: All right, let's take a look at the injury report coming out of practices today. Some big names that we're monitoring, keeping an eye on, not the least of which Amari Cooper with the concussion was not at practice today, at least as far as they could see. Kenneth Walker continues to miss time with an oblique injury. He's missed two straight games, limited in practice today, I should say. Zach Charbonnet, also limited.
Breece Hall hasn't practiced this week with the ankle. And then this one's significant. Isiah Pacheco didn't practice today with a shoulder injury. And Andy, we talked earlier about the difficulties the Chiefs are having. Pacheco has been one of the spots here that has been at least trying to be reliable for this offense. The loss would seem significant, right?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, one of the only things that is just consistently working for the Chiefs, right? Plus he had that moment just a week ago when you thought for a second that maybe his season was over and it was a knee injury, ankle injury, whatever, and he shrugged it off and came back the next series. Now we learn that he came out of the game with a shoulder issue. Hopefully, it's not too serious.
I mean, the Friday practice report will tell us everything. And hopefully, if it is moderately serious, we only have to-- we only have to exist with Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon for one week. And then we can get right back to the fun with Pacheco because his schedule down the stretch is fantastic.
JASON FITZ: After all, we learned earlier that, you know, Patrick Mahomes is due. So that's just the way things work. All right, so I love to get you guys spun up. I'd love to have a little bit of fun with you guys. And just say, enough already. This is a chance for you guys to step on a soapbox. Not that either of you need it, you're gloriously tall. And then you can get some of the things off your chest that you were tired of hearing from a fantasy narrative standpoint. Andy, start with you. Give me something you are tired of.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, enough with the Jordan Love discourse existing only at the extremes, OK? Every time a broadcast shows him, he's like the third guy on a graphic with Inner Circle Hall of Famers, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Or at mid-season, all of the talk about Jordan Love was, oh, man, maybe Green Bay needs to draft another quarterback.
First of all, I can assure you that the Bears, Lions, and Vikings fans in your life do not need to hear any more of this "Jordan Love might be the next Aaron Rodgers" stuff. I'm all good there. I've heard enough of that to this point. But also, like what if, like-- I'm just spitballing. What if Jordan Love is simply a very talented and ascending 25-year-old quarterback with some arm talent, and he's made some terrific plays lately?
And he hasn't really paid a price when he doesn't make terrific plays. And he's just he's just ascending, and he's good. We don't have to put him necessarily up to the standard of like young Aaron Rodgers. That's a little bit of an overreach.
JASON FITZ: I mean, before we move on, Harmon, we all see the look. Did you have anything you wanted to add to this?
MATT HARMON: This mega quote from Andy just wish casting. Please, yeah, please, please, I don't want to hear any more about this. You could have just said the part where the Bears fans. You don't even have to include the Lions of Vikings in this. The Bears fans in your life, meaning that Bears fan right over there doesn't want to hear any more about this.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, we're all good on this topic, thanks.
[LAUGHTER]
JASON FITZ: It doesn't make for great sports talk conversation, but like I do think there's room for like, hey, that quarterback's pretty good. Like, it wouldn't make for a great segment, but it's like, hey, maybe he's just pretty OK, fine. Matt, it is your turn. Let's see what we think of what you've got. What are you ready to say, enough already to?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, look, if you spent any time on football Twitter today, you know why I'm like a little hesitant to say, hey, man, the Bills coaching staff did a really good thing recently. Shout out to Ty Dunne, wrote a great piece over at Go Long. I'm not going to elaborate anymore on that topic, but you all can go check it out for yourself. However, all that aside, I do think that Sean McDermott made a really good decision firing Joe-- excuse me, firing Ken Dorsey recently.
Like, enough already with all these nerds out there showing you, hey, the success rate was actually really good, the EPA per play was really good under Ken Dorsey. You know, it's been better since Joe Brady took over, scored points. Scoring damn points is actually more important to winning games than EPA and success rate as much as I love that stuff, as much as I love to get down in the spreadsheets.
I mean, come on. The reality is you could watch that Bills offense and turnovers, and, like, kind of, you know, it was Josh Allen fully engaged. You knew something was wrong. Sometimes you got to look beyond the spreadsheet and really think about maybe there's something in the building that's going wrong here. And I think we've seen, with Joe Brady taking over, there's more motion in the offense.
Khalil Shakir is getting more involved. He leads the team in receiving yards in the two games that Joe Burrow took-- or excuse me, Joe Brady took over. In those same two games, like, James Cook has gone 100-plus yards from scrimmage. Like, enough already with the Ken Dorsey era. Ken Dorsey didn't do a good enough job. I think Joe Brady is doing a pretty solid job here to end the season.
JASON FITZ: And speaks to some of what Brady did really well at the college level, too, as a passing game coordinator. I love that take by you. All right, Andy Behrens, what do you got? We'll give you another one. Just get it off your chest.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, enough with the Kansas City Chiefs, still, at this late date in the season, messing around with receivers who are not Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice. Kelce has the highest target share on this team. But it's just, like, it's like a tick over 20%. Generally speaking, the best NFL offense, as certainly this is true this year, they funnel targets to their best players.
Let me give you some fun numbers on passer rating when targeted for the Chiefs. Kelce, he's at 112.1. Rashee Rice is at 123.8. That is elite production, superhuman production in Rice's case. And then there's this. Justin Watson, when targeted, 76. MDS, 77. Kadarius Toney, 79.7. He also single-handedly lost them a game. Skyy Moore is at 52.1.
It can be argued that a target to Skyy Moore is literally the worst play in the NFL this year. We got to stop this. Kansas City, like, you know at this point what works and what doesn't. I am begging you to feed the good options in your offense and just put the other guys on the shelf.
JASON FITZ: I now know that the only thing I'm going to ask Santa Claus for on Christmas, given the fact that my beloved Raiders play the Chiefs that day, is for a bunch of passes to Skyy Moore. All right, a guy can dream. That's all we can do. It's time to turn to the fantasy community this week. We love to do this. Jennifer Eakins at 4for4 is back with us. We talked about some players who have optimal fantasy playoff schedules a little earlier. But she's back with Matt to talk strategy and some players to avoid. Take it away, guys.
MATT HARMON: All right, yes, it is crunch time. Listen, this is the moment, Jen, when people need us to really come through for them. So let's talk roster construction here for the fantasy playoffs. Obviously, I think the layup advice, and I know that default to this lay up all the time is, listen, it's playoff time, time to stash those backup running backs. So Jen, give me a couple good backup running backs that people can stash here to try to boost the upside of their roster.
JENNIFER EAKINS: Absolutely. First guy I have is D'Ernest Johnson with the Jaguars. He's had at least 24% of the snaps in three straight games, and he's outtouched Tank Bigsby 22 to 10 in that time frame. Etienne is dealing with a rib injury. You got Christian Kirk's hurt. Trevor Lawrence is hurt. They might lean on that back feet a little more in the coming weeks. And he's only 11% rostered in Yahoo leagues.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I think he is so under the radar just in terms of like that immediate path to upside there. If anything happened to the starter, knock on wood, with Travis Etienne, is there another back you might want to highlight that maybe has that same path to upside?
JENNIFER EAKINS: I do, and that is Rico Dowdle of the Cowboys. He's basically one injury away from fantasy gold. He's involved in both the pass and the rush game this year. He's had 32 touches in the last four games. And also, honestly, the Cowboys are really hot right now. They may want to rest Pollard for the real NFL playoffs. He's only 10% rostered right now in Yahoo leagues.
MATT HARMON: Yeah, I love that call. I think Rico's looked really good whenever he has gotten the ball there for Dallas. So let's move to a different part of this roster construction here. Let's talk defenses. You know, we were going back and forth prior to the show, you know, because, like I said, I'm the bozo that just takes the low-hanging fruit.
But you are actually really want to talk about defenses here. You're like, the big topic here, Jen, is, you know, when it comes to the defenses, do you dance with the one who brought you, or do you try to stream here? What's your personal strategy?
JENNIFER EAKINS: My personal strategy is to dance with the defense that got you there. I think a lot of people want to play matchups in the playoffs. And I get it for positional situations. But when you're dealing with a defense, like sometimes a bad defense is a bad defense. Even if they're playing a team that's really bad as well, they still have bad players on their team that aren't performing.
So for example, someone like the Ravens this season, they're arguably the number one defense. They have not a great schedule, but they still have a lot of talent on that team. So if it were me, I would stick with the Ravens. I will say, though, I do have someone that I brought to the table. If you want to stream, I feel like Houston is a good option. They're the 13th defense over the last four weeks.
They have a pretty-- they have a beautiful matchup this week against the Jets. Then they have Tennessee, Cleveland, and Tennessee again. So if you're looking to stream, I think Houston's a good option. But I feel like if you have a top-tier defense, stick with them through the playoffs. They got you where you are. Stay with them.
MATT HARMON: I like that. I also like the idea of the Texans getting two dates with Will Levis here to finish the season. We talk a lot about the offensive side of the ball here. Of course, it's a fantasy show, but DeMeco Ryans has those boys cooking down there in Houston. So that's a good streaming call if you do want to stream. But look, Jen, what goes up must come down.
You know, if we're going to add these players, we got to drop a few of them here. Give us a couple of drop candidates that might, you know, be roster-cloggers at this point if you need to add some of this exciting upside with running backs or you need to stream a defense.
JENNIFER EAKINS: Absolutely. I brought two for you guys. First one is Josh Downs. And I like Josh Downs, the player. I like him as much as everybody [CHUCKLES] else. He's had some really good moments this season, but he is trending in the opposite direction. He hasn't posted more than 43 yards in four games. He hasn't found the end zone in week-- since week 7.
He's got a pretty rough schedule as well for the playoffs. He goes Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Vegas. They're all top-half against the wide receivers in fantasy points allowed. So I feel like he's a guy that's not going to crack into your roster unless you have a major injury. So just get rid of him.
MATT HARMON: Ah, look, that one hurts. That one hurts, I will admit. But the reality is, Jen, you're right. Like, this is a Gardner Minshew-led offense. How much, you know, juice is there really enough to squeeze out of here when Michael Pittman is dominating targets? All right, you said you brought two to the table. Who else you got that's a potential drop candidate?
JENNIFER EAKINS: Second guy I have, a little spicy, is Drake London. I get it. People drafted him high. I totally get it. But he's wide receiver 47 right now in half PPR points per game. He's averaging just 8.5. They are a run-heavy offense. Atlanta is 26th in pass attempts this season. He got the Arthur Smith factor, right? He's too much of a wild card to count on for these playoffs when it's win or go home. So, Drake London, sorry, but you got to go.
MATT HARMON: Ah, man, Drake London, a great player. But is he really the type of player that's going to help you win your league? Probably not. And maybe not for some of those backup running backs. But the chance does exist. Well, hey, it's always a good chance we're going to have a great conversation whenever Jen Eakins stops by the show. Make sure you check out all of her work at 4for4 and here at Yahoo as well. Appreciate your time. Thanks so much.
JENNIFER EAKINS: Thank you. Have a good one.
JASON FITZ: All right, let's have a little bit of fun now. It's time for Fantasy Faceoff, Andy Behrens. It's this or that. And we're going to do this as Ezekiel Elliott. And then we're going to have to figure out, Zeke, or-- and we'll start with Zeke tonight, or AJ Dillon.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, once again, the essential problem for Zeke is that he plays for a team that has scored 13 combined points in its last three games. So this is not some high ceiling play here. Can't really argue with AJ Dillon's matchup this week. He gets the Giants. They've given up the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league. They allow almost 5 yards per carry.
I think his problem is that Aaron Jones actually showed back up at practice today. And now we have some concern that, you know, if Jones plays, obviously it's probably 50/50. They may put Jones on a snap count, but Jones can really mess this up for Dillon because Dillon isn't so efficient that he can give away carries and still retain value. So this is a situation where I would just go ahead and play Zeke tonight.
JASON FITZ: How about Zeke versus Gus Edwards?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I'm, you know-- and I'd be probably took this away from me talking about Keaton Mitchell earlier. I'm terrified of Gus Edwards right now. He was so good for that five-game stretch in which he scored nine touchdowns. He could reappear at the goal line for us. But again, he's coming off a game in which he played 19 snaps. He saw nine touches.
Again, it could bounce back. That would be great. But I'm not banking on it. I know the only thing that I can really guarantee with Zeke tonight is if he stays healthy throughout this game, he's getting 25 touches in this thing. So I'm going to play him.
JASON FITZ: All right, what about Zeke versus Alexander Madison?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, this is probably a spot where I'm going to play Madison. And he's getting, as you know, a somewhat generous Raiders run defense. Then I wouldn't call it a premium matchup necessarily. But it's certainly a matchup in which he can do a little bit of damage. I expect the Vikings run game to be unlocked a little bit with the return of Justin Jefferson, simply because he's a player who just has so much gravity. Really tilts the field. So I think it's a pretty good spot for Madison. I would go there. I think he has a much better shot at finding the end zone.
JASON FITZ: All right, let's bring Matt Harmon back into the fun. And let's have a little bit of num num num. A little fun around a fantasy feast, because we have the Eagles taking on the Cowboys. I don't know why. I just did that. There's a little-- even I sometimes face myself with my stupidity, but
[LAUGHTER]
Num, num, num.
[LAUGHTER]
I went like somewhere between cookie monster and a meme. OK, let's give something we're feasting on for this Eagles-Cowboys game. Matt Harmon, you're up first. Save me from myself. What do you got?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, please God, pass the baton here. Fitz, look, this is yet another great critical important NFC game, which is going to be, like I said, important to the playoffs, MVP odds, all that stuff. But, you know, we're really here to talk about-- here to talk about wide receiver play. Just like last week, it was a great spot with the Eagles and the 49ers. It is a fantastic spot here with the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
And I'm curious who's going to have the bigger game between AJ Brown versus CeeDee Lamb. Let's start with the AJ Brown part of it. Like I mentioned earlier, when Dallas Goedert plays, like AJ Brown actually does tend to concentrate the targets more. And it makes sense. Also, in this game, the Dallas Cowboys play single-high coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, according to fantasy points data.
And AJ Brown, when you single him up, when you just play man coverage like that with little safety help over the top, he's going to absolutely work you over. And he's been, you know, for AJ Brown standards, kind of quiet the last three games. Again, you know, when Dallas Goedert has been out, I think he is going to come out and absolutely go to work on the Dallas Cowboys this week.
But then you think about CeeDee Lamb, like how can you shy away from him? He leads the NFL in receiving yards since week 9. It's really hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn't absolutely smash the Dallas Cowboys. And like, I love what the Cowboys are doing. You're so right. Earlier in the show, Fitz to say that Mike McCarthy is really figured this offense out. They've moved CeeDee Lamb around a ton. They've gotten him in different spots except when they play the Eagles.
When they play the Eagles, it's like, let's just get back in the slot CeeDee and let's absolutely tear up these linebackers, the safeties, the nickel corners where there have been a ton of injuries. We obviously saw the 49ers go to work on that unit this past week. I think CeeDee Lamb, if I'm picking between the two, I think he actually ends up having the bigger game. But man, I can see these guys combining for like 250 yards and three touchdowns in this game.
JASON FITZ: So I love what you're saying, and it speaks to something that I've got my eye on with this. And it's really the weakness of the Eagles, because it was exposed last week. The weakness of the Eagles defense is absolutely their back seven. And when you start thinking about what's going to happen here, the question is, how can the Eagles fix what the 49ers just exposed? And I think the answer is, they can't. Is it possible that Slay isn't the player he was?
You mentioned Lamb, but this isn't just about him. It's about the entirety of the Dallas passing attack that think we've been talking about a lot throughout the course of the show, rightfully so. They're able to design and get guys open all over the field, and what did we just see? When a good offensive coordinator with great weapons can turn around and design guys open all over the field, the 49ers put point after point after point.
This is a challenge. I'm not sure the Eagles are well equipped for from a matchup standpoint. So I think Philly's defense has a weakness here that's going to be taken on. Weakness versus strength, I think Dallas rolls in this game because I don't trust the back seven of Philadelphia's defense at all in this matchup. Andy, what are you looking for here?
ANDY BEHRENS: First of all, I'll tack on a point to your analysis there, Fitz, and that is one of the craziest stats I think in fantasy this season, is that Philadelphia's defense has given up either the overall QB1 or QB2 in six different weeks this season. Like, they've played 12 games. That's crazy. They've been super generous. I think, at least the thing that I'm watching in this game, probably because took him in primetime picks, is that I think we can end the calls for Tony Pollard to just retire and be replaced by Rico Dowdle or anyone else.
Pollard has reached the end zone in three straight. He's seen at least 16 touches in each of those weeks. Basically, ever since Harmon and I declared that we were done discussing him on the Yahoo Fantasy podcast, he's been an RB1. So you're welcome for that. Philadelphia has the league's fourth ranked run D in terms of yards per game. But I think they're kind of fraudulent. If you start looking at them in terms of efficiency, they've been pretty generous.
Also, like last three games, obviously McCaffrey goes off against everybody but James Cook got to him, Isiah Pacheco got to him. They've all had really useful fantasy games against Philly. So don't consider this a stay-away spot for Pollard. He definitely has a higher percentage of interior runs this season. It's a lot more of that Zeke workload versus getting him outside and letting him try to break big plays.
So maybe the big plays haven't been there, but the volume has. And I think you can trust him at least in this matchup against a very vulnerable Eagles defense.
JASON FITZ: I really like what you just said, by the way, about the growth of this. And I'd never thought of this until you mentioned it, but we just presumed that Kellen Moore gone and McCarthy and as a play caller, would mean a seamless offensive change. Like, maybe it takes a little time for everybody to click with the new play caller and with the new offense. I mean, no, it's the same offense, but it's not, right?
So maybe a little tip of the cap to the Cowboys to just sort of get in rhythm here. It'll be proven on this weekend one way or the other. All right, it is time for some hurry-up offense. You know the drill. We put your questions up from #AskFFL. We put 25 seconds on the clock, and somehow I try and make it more complicated than it needs to be. Let's get the clock going. Courtland Sutton or Garrett Wilson, is what SAGEBoomer asks. And I'm not sure what SAGEBoomer really means here. But Harmon, you made a face. So I'll throw it to you. What do you think?
MATT HARMON: Oh, God. Garrett Wilson, I mean, I guess I know you can't go back to Garrett Wilson, not like this. I guess the answer is Courtland Sutton. Chargers' pass defense is bad. He's the only thing that's good about that offense.
[WHISTLES]
JASON FITZ: Oh, way to get it in before the wire, which sets us up perfectly for A.M.N, who asks, obviously, Andy Behrens, which Chicago Bears running back has the best upside? Tell us, Andy.
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh, man. I feel like everybody wants me to say Roschon Johnson. I feel like I get this question a lot. He's the rookie. He's like the new thing. And he had 75 yards in his last game. And it was fun. He can catch the ball. He can do a little bit of everything. Khalil Herbert is really good, and he has started most games.
[WHISTLES]
And if he gets rolling, that's your guy.
JASON FITZ: That would be a delay of game, 5-yard penalty. Jayce asks, Justin Jefferson, if back, Amari Cooper or Zach Charbonnet? All right, what do you think, Harmon? And why is it not--
MATT HARMON: Justin Jefferson. Move on to the next one.
JASON FITZ: Amar-- like give me, like Justin Jefferson is taking on the juggernaut of known as the Raiders defense, Harmon. Like, let's have a little respect.
MATT HARMON: Are you already drunk? Are you are you already been drinking? I mean, what is going on here?
ANDY BEHRENS: All cranberry.
JASON FITZ: No, this is why. OK, Matthew. Let's get the next question up. Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary or Nuk Hopkins in my flex spot in week 14? Also, I can't believe. I just called him Nuk. I don't care what the nickname is. All right, Andy Behrens, what do you got?
ANDY BEHRENS: [LAUGHS] Yeah, it's close with Hopkins. But I'm going to go-- I'm going to go Jaylen Warren here. And I feel like I've been picking Jaylen Warren, basically, all show. Obviously, a really good player, explosive, almost 6 yards per carry. Najee, banged up. Warren, again, best shot at a score.
[WHISTLES]
JASON FITZ: Wow, with time left to spare, golly, we're just running efficiently here. All right, Jeffrey Ryan, who seems to have a joyous picture, just sitting back enjoying what seems, like maybe it was a dinner, maybe it was a meal. I don't know, he asks Matt, Pacheco or Russell Wilson at superflex spot with question mark at the end.
MATT HARMON: Jeffrey, I really respect you for being the type of person who's not just like, Oh, it's superflex, gotta start the quarterback. If Pacheco is active, I'm going Pacheco over Russ.
[WHISTLES]
JASON FITZ: I'm-- all right. I didn't give you enough time for more explanation. That's on me. O.B says, Herbert or Gainwell? And Pickens or Downs? Oh, two questions for you, Andy Behrens. What do you think?
ANDY BEHRENS: How do I get two questions in the hurry-up? And my other question was, well, never mind. I'm going to go Khalil Herbert here over Gainwell. That's a given. DeAndre stuff is going to play, so you got to go Herbert. And then I'm going to go Josh Downs. Even though Jen Eakins doesn't like it, I think, he's a great play.
JASON FITZ: Still got it in. And by the way, like when we're running the two-minute drill, don't argue with the refs. Just hand him the ball. Let's keep the thing going. Let's go. I mean, god, what do we? All right, Rico asking PPR flex need one, Puka, Diontae Johnson, or Elijah Moore?
MATT HARMON: Puka.
JASON FITZ: OK, there we go. That was, do you want to tell anybody why? I mean, like you listen.
MATT HARMON: I love Elijah Moore. I wish the answer was Elijah Moore. And I think he could still have a big game with Joe Flacco. I really respect Joe Flacco for, yeah, winning a Super Bowl. But mostly throwing the ball to Elijah Moore, honestly, that's great stuff. But Puka is the right answer here. He's the figure of the Rams offense.
[WHISTLES]
JASON FITZ: Look at that. Even I forced him into Moore and he gave it to us. Ehm, I don't know if that's the way we're going to pronounce it. But we're going to Ehm, with a 0.5 PPR-- it's really E-H-M-- Zay Flowers, LaPorta, Noah Brown, or DK? #AskFFL. Andy Behrens, you finally get the chance to make up with LaPorta. What do you think?
ANDY BEHRENS: How dare you? How dare you give me this question? Obviously, I can't bench DK Metcalf. He's coming off a million touchdown game. He's going to score again. He's great. Got to play him. But then you're going to put LaPorta in your tight end slot. What are we doing here? How many tight ends are better than him? He got to play LaPorta as well.
JASON FITZ: I'm just saying. If I'm writing the headline, it's going to be trouble in paradise. Andy doesn't love LaPorta anymore. All right, Adam says, in a PPR, have Chris Olave, a Bijan Robinson, and De'Von Achane. Need one flex. What do you think, Harmon?
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh, my gosh.
MATT HARMON: I know, oh, my gosh, is right, Andy. Like I wish I had one of these teams. I do not--
ANDY BEHRENS: Honestly.
MATT HARMON: I think, with the amount of work Bijan Robinson has gotten of late, you've got to go with him. The Falcons lead the NFL. No shock and rush attempts since they came back from their bye.
[WHISTLES]
JASON FITZ: Oh, and still gets it. That's-- Harmon's a total pro. All right, Brett. Andy, you get this one. Justin Jefferson, we know that's obviously not the answer. Keenan Allen or Amon Ra St. Brown? #AskFFL can play two of the three who's out? Yes, it's a small league.
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh, man. Again, options I wish I had. Yeah, you're playing Justin Jefferson. Don't care that he's been out of the lineup for a long time. He's as good as it gets. And I'm playing Amon Ra St. Brown. I don't know how you can sit him against the Bears. It feels awkward to leave Keenan Allen on the sideline--
[WHISTLES]
--but I got to do it here.
JASON FITZ: What I know is that now when Brett goes back to his league, he should be like, it's a small league after-- I don't know if we can even think that. That probably costs a lot of people a lot of money. I'm sorry. I screwed it all up. What I haven't screwed up is our primetime picks. By the way, just to remind everybody. I'm still in first place. That does it for this edition of Fantasy Football Live.
Check back in Sunday morning for the latest on player injuries. And our own Scott Pianowski will be answering your last minute lineup questions on social media at #AskFFL. You can also hit me up on me because I'm in first place on this thing. So I just, just a reminder that it's a first placer. Is there a prize? Do I get a championship belt? OK, Harmon, any? OK.
MATT HARMON: You get to come back to the show next season. You get to come back to the show next season. We'll allow it. Only if you win, though. Don't blow this.
JASON FITZ: OK, if don't win, I'm unemployed. There we go. There's no pressure at all. Like, the stakes just got raised. Hey, a big thanks to producer Ron Schultz. He's done mountains of work behind the scenes. We could not do this show without the great work he's done every single week. And I really want to say thanks to him for making me feel so welcome from the first day that I've done this show. Absolutely incredible from him. He's been with us for four seasons.
Great work all around from Ron. All right, good luck in week 14. We will see you next week. And God, if you thought I was bad, I could clinch if I win again this week, right? Like next week, I could just come in with the championship robe. Woo! We got to get like Ric Flair on or something. I don't know Y'all have a great week. Thank you so much.