ESPN FPI Update: Ducks jump to No. 3 in nation after win over California
The Oregon Ducks continue to win, and they continue to do it in an incredibly impressive fashion.
While Saturday’s 63-19 blowout win over the California Golden Bears certainly looked great on the scoreboard and in the box score, the reality is Oregon played nowhere near as well as it could have, committing nine penalties for 99 yards and turning the ball over twice.
It’s not easy to leave a 44-point win and feel like you have a lot of places where you can improve, but that’s the mentality for Dan Lanning and this Oregon team.
Regardless of where they need to get better, it’s clear that there are few teams in the nation playing as well as the Ducks right now. That’s shown clearly with ESPN’s Football Power Index, which now has Oregon ranked as the No. 3 team in the nation based on their metrics.
Here’s an updated look at how ESPN expects the rest of the season to play out for the Ducks:
Week 11 vs. USC Trojans
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Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 83.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 77.7%
Analysis
Can you imagine showing this win probability to an Oregon or USC fan before the season started? I’m not sure many people would have believed you. It’s been nothing but downhill for the Trojans over the past month, while the Ducks have been ascending rapidly. This will be a fun game to watch, with a lot of points being scored.
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 97.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 95.0%
Analysis
After beating Washington State last week, there might have been some concern about going down to the desert in late November to face the Sun Devils. We saw what Utah did to them this week, though, which should calm a lot of fears for Oregon fans.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
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Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 83.4%
Previous FPI Odds: 79.3%
Analysis
The Beavers earned a win over Colorado this past week, but they didn’t look all that impressive doing so, letting the Buffaloes back into the game late. It feels like there’s a big gap between Oregon and Oregon State, but in a rivalry game, anything can happen.
FPI Rankings
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FPI Score: 25.3
Previous: 23.3
FPI Rank: 3rd
Previous: 4th
Projected Record: 11.2-1.6
Previous: 11.0-1.8
Analysis
The FPI really likes what it sees in the Ducks, ranking them No. 3 in the nation behind Ohio State and Michigan.
Pac-12 Title Odds
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Pac-12 Title Odds: 58.0% (1st)
Previous: 52% (1st)
Analysis
Despite Washington remaining undefeated after a win over USC this past week, it’s the Ducks who are heavily favored to win the Pac-12 title game this year, and likely grab a spot in the College Football Playoff.
College Football Playoff Odds
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College Football Playoff Odds: 37.5% (7th)
Previous: 27.6% (8th)
Analysis
If Oregon can win out and grab a conference championship victory, they are more-likely-than-not going to grab a spot in the playoff. There’s a lot that needs to happen before we can start booking those tickets, though.
National Championship Odds
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National Championship Odds: 18.8% (5th)
Previous: 12.8% (8th)
Win Championship Odds: 9.2% (5th)
Previous: 5.8% (8th)
