ESPN’s FPI gives Raiders an 11% chance of making postseason
The NFL season officially kicks off on Thursday as the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs are the favorites to win the Super Bowl once again, but could another team from the AFC West challenge them atop of the AFC West?
In a recent article by Bill Barnwell of ESPN, he wrote about every team’s playoff and Super Bowl chances heading into the 2023 season. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Raiders have just an 11% chance of making the postseason during the 2023 season.
Here is a snippet of Barnwell’s thoughts on the Raiders and why he believes they should have better odds to make the playoffs than 11%:
I wrote earlier that 14 of the 16 AFC teams could expect to compete for a playoff berth. The Raiders are the 14th and final team on that list, and their expectations might be misguided. Then again, if quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy, it’s hard to argue with the results; he has won 40 of his 57 NFL starts.
If he can keep that ratio up in Vegas, the Raiders will be a playoff team. There’s enough star power here that they should be competitive if those guys stay healthy and they don’t go 4-9 in one-score games again.
The Raiders made the postseason in 2021 and they were highly competitive in most games last season. If they can go 7-6 (rather than 4-9) in close games, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them get to nine or ten wins and sneak into the playoffs.
But for that to happen, Garoppolo is going to need to stay healthy and prove to be an upgrade over Derek Carr. Time will tell if that’s the case, but don’t rule out the Raiders being a possible sleeper in the AFC just yet.
