Fantasy Baseball: Chas McCormick worth a closer look thanks to spot in Astros lineup
The Astros lineup is filled with plausible MVP candidates. Chas McCormick is not one of them. But that doesn’t mean McCormick can’t give us some fantasy help.
McCormick was a solid if unspectacular member of the Astros the past two years. He conked 28 home runs in 643 at-bats, with eight steals and a .250/.326/.425 slash. That line hashed out to a 108 OPS+, about 8% better than a league-average hitter.
The Astros didn’t hand McCormick a sure starting job entering spring training — he had to compete with Jake Meyers — but McCormick is the regular center fielder now. And nearly as importantly, he has percolated to the top of the Houston lineup, slotting leadoff the past five games. Location, location, location.
The early returns are encouraging. McCormick is off to a .275/.370/.500 start, with two homers and a perfect 4-for-4 on steals. He has always had a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but his strikeout rate is down a little bit, currently at 25.5%. He’s also walking 10.6% of the time, a useful rate. McCormick was all over the box in Wednesday’s 7-0 win at Pittsburgh, with two singles, a walk, two runs and a stolen base.
Full disclosure: McCormick’s Statcast page makes for anxious viewing. He ranks poorly in the hard-hit metrics, and with that, the expected stats don’t validate his early slash line. McCormick’s expected batting average, per the Statcast data, is a puny .193. His expected slugging comes in at .302, a major tumble from the current number.
Even if we’re mindful of those warning signs, I’ll still sign off on McCormick in mixed formats. He might be able to keep this leadoff spot while Jose Altuve is on the injured list — and that could be another six weeks, at least. McCormick has shown category juice in the past, the ability to hit some homers and steal the occasional base. His quick start on the bases will likely encourage the Astros to keep flashing him the green light.
Often in fantasy baseball, perfect can be the enemy of good. McCormick’s true upside is modest, and maybe he’ll be slotted in the bottom third of the order later this year. But if he’s currently producing, I’m not going to overthink it. He’s welcome to play on any of my medium-sized mixed teams, and if you compete in a deeper mixed group, McCormick is probably long gone. He currently charts at 23% rostered in Yahoo leagues.
Rays keep winning; Chris Sale keeps struggling
The Tampa Bay Rays have been the talk of baseball, rattling off a 13-game winning streak and destroying just about everything in their path. The Rays have won 12 of those games by multiple runs and hold a plus-71 run differential on the season. In other words, their average margin of victory is an absurd 5.5 runs. This also means if you bet the run line on Tampa Bay every game — in which you need to cover the 1.5 spread — you’d be 11-1. This has been an April ATM.
The Rays showed us a glimpse of the future Wednesday, when highly rated rookie Taj Bradley out-dueled scuffling Boston lefty Chris Sale. Bradley went five innings, and though he allowed three runs, he walked just one and struck out eight. When in doubt, follow the K/BB rate, especially when it’s in this swanky a neighborhood.
Bradley ranked 20th, 23rd and 44th on the three primary scouting boards before the year. Last season, in his age-22 campaign, the righty posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A, with 141 strikeouts and 33 walks over 133.1 innings. Fun numbers.
It seemed like Zach Eflin’s back injury meant Bradley could stay up for a while, but he was sent down Thursday in a semi-surprising move. He's still someone to consider stashing or adding when he's called back up, as I’m eager to roster anything plausible tied to this Tampa Bay juggernaut. At the moment, Bradley is rostered in 29% of Yahoo leagues.
I wish I had some optimism for beleaguered Sale managers. While Sale is still piling up strikeouts — he has whiffed 19 batters over his 12 innings — he has also walked seven men, and he’s currently holding a jagged 11.25 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He allowed seven runs to the Orioles, three runs to the Tigers and six runs (five earned) in Wednesday’s loss under the Tampa Bay catwalk.
The spring optimism on Sale (his March ADP was an expectant 126) didn’t make sense to me. He has done very little the past three years — just 11 starts — and he’s entering his age-34 campaign. He has always had a violent delivery, which made some scouts wonder about Sale's long-term sustainability as a starter. This looks like an albatross contract for the Red Sox and a maintenance question for fantasy managers.
At least Sale gets to work outside the division for the next couple of turns. He’ll draw the Angels — with Shohei Ohtani the opposing starter — in his next turn, then it’s a game at Milwaukee. Nonetheless, I can't go anywhere near Sale until he shows something positive. Start Sale at your own risk right now.
