ESPN’s matchup predictor forecasts Purdue game, remainder of Iowa’s season
The Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) are fresh off a gritty, come-from-behind 26-16 win over Michigan State (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten).
It featured an electric 70-yard punt return touchdown from star defensive back Cooper DeJean that sent Kinnick Stadium into pandemonium and put Iowa in front to stay.
During the win, starting quarterback Cade McNamara was injured on a scramble. In the days since, Iowa head football coach Kirk Ferentz revealed that McNamara will indeed miss the rest of the 2023 season with a torn ACL.
That meant that the Hawkeyes turned to backup quarterback and Wisconsin transfer Deacon Hill versus Michigan State and that they will the rest of the way in 2023.
Given the circumstances, Hill performed well. The 6-foot-3, 258 pound sophomore completed 11-of-27 passes for 115 yards with one touchdown pass and one interception.
Hill’s lone touchdown toss went to senior tight end Erick All, who caught the pass from Hill, broke several tackles and then powered his way into the end zone from 13 yards out.
It didn’t help Hill’s stat line that Iowa receivers dropped a number of passes. But, the most important stat for Hill is that he and the Hawkeyes found a way to pick up their first Big Ten win of 2023.
The Santa Barbara, Calif., native will get his first career start coming up on Saturday as the Hawkeyes welcome in the Purdue Boilermakers at 2:30 p.m. CT on Peacock.
With Hill now grabbing the reins, what does it mean for the rest of Iowa’s season? Let’s take a look at how ESPN’s matchup predictor is forecasting the remainder of Iowa’s season now that Hill is officially running the show.
vs. Purdue on Oct. 7
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 68.0% (down from 74.7% two weeks ago)
All-Time Series: Iowa trails, 40-50-3
Last meeting: Iowa 24, Purdue 3
Projected running record: 5-1 (2-1 Big Ten)
at Wisconsin on Oct. 14
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 33.0% (down from 46.3% two weeks ago)
All-Time Series: Iowa trails, 45-49-2
Last meeting: Iowa 24, Wisconsin 10
Projected running record: 5-2 (2-2 Big Ten)
vs. Minnesota on Oct. 21
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 63.1% (down from 66.2% two weeks ago)
All-Time Series: Iowa trails, 52-62-2
Last meeting: Iowa 13, Minnesota 10
Projected running record: 6-2 (3-2 Big Ten)
vs. Northwestern (from Wrigley Field) on Nov. 4
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 74.1% (down from 76.9% two weeks ago)
All-Time Series: Iowa leads, 53-28-3
Last meeting: Iowa 33, Northwestern 12
Projected running record: 7-2 (4-2 Big Ten)
vs. Rutgers on Nov. 11
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 65.1% (down from 67.6% two weeks ago)
All-Time Series: Iowa leads, 3-0
Last meeting: Iowa 27, Rutgers 10
Projected running record: 8-2 (5-2 Big Ten)
vs. Illinois on Nov. 18
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 74.0% (up from 70.6% two weeks ago)
All-Time Series: Iowa trails, 37-39-2
Last meeting: Illinois 9, Iowa 6
Projected running record: 9-2 (6-2 Big Ten)
at Nebraska on Nov. 24
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 68.2% (up from 67.3% two weeks ago)
All-Time Series: Iowa trails, 20-30-3
Last meeting: Nebraska 24, Iowa 17
Projected running record: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten)
Takeaway
Even with the injury to McNamara, nothing has changed for Iowa in terms of ESPN’s 2023 season-long predictions. ESPN’s matchup predictor still likes the Hawkeyes to finish 10-2 overall and 7-2 in the Big Ten, forecasting Iowa to end the regular season on a five-game winning streak.
It’s not altogether surprising that the analytics on Iowa wouldn’t have really changed all that much. It’s not like the Hawkeyes’ offense was delivering eye-popping numbers throughout the season’s first four weeks. Obviously, it was much to the contrary.
So, with Hill taking over under center, it shouldn’t change too much for the Hawkeyes. That’s a commentary on Iowa’s offense, the Hawkeyes’ defense and special teams and the state of life in the Big Ten West.
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