ESPN FPI: Ducks now favored to beat USC and Utah; win probability drops vs. Washington
The national view of the Oregon Ducks is starting to rise.
While their win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 2 may not have been as impressive as it could have been, I think most common fans respect the ability to go into a hostile environment and come back to beat a decent squad. The win over Hawaii will not get you many brownie points in general, but it’s the way they won — dominating all three facets of the game — that was the most impressive.
Now, as we enter conference play, the Ducks are in a pretty good spot, finally cracking the top 10 in the Associated Press rankings and rolling with quite a bit of momentum.
After each week of the season, we look at the ESPN FPI and see how the projections change based on the previous result. For the Ducks, projections are currently pretty high. The probability that they win the Pac-12, make it to the College Football Playoff and ultimately play for a national championship game rose over the weekend.
Take a look at the latest FPI predictions following Week 3:
Week 4 vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 93.9%
Previous FPI Odds: 90.5%
Analysis
ESPN doesn’t appear to be impressed by what Colorado did in Week 3, needing two overtime periods to beat the Colorado State Rams. The Ducks are massive favorites in this one, which should be an entertaining affair in Autzen Stadium.
Week 5 at Stanford Cardinal
Darryl Oumi/Getty Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 96.2%
Previous FPI Odds: 91.9%
Analysis
If you lose to Sacramento State, I’d argue your win probability against a ranked team should be less than 1%. I will not be shocked to see this gap widen after Week 4.
Week 7 at Washington Huskies
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 48.4%
Previous FPI Odds: 51.2%
Analysis
This is the only negative movement for Oregon in the FPI this week. They are favored to lose on the road at Washington, which doesn’t come as much of a surprise. The Huskies are a very good team, and they look every bit of a College Football Playoff contender. I’m surprised it took this long for the Ducks not to be favored on the road in Seattle.
Week 8 vs. Washington State Cougars
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 88.7%
Previous FPI Odds: 85.1%
Analysis
I think the biggest potential change in this win probability will come after this week. We will finally see Washington State play a really good team in Oregon State, so it will give us a good idea of how legit they really are.
Week 9 at Utah Utes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 62.6%
Previous FPI Odds: 51.5%
Analysis
This is a really big bump, seemingly out of nowhere for the Ducks. While Utah continues to win, it continues to be without starting quarterback Cam Rising. If that lingers over the next several weeks, it could spell trouble for Kyle Whittingham now that conference play is upon us.
Week 10 vs. California Golden Bears
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 86.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 80.4%
Analysis
I’m not shocked Oregon’s probability of winning this game went up. The Golden Bears struggled with the Idaho Vandals over the weekend, which tells me all that I need to know. They might be able to beat the bad teams in the Pac-12, but they have very little business staying close with the good teams.
Week 11 vs. USC Trojans
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 51.6%
Previous FPI Odds: 42.1%
Analysis
That is not a jump I expected. While USC was enjoying an early bye week over the weekend, the Ducks apparently did enough to persuade ESPN’s FPI that they should finally be favored at home over the Trojans. I’m curious to see how this number changes, if at all, over the next several weeks.
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 97.0%
Previous FPI Odds: 93.6%
Analysis
I wrote last week that we should go ahead and stop delaying the inevitable by putting Oregon’s win probability at 99.9% over the Sun Devils. Then Arizona State went and lost, 29-0, to Fresno State. Go ahead and make it 100% at this point.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
Ali Gradischer/Getty Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 65.5%
Analysis
Similar to Washington State, I will be interested to see how this number changes a week from now. The Beavers will finally face a really good team, and we will get a look at how serious of contenders they really are in the Pac-12.
Season Outlook
Courtesy of Ethan Landa
FPI Score: 21.1
Previous: 18.8
FPI Rank: 8th
Previous: 11th
Projected Record: 10.3-2.2
Previous: 9.7-2.7
Pac-12 Title Odds: 27.6%
Previous: 19.0%
College Football Playoff Odds: 24.1%
Previous: 14.6%
National Championship Odds: 11.0%
Previous: 6.2%
Win Championship Odds: 4.9%
Previous: 2.5%
