Fantasy Football Booms and Busts, Week 16: Vikings and Giants have a holiday party in the dome
When you’re handing out fantasy football game balls for Week 16, don’t forget one for U.S. Bank Stadium. That’s where the Minnesota Vikings play, and that was the place to be in the early window on Christmas Eve.
Most of the stars were popping in Minnesota’s 27-24 victory on Saturday. Justin Jefferson staked his claim as fantasy’s best wideout, posting a silly 12-133-1 line on 16 targets. He’s been at 24 points or higher for three straight games, producing in the money weeks. Tight end T.J. Hockenson did even better with his 16 targets — 13-109-2, an absolute feast at fantasy’s weakest position. Kirk Cousins didn’t involve the others much, but he still finished with 299 yards passing and three scores.
Dalvin Cook was a minor disappointment (77 total yards, no score) and for the second straight week, Adam Thielen (1-6-0) was an afterthought. But most of the primary Vikings raced past expectations.
It helps to have Minnesota’s leaky secondary on the other side, keeping the opponent in the game. Daniel Jones threw for 334 yards and a score, and all three of his primary wideouts came through. Isaiah Hodgins (8-89-1) had the lone touchdown catch, but Richie James (8-90-0) and Darius Slayton (4-79-0) were also productive. The Giants also moved the ball on the ground, mainly through Saquon Barkley (133 total yards, touchdown) and the enterprising Jones (34 rushing yards).
With nasty winter weather throughout America taking over much of the early-window slate, it was reassuring to settle in to Minnesota’s climate control. It never snows in the dome. The air conditioning doesn’t throw off anyone’s passing game. You could backline this matchup with confidence.
Hopefully you took the indoor theme one step further and played it safe at kicker. Graham Gano and Greg Joseph spent the afternoon one-upping each other and racking up points. Gano had the early foot, converting from 44, 44, and 55 yards. Then Joseph ended the game in dramatic fashion, nailing a 61-yard kick at the buzzer. He also had a 40-yard field goal in the second quarter.
Contrast those kickers to the situation in frosty New England, where Nick Folk missed two extra points and Evan McPherson whiffed a field goal and a PAT. Folk and McPherson are great kickers normally, but the weather was uncooperative in Foxborough. Why run uphill when you don’t have to?
Back to the Vikings and Giants for a second, that game had particularly favorable pace in the fourth quarter, when the teams combined for 28 points. Jefferson’s touchdown came with 3:06 remaining, and the Giants scored on a Barkley run (and tacked on the two-point conversion) just 59 second later, tying the game. That allowed Cousins and friends to tack on some extra yards, before Joseph connected from the parking lot.
Late scoring, that’s the nectar of the fantasy gods. Josh Allen managers love him rushing in a touchdown inside of four minutes at Chicago, then throwing a touchdown pass to Dawson Knox with 1:08 to play (Matt Harmon’s favorite holiday present) with the game already in hand. Allen didn’t have his best fantasy game of the year, but the late surge pushed him up to QB3 by the time the early window closed.
Jared Goff wore the QB1 jersey at the window closing, another win for Garbage Time Heroes. The Panthers trampled Detroit’s run defense, which set up Goff for a ton of late volume. He finished with 355 yards passing and three scores, while the Lions managed just 45 rushing yards.
While Goff did plenty with D.J. Chark (4-108-0) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-76-0), it was unknown tight end Shane Zylstra (5-26-3) who gobbled up all of the touchdowns. Zylstra had eight career catches and 61 career receiving yards before Saturday. Some holiday miracles can never be explained.
Speed Round
• The Panthers got everyone off the scent last week with the bad loss against Pittsburgh, then trampled Detroit like a herd of buffalo. Maybe last week was more about the Steelers defense being excellent, not about Carolina being mediocre. Not counting what the Bengals did in Week 11, this is what the Steelers defense has allowed for yardage the last six games: 186 yards, 290 yards, 306 yards, 309 yards, 209 yards (against Carolina), and then 201 to the Raiders on Saturday night.
Pittsburgh rematches Baltimore next week. Could be another race to 13 points.
• Saturday was a grand day for Iowa tight ends, with Hockenson outscoring all players and George Kittle (6-120-2) finishing fifth overall. Hockenson’s Minnesota production before Week 16 was primarily about opportunity — his yards per target were much better in Detroit — but he looked like an uncoverable freak against the Giants. Next year is merely Hockenson’s age-26 season; there’s still time for him to cash in on his first-round pedigree.
• It didn’t earn headlines, but Trevor Lawrence playing a near mistake-free game on the road against the Jets — in the rain, no less — was almost as impressive as beating the Cowboys and Ravens. Imagine what Lawrence’s upside can be next year if Calvin Ridley is capable of being even a Top 20 receiver again. I still think the Jags are making a mistake not using Travis Etienne more proactively in the passing game.
• The Jets have now used four quarterbacks this year — one of them in his age-37 season, two of them without any pedigree whatsoever — and Zach Wilson has been the worst of the four. The Jets need to move on from this mistake as soon as possible, or else they have no idea what a sunk cost is. The rest of the roster is too good to waste any additional time on Wilson. It’s not going to be fixed here.
• Gardner Minshew’s stats were better than the tape, but no one will quibble over a QB5 finish in his first start. I still say he’s good enough to start somewhere down the road, but Philadelphia was shrewd to acquire him from the Jaguars for an insignificant sixth-round draft pick. The Eagles are thrilled to be one of the teams not instantly torpedoed when the starting quarterback gets injured.
• The Saints pushed the Browns around in the second half, coincidentally when New Orleans finally realized Taysom Hill’s skills deserved to be involved. Cleveland looked awfully soft for a supposed power team from a cold-weather city, and every week Deshaun Watson looks like he just met his teammates five minutes before kickoff.
• Desmond Ridder has been overwhelmed in two starts, but at least he’s getting the ball to Drake London. Marcus Mariota had three months and he couldn’t do that consistently.
• Terry McLaurin would be a superstar with a different team or with a different quarterback; at present, he's a very good player held back by his passing teammates. And maybe Jahan Dotson is going to eventually get there no matter who he plays with. Washington surprisingly managed 8.5 YPA against the mighty Niners defense, but two turnovers, two sacks, and an agonizing failure at the goal line in the first half allowed San Francisco to pull away. Taylor Heinicke is probably the best short-team solution here, but Ron Rivera might play Carson Wentz next week against Cleveland anyway. We’ll know in a few days.
