Fantasy Football: Matt Harmon's 13 candidates to be 2023's top-scoring WR

Over the past several seasons, I’ve discussed the “three pillars” a player must have in his outlook in order to become the fantasy WR1 overall. All of this made it easy to see that Justin Jefferson was a near-perfect candidate for the honor.

Those three pillars are:

1. Must own a dominant target share in his offense

2. Must be tethered to an efficient quarterback/offense

3. Must be verifiably great at football

Time to spin forward to 2023.

Using those pillars, let’s take a look at my top ranked receivers to examine how clean their paths are to potentially push for the WR1 overall title in 2023.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Target share: Yes

Jefferson had a 26.6% target share of the Viking' offense last season. Even with a juiced-up receiver in rookie Jordan Addison taking over for Adam Thielen and the newly extended T.J. Hockenson with a full offseason in the system, there’s no way Jefferson is losing work. His 43.2% air yard share ranked third among pass-catchers.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Despite Kirk Cousins checking in with lower finishes in yards per attempt and touchdown rate relative to the rest of his Vikings tenure, I think he played excellent ball last year while being asked to do more. The Vikings were the 10th overall offense in dropback EPA. Kevin O’Connell got the best out of this unit last season.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Jefferson is the best wide receiver on the planet right now. He’s an elite route-runner, a pristine ball-winner in tight coverage and a master of the explosive play. We know he has the ability to do this because we’ve seen it before.

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Target share: Yes

The national narrative seems to hold that Tee Higgins and Chase are close from a usage standpoint and that might hinder the ceiling for the latter. But that’s not really the case. According to Fantasy Points Data, Chase has a first-read target share of 37.3% in the Bengals' offense, compared to 21.1% for Higgins. It’s no slight to Higgins, who is excellent; Chase is just on a different level.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Joe Burrow and Chase have a long history together and have proven to be a dead combo in the NFL. Their connection is more than good enough to push Chase to a WR1 overall finish.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

You shouldn’t need me to tell you that. Chase’s rookie year showed us that he was one of the most dangerous big-play threats in the NFL. Last season, he got it done more in the short and intermediate areas. Overall, Chase has essentially no holes in his game, including being one of the most underrated route technicians in the NFL.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Target share: Yes

Emphatically, yes. Kupp led the league with a 29.9% target share of his team’s offense last season. Only Chris Godwin and Deebo Samuel had higher rates of designed targets, per Fantasy Points Data, than Kupp at 23.7% (minimum 60 targets). The whole offense flows through Kupp when healthy, and while I like guys such as Van Jefferson and Puka Nacua as sleepers, they’re unlikely to threaten these numbers.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes … hopefully

This does likely hinge on Matthew Stafford staying on the field. He’s said to be healthier than he has been in years after being on a pitch count for most of last offseason. If Stafford can hold up and the line is better than last season, the Rams' offense will be better than expectations. Kupp can produce in disaster scenarios, as we observed in 2022, but there is a house of cards effect in play.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Kupp is one of the most unique receivers in the league, but he’s so good at what he does, he deserves to be mentioned among the game’s elite. He’s the best zone-beating receiver in the game since he entered the league and offers near-perfect hands and sneaky big-play ability. Another successful season should be in the works, so long as his current hamstring injury isn't a recurring issue throughout the season.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Target share: Yes

The Dolphins have perhaps the most highly concentrated offense in the NFL. Hill and Jaylen Waddle accounted for 48.8% of the team’s targets in 2022. Hill had a near 9% lead over Waddle. You could argue there is even less legitimate competition for targets this season, with Mike Gesicki moving on and leaving mostly blocking specialists at tight end and coach’s pet Trent Sherfield heading out of town.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes … hopefully

Much like Kupp, Hill’s ability to hit these heights likely depends on his quarterback’s availability. Hill was fine in games without Tua Tagovailoa last year, but the overall offensive environment really suffered. Those games overlapped with contests left tackle Terron Armstead didn’t play. His health is a big factor in this.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

If there was any doubt about who Hill was as a full-field, true No. 1 receiver during his Chiefs’ years, those were put to bed in 2022. He’s an elite wideout who wins at all levels as a route runner, after the catch and in tight coverage.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

Target share: Yes

Diggs finished with the ninth-highest target share in the NFL last season. While Buffalo added some bit players to bring more juice to the offense, the Bills aren’t going to shave work away from Diggs. He has been the accelerant to their offense, helping it reach new heights for years.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

The Bills' offense ranked second in EPA per play and success rate in what was widely viewed as a disappointing season for the unit. This was while their quarterback was dealing with an elbow injury for half the year.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Diggs is a superstar. He’s the best route-runner in the NFL, has elite hands and brings big play ability to the field. He’s a slam-dunk top-five receiver.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Target share: Yes

Brown is flanked by a true 1B receiver in DeVonta Smith and a great tight end in Dallas Goedert. But the answer is still yes because the offense is so highly concentrated. Those three players accounted for 68.4% of the team’s targets, which is nuts. No one else finished with higher than 10%, and only two more were north of 5%.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Jalen Hurts is the centerpiece of one of the best offensive attacks in the NFL. Brown brought forward the best in Hurts, but the quarterback also shined a light on skills of Brown’s we didn’t see the Titans use. Brown and Hurts were a lethal combination on go routes in 2022.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Brown is a hulking receiver who works the middle with precision and plays bully-ball. He’s also a top-five route-runner in my book and has been top-five in success rate vs. man and press coverage the past three years in Reception Perception.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Target share: Yes

Lamb owned the fifth-highest target share in the NFL last season, at 27.3%. There has been some talk from Dallas writers that Lamb might cede some targets with Brandin Cooks on the roster and Michael Gallup coming back healthy. I like those guys and expect them to play big roles, but color me skeptical.

You target the hell out of your great players. Lamb is that good — he has earned those targets.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Say what you want about Dak Prescott, but he’s more than good enough to captain a productive offense. Dallas was ninth in dropback EPA last season. Despite Mike McCarthy’s public comments about running the ball, he always rolls out pass-friendly units.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Oh, yes, Lamb is a great receiver. He has fantastic timing and rhythm as a route-runner and is a silky separator. The Cowboys could further tap into his skills after the catch in a more traditional, west-coast type of offense this season.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

Target share: Yes

The Raiders made a big swing for Adams in a trade with the Packers and immediately made him the centerpiece of their offense. His 28.8% target share was bested only by Cooper Kupp, who didn’t play the full season.

There are other questions in the Raiders’ offense. Adams’ standing is not one of them.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

About those other questions. The Raiders elected to move on from Derek Carr — considering he was 26th in success rate and 28th in completion rate over expected, that’s fine — and replaced him with Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G has always been an efficient player, but it’s worth wondering how that will translate out of the Shanahan Bubble.

Rookie Aidan O'Connell had a nice preseason, but overall, I think this is the most dubious quarterback situation for any player on this list.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Adams has been on an unrivaled tear since the 2018 season. He is one of the best wide receivers of this era and showed zero signs of decline in Year 1 with the Raiders. He’s quarterback-proof. Any questions brought on under center will be offset, to some degree, by his own play.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Target share: Yes

St. Brown’s overall target share ranked 10th last season, and his First Read Target share of 33.9% ranked seventh. He actually cleared Justin Jefferson and volume-sponge DeAndre Hopkins. There’s nothing standing in the way of St. Brown and 150 targets this year.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

Detroit’s offense was awesome by any measure. They ranked ninth in overall success rate and third in EPA per dropback, and Jared Goff was fifth in adjusted yards per attempt. Yet I can’t shake some skepticism. The Lions are relying on St. Brown — who primarily wins in the short to intermediate area — and two rookies in a running back and tight end to be their primary passing game threats. Goff is a good quarterback but not necessarily a teammate-elevator. That could put a capped ceiling on this unit no matter how highly I think of the play-caller.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Already a dynamite power-slot player, St. Brown has made so much progress winning against man coverage in tight situations. He just ran a little unlucky with touchdowns in the red zone. A 110-catch, 10-plus touchdown season is within his range of outcomes. He’s just so good at the game.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Target share: Yes

Wilson owned a 33.1% share of the team’s first-read targets and accounted for 27.3% of the team’s receiving yards and 26.7% of the touchdowns. He will be far and away the top passing-game threat in New York.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

In case you haven’t heard, the Jets acquired a new quarterback. No matter what you think of Aaron Rodgers at this stage of his career, he’s a massive upgrade over what Wilson played with as a rookie. Rodgers captained the Packers to be the sixth-best offense in the NFL in terms of success rate last year. He’s far from finished.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Wilson was incredible as a rookie. His 81.2% success rate vs. press coverage in Reception Perception put him in some enviable company. The following receivers have hit an 80% success rate vs. press: CeeDee Lamb, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr.

Seems like a good indicator.

His release moves coupled with his over-the-middle route running and YAC skills are a perfect blend for Rodgers.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Target share: Yes

Olave’s 37.3% share of his team’s air yards was a top-15 mark among all pass-catchers, and his 31.9% first-read target share was in the neighborhood of A.J. Brown and Amari Cooper. That was with the Saints limiting his snaps in some early games. He’s going to eat volume this season.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

Andy Dalton shined in some advanced metrics last year. That’s because he was throwing to a receiver who was always open in Chris Olave. Derek Carr is an average starting quarterback, but that should help even out some of Olave’s game. Carr was also the trigger-man who pushed Davante Adams to a career-best yards per catch.

We can get a full alpha season out of Olave with Carr.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Olave came into the NFL as a pro-level route runner with explosive play potential. He translated all of that right away. He can take another leap this year and solidify himself as a fringe top-10 wideout. Olave is that good.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Target share: Eh

As mentioned in the Hill section, the Dolphins' passing game is highly concentrated between these two receivers. That said, there was a near-10% gap between Hill and Waddle from a target-share standpoint. As good as Waddle is, Hill is still the top dog on this team.

If Hill missed time, however, Waddle would go to the moon.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes … hopefully

With Tua Tagovailoa on the field and a little bit of evolution from Mike McDaniel in Year 2 to form a credible counterpunch to defensive adjustments, this unit should be electric. It’s the right environment for Waddle to soar. There’s just some volatility we need to account for.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Waddle proved to be a near-elite zone-beating receiver last year. He and Tua were in complete sync over the intermediate middle of the field, and we know he can also shred defenses deep. I think he needs to get a bit better at dealing with press-man coverage on the outside, but that's picking nits.

Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars

Target share: Yes, most likely.

It’s a projection, but Ridley is going to be the clear alpha of this talented passing game if preseason usage is any indication. Ridley’s ability to get open and beat press-man coverage is exactly what this offense needed last year. Players of his talent get the ball.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Trevor Lawrence is the best non-obvious MVP bet of the season. The Jaguars are a good team, and he ranked ninth in EPA per dropback in his second season. And remember, that was really his first season with serious coaching. The sky is the limit for Lawrence.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

I know it’s tough to project Ridley after a long layoff, but last we saw him, he was on the Stefon Diggs upward trajectory. Think about where you would have him ranked if the absence weren't a factor …

I’m betting that by October, we will be back to considering Ridley a top-12 wide receiver in the sport, like he never left.