Fantasy Football: Kenneth Walker III looking like a draft fade despite rookie success
By Matt Jones, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Kenneth Walker III burst onto the scene last year as a standout rookie for the Seattle Seahawks. Selected with the 41st pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Walker quickly made his mark. He started 11 games and rushed for over 1,000 yards, earning him a spot on the All-Rookie team. With his impressive performance, he narrowly missed out on the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, which went to Garrett Wilson.
With such an exceptional rookie season under his belt, one would assume that the Seahawks are fully committed to Walker. They did draft running back depth but based on their actions and statements, it appears that they remain committed. Despite the unpredictable nature of the NFL and the Seahawks in particular, Walker's position as a key player in the team's backfield seems secure.
Will that security translate into a valuable fantasy season for the second-year back?
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Walker’s Rookie Profile
There have only been 16 rookie running backs to hit the following thresholds since 2012:
200 rush attempts
1,000 rushing yards
Of that cohort, Walker was one of only three running backs to fail to break 200 half-PPR points. Most of that is due to a lack of production through the passing game. Walker saw 35 targets but turned them into just 165 yards. We’re in the "he's doing everything all over the field" portion of the offseason. While those stories are promising, it’s important to remember that they’re just that — stories.
Looking at the aforementioned group of 16 running backs who started their careers with over 1,000 rushing yards, only three were able to improve their fantasy output in their sophomore season. Eddie Lacy (2013), Josh Jacobs (2019) and Jonathan Taylor (2020) all managed to exceed their impressive rookie marks. However, that's where the list ends. With a hit rate of just 21.4% (3 out of 14), the odds are not particularly favorable.
Of course, Walker and Tyler Allgeier have yet to play their second seasons, so they could potentially add to the success stories. However, based on historical trends, it's clear that repeating or improving upon a standout rookie season is no easy feat for running backs.
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Seattle Seahawks 2023 Offseason: New Additions and Implications
The Seahawks drafted WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and added two running backs to their squad in Rounds 2 and 7. In addition to those three selections, they used two more picks on offensive linemen. Their second-round choice of Zach Charbonnet should throw a bit of water on the “maybe Walker can contribute in the passing game” fire. Last season in college, Charbonnet tallied three or more receptions in eight of 10 games.
Analyzing Walker’s ADP
Since drafts opened at Yahoo earlier in June, Walker’s ADP is 28.7. That puts him in the high-end RB2 conversation at RB14 but our projections disagree slightly. We currently have him slotted in as RB19. With a similar volume profile that leaves Walker as a touchdown-dependent two-down back.
If Seattle’s offense clicks and Smith-Njigba can move the needle along with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the passing game, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities. Geno Smith went through his renaissance and this team would obviously benefit if that were to continue. The question is, can all of those “ifs” actually come to fruition?
Conclusions: Weighing the Pros and Cons of Drafting Walker in 2023
There are so many things going against selecting Walker this season, despite his stellar rookie year. We also haven’t mentioned the structural penalties that you incur by taking a third-round running back that doesn’t even catch passes. You have to assume that he can overcome the historical hit rates that are going against him. Then, assume that the second-round back they just drafted won’t factor in. Then, you have to say that Geno Smith will be able to sustain his comeback story from last season. After all that, you still have to project double-digit touchdowns to make up for his lack of pass-catching upside.
In redraft formats, he’s an easy fade for me. He’ll get some high-value touches near the goal line, but I’m not willing to take a chance on a two-down back with no pass-catching upside.
This article originally appeared on 4for4.com
Matt Jones has been a fantasy writer for the past eight years across various sites. He uses a data-driven approach to find trends and patterns that you can use for leverage in season-long and DFS. Find him on Twitter @Matt JonesTFR.
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