ESPN predicts each 2022 Ohio State football game using its FPI ‘Matchup Predictor’

·5 min read

If you are like me, you’ve gotten the summer vacation out of the way and are now buckled in and turning your focus to the upcoming college football season. Things have flown by since we last saw Ohio State play a game for the ages against Utah in the Rose Bowl, and now we are just a couple of months away from some scarlet and gray showing up on a high-definition television or streaming device near you.

Each year, we like to keep an eye on what ESPN’s Football Power Index says about the Buckeyes. And as the season draws near and in-season, its “Matchup Predictor” uses bleeps and bloops to churn out the percentage chance of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule.

As luck would have it, the scientists, epidemiologists, and Pythagorean Theory-types have sprung those chances of winning each game on the 2022 schedule on us for the first time this season.

So, now that I’m back from sailing the high seas with Mickey Mouse and my family, it’s time to see what the worldwide leader thinks the chances of OSU  winning all of its 2022 regular-schedule American college football games are.

We start with Notre Dame (yeah, that should be fun), and work our way down to Michigan (also fun in a revenge and TPing the Wolverine neighbor sort of way).

Sept. 3 vs. Notre Dame

Marcus Freeman was reportedly offered D-coordinator gig at Ohio State
Marcus Freeman was reportedly offered D-coordinator gig at Ohio State

Nov 27, 2021; Stanford, California, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman stands on the sideline during the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 83.5%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 4-2

Projected running record: 1-0

Sept. 10 vs. Arkansas State

Oct 7, 2021; Jonesboro, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Layne Hatcher (3) fakes the handoff to running back Lincoln Pare (22) at Centennial Bank Stadium. Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 99.3%
All-Time Series: First Matchup

Projected running record: 2-0

 

Sept. 17 vs. Toledo

Sep 23, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Toledo Rockets head coach Jason Candle looks on from the sideline in the game against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 3-0

Projected running record: 3-0

 

Sept. 24 vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) runs for a long first down in the third quarter against Nebraska Cornhuskers safety Myles Farmer (4) during their football game Saturday, November 20, 2021, at Camp Randall in Madison, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 92.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 61-18-5

Projected running record: 4-0

 

Oct. 1 vs. Rutgers

WATCH: What Rutgers HC Greg Schiano said about Ohio State postgame
WATCH: What Rutgers HC Greg Schiano said about Ohio State postgame

Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano walks on the field during pregame warmups before an NCAA Division I football game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey. Credit: Columbus Dispatch

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.5%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0

Projected running record: 5-0

 

Oct. 8 at Michigan State

Michigan State Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne (10) runs the ball against the Maryland Terrapins during first-half action Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021, at Spartan Stadium. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network

Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, MI)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 83.1%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 35-15

Projected running record: 6-0

 

Oct. 22 vs. Iowa

Iowa Hawkeyes players Ryan Gersonde (2) Riley Moss (33) quarterback Spencer Petras (7) wide receiver Max Cooper (19) and defensive back Jack Koerner (28) get pumped up before an NCAA Big Ten Conference football game against Indiana, Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-15-3

Projected running record: 7-0

Oct. 29 at Penn State

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin yells during the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. Credit: The Columbus Dispatch

Beaver Stadium (State College, PA)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.9%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 22-14

Projected running record: 8-0

Nov. 5 at Northwestern

Sep 25, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald on the sideline during the first half against the Ohio Bobcats at Ryan Field. Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Field (Evanston, IL)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.8%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 64-14-1

Projected running record: 9-0

 

Nov. 12 vs. Indiana

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. on Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021. Ohio State won 54-7. Credit: The Columbus Dispatch

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 77-12-5

Projected running record: 10-0

Nov. 19 at Maryland

Oct 1, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Dontay Demus Jr. (7) is hit by Iowa Hawkeyes linebacker Kelby Telander (25) during the first half at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium (College Park, MD)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 90.6%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0

Projected running record: 11-0

Nov. 19 vs. Michigan

Michigan football borrows, ah-hem, steals tradition from Ohio State
Michigan football borrows, ah-hem, steals tradition from Ohio State

Jim Harbaugh would owe Michigan a $1.5 million buyout if he were to leave this year.
Ohio State Buckeyes At Michigan Wolverines. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 84.8%
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-59-6

Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0

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