ESPN FPI updates Notre Dame’s odds to beat Ohio State, make playoff
Notre Dame is 4-0 and ready for one of its biggest home games in years as the always loaded Ohio State Buckeyes come to South Bend for the first time since 1996.
Is Notre Dame closing the gap? Are the Irish a legitimate national championship contender or have they simply beat up on mediocre opponents?
We’ll know a lot more about the 2023 Fighting Irish and what their ceiling really is in just a few days.
ESPN has its football power index it uses to project what is to come each college football season and update it after each week of games. Here is what FPI says about Notre Dame’s chances for their eight remaining regular season games and their chances of making the College Football Playoff and national championship.
Here is their latest projections regarding the Irish:
Sept. 23 vs. Ohio State
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 34.3%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 43.7%
Sept. 30 at Duke
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 71.8%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 89.0%
Oct. 7 at Louisville
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 70.9%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 75.3%
Oct. 14 vs. USC
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 52.3%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 54.2%
Oct. 28 vs. Pitt
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 89.6%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 87.0%
Nov. 4 at Clemson
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 57.7%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 66.6%
Nov. 18 vs. Wake Forest
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 92.9%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 93.1%
Nov. 25 at Stanford
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 94.9%
Odds on Sept. 11, 2023: 93.9%
Current Ranking
Notre Dame didn’t play anywhere near its best game against Central Michigan but won 41-17. The FPI certainly wasn’t impressed by the Irish as they fell from ninth to 12th in the weekly rankings.
Win-Loss Projection
Notre Dame’s win-loss projection took a hit from FPI this week, going from being projected at 9.9-2.1 a week ago to 9.6-2.4 this week.
12-0 Chances?
FPI gives Notre Dame a 5.8% chance to win each of its last eight games. That’s down a bit from the 9.9% chance it was given by the same outlet a week ago.
Playoff Chances
Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff? A week ago it was given a 22.1% chance to make it, but those odds have shrunk to 13.3% this week.
National Champs?
Notre Dame is given a 3% chance to win it all this week by the FPI after being at 5.1% last week.
Why did Notre Dame’s odds take such a hit? Likely because of how it played perhaps its worst game of the year against Central Michigan and Ohio State had its most impressive showing to date over Western Kentucky.
Luckily it will not be computers deciding the outcome, but a thrilling game Saturday night at Notre Dame Stadium instead.
