ESPN FPI Update: Oregon’s CFP odds go up after big win over USC
We’re getting down to it in the 2023 college football season, with just two regular-season games left on the schedule for the Oregon Ducks, and a potential Pac-12 Championship Game should they win both of those games.
That means fewer and fewer predictions about the upcoming games.
Next week against the Arizona State Sun Devils, the Ducks are heavy favorites early on. After that, they’ve got a highly-intense game against the Oregon State Beavers at home, potentially standing between them and a rematch with the Washington Huskies.
How likely is that to happen? Not very, if you ask the ESPN Football Power Index. As we do each and every week, let’s take a look at the FPI numbers, seeing win probability for the remaining two games on the schedule, and the likelihood that Oregon can stay alive throughout the month of December and into January as well:
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 96.4%
Previous FPI Odds: 97.3%
Analysis
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Sun Devils are a well-coached team under Kenny Dillingham, but the disparity in talent between Arizona State and Oregon is vast. While ASU has been able to pick up a few wins against middling Pac-12 teams, I don’t think they will pose much of a threat to the Ducks.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
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Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 80.8%
Previous FPI Odds: 83.4%
Analysis
The Beavers keep finding new ways to impress, the last of which was a 62-point performance against Stanford. Over the next two weeks, they play both Washington and Oregon, with a chance to throw some chaos in the Pac-12 title rematch hopes. I don’t think either the Ducks or Huskies feel extremely confident about that matchup, though they will be favored going in.
FPI Rankings
Photo Courtesy of Ethan Landa
FPI Score: 24.9
Previous: 25.3
FPI Rank: 3rd
Previous: 3rd
Projected Record: 11.4-1.5
Previous: 11.2-1.6
Analysis
Oregon’s FPI score went down a touch after the win over USC, but their ranking didn’t change at all. They are still viewed as the third-best team in the nation according to ESPN.
Pac-12 Title Odds
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Pac-12 Title Odds: 62.5% (1st)
Previous: 58.0% (1st)
Analysis
The Ducks have a chance to secure their spot in the Pac-12 title game next week with a win over ASU and some help, and should they get to Las Vegas, it’s likely that they will be favored over whoever they play.
College Football Playoff Odds
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
College Football Playoff Odds: 39.2% (6th)
Previous: 37.5% (7th)
Analysis
If the Ducks get to Las Vegas for the conference title game and end up winning, that doesn’t guarantee them a spot in the College Football Playoff. They still need a little bit of help, with the fear being that Alabama could beat Georgia in the SEC title game, and Texas could get through the Big 12 title game with a single loss as well. Then it becomes about resumes, and Oregon might not win that battle, though it will be close.
National Championship Odds
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
National Championship Odds: 18.8% (6th)
Previous: 19.0% (5th)
Win Championship Odds: 9.2% (6th)
Previous: 9.2% (5th)
