Fantasy Football: Don't want to spend a high 2023 draft pick on a great RB? Get AJ Dillon
By Matt Jones, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
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For many people, AJ Dillon burst onto the scene thanks to a picture of his quads that went viral on Twitter. I’m not sure how much that affected his trajectory in ADP over the last few years, but it certainly didn’t hurt. Luckily, for those who drafted him in the last two seasons, his production has been as impressive as his leg muscles. He’s stuck firmly in a timeshare with Aaron Jones but that doesn’t mean he’s not valuable.
A two-headed monster is still a monster and the Green Bay Packers have been more than happy to feed both backs. 4for4's very own Pranav Rajaram posted a piece about Aaron Jones’ outlook for this year which should serve as a great companion piece to this one.
The two-headed monster
Dillon has finished as a fringe RB2 in each of the past two years in half-PPR formats. That happened alongside Jones finishing as an RB1. Some of that production was buoyed by Aaron Rodgers, who’s now in New York to talk about psychedelics and play quarterback for the Jets. The Packer offense already took a step back last season and both Dillon and Jones were still able to produce, so I’m not terribly concerned about Jordan Love. We’re hoping for a Goldilocks zone where the offense can move the ball enough to allow the running backs to score points but Love is bad enough that they emphasize the running game.
AJ Dillon’s production profile
Dillon has fallen just shy of 200 carries in each of the past two seasons with 187 and 186 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. For a team’s RB2, that’s still plenty of volume. He’s mostly considered a runner and the Packers trust him when the offense is close to the end zone. Dillon out-carried Jones inside the 10 and inside the five-yard line last season.
That’s not to say that he can’t be an asset in the passing game, though. Jones will handle most of the passing game work but Dillon has averaged 40 targets over the last two seasons. That target share and goal-line work is a valuable role even though he’s in a timeshare.
Analyzing Dillon’s ADP
Dillon's and Jones' respective Yahoo ADPs are separated by about five-six rounds.
When running backs on the same team go relatively close to one another, you can scoop up value by taking the back drafted second. The RB1’s ADP tells you the value of the offense and role. If something happens to the RB1, you’re in a great spot by drafting their replacement. That’s not to say we’re rooting for injuries, but injuries are a reality of the sport and we have to take that into account when drafting. The best part about Dillon is that we know he has standalone value even if Jones smashes all year.
There’s also an opportunity cost associated with drafting Jones, though. You’re taking him over guys like Joe Mixon and Patrick Mahomes whereas you’re taking Dillon over guys like Gabe Davis and Damien Harris.
Conclusions
Historically, drafting the cheaper guy in a running back timeshare has been a profitable strategy. Most of the time, when we’re doing that, we’re merely hoping that it works out and the backup is serviceable. With Dillon, we know that he has RB2 upside even if Jones is finishes as an RB1 like he has the past two seasons.
In Yahoo's RB rankings, Dillon is currently the RB34, with Jones ranked as the RB13 in half-PPR formats. In redraft, I’m more than happy to see Dillon falling into the ninth round and will gladly take him whenever I can.
This article originally appeared on 4for4.com
Matt Jones has been a fantasy writer for the past eight years across various sites. He uses a data-driven approach to find trends and patterns that you can use for leverage in season-long and DFS. Find him on Twitter @Matt JonesTFR.
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