Eric Rueb predicts high school football playoff seeding, and this week's picks
It’s that time of year again.
The playoffs are right around the corner and with two weeks left in the regular season – three in Division IV – it’s time to break down the playoff probabilities.
This is a labor of love and it can get lengthy, so I’m going to skip the pleasantries and get right to it. Here’s what’s on the line this week – and remember that a) this is NOT official and b) I’m a journalist so my math is sketchy at best.
DIVISION I
If Hendricken beats Central, it’s the No. 1 seed.
If Central wins, a win over North Kingstown next week would create a lot more math than I’m capable of handling right now to figure out the No. 1 seed. If Central loses, the winner of next week’s game determines the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds. Fin.
DIVISION II-A
Cumberland is No. 1.
Burrillville needs to beat St. Raphael next week to earn the No. 2 seed or beat East Providence and have St. Raphael lose to East Greenwich.
Now the fun starts.
East Providence’s best scenario to make the playoffs is win Saturday, then have St. Raphael split its final two games with East Greenwich and Burrillville with Cranston West beating Mount Pleasant and East Greenwich. That would make it the No. 3 seed (points allowed tiebreaker).
For St. Raphael, the easiest route is beat East Greenwich and beat Burrillville. They own most tiebreaker scenarios – minus head-to-head with East Providence – but a win Friday should put the Saints in the postseason.
Mount Pleasant gets in with two wins – it plays undefeated Cumberland next week – but a win over Cranston West would also do the trick. If the Kilties win Friday and end up in a three-way tiebreaker with St. Raphael and East Providence, they’d be the No. 4 seed. If they sweep the last two games, they’d be No. 3 only if St. Raphael splits its last two games.
Cranston West has to win its final two games to get to 3-3 and needs East Providence to lose Saturday. A three-way tiebreaker with EP and St. Raphael puts the Falcons out, but a four-way tiebreaker with EP, St. Raphael and Mount Pleasant could bring them back in, depending on Friday’s score.
DIVISION II-B
Barrington needs to beat either Portsmouth or Woonsocket to secure the No. 1 seed.
Westerly is officially in with one win or a Portsmouth loss. The Bulldogs can earn the No. 2 seed with a win over Woonsocket and beating South Kingstown next week.
South Kingstown is in, but needs a Westerly loss to secure the No. 2 seed. The teams meet next week. The Rebels can’t be worse than No. 3.
Portsmouth gets in with two wins or one win and a Woonsocket loss. The Patriots can only be a No. 3 or 4 seed.
Woonsocket needs two wins to get in and a Portsmouth loss. If there’s a three-way tie with Portsmouth, Woonsocket and Westerly – which is possible – the Novans would have to score at least 35 points vs. Westerly to get in.
DIVISION III-A
No disrespect to the teams left on these two teams’ schedule, but Friday’s game between Lincoln and Middletown will determine the No. 1 seed. Lincoln can’t be worse than No. 2, but Middletown could fall to No. 3 if Classical runs the table and Coventry and Tolman both lose one game the rest of the way.
Coventry, Classical and Toman are all 3-2 and Coventry has to play both teams, so there’s a lot of mathing involved here. There’s the potential that all three teams could go 3-3, and that’s when the defensive points allowed tiebreaker would come into play.
Classical gets in with two wins vs. Coventry and a win over winless Chariho.
This week almost doesn’t matter for Tolman. A win over Coventry next week should put the Tigers in.
For Coventry, it can avoid all the headaches with two wins. If the Oakers lose to Classical, it needs to be a low-scoring game and needs to beat Tolman in another low-scoring affair.
DIVISION III-B
Anything can happen, but with winless Mt. Hope left on the schedule, West Warwick will be the No. 1.
Johnston is in. They could lose their last two, but with wins over Moses Brown and Pilgrim they’d own any and all tiebreakers. If the Panthers win Thursday, they clinch the No. 2 seed. If they lose, they’d need a win next week vs. Narragansett or Pilgrim to lose to Moses Brown and have Ponaganset drop one of its last two games.
Ponaganset isn’t officially in, but a win over Mt. Hope this week would change that. Chieftains could end up as high as No. 2 – Johnston would have to lose its last two games – but the No. 3 seed seems to be the likeliest option.
Moses Brown and Pilgrim are both fighting for a spot. Ponaganset owns the tiebreaker over both, but should Ponaganset go 1-1 in the last two weeks and one of these teams go 2-0, they would earn the No. 3 seed.
The Quakers and Patriots face each other next week in Warwick, so this week’s result only matters for seeding (barring a collapse by Ponaganset). Whoever wins that matchup will be in the playoffs with the loser on the outside looking in.
DIVISION IV
There’s three games left for most of Division IV and my brain can’t handle that math.
Barring monumental upsets. Davies will be the No. 1, Exeter-West Greenwich will be No. 2 and North Providence will be No. 3.
Smithfield (3-2), Tiverton (3-2) and Juanita Sanchez (2-4) are all still in the mix.
Juanita Sanchez has to beat North Providence and Central Falls and hope Smithfield and Tiverton both lose two games.
If there is a three-way tiebreaker scenario with Smithfield, Tiverton and Juanita Sanchez, Smithfield would be in via the points allowed tiebreaker. If Smithfield and Tiverton end up tied, the Tigers own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
My head hurts. Let’s get on to the picks.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 19
Division III
Tolman vs. Toll Gate at Warwick Veterans Middle School, 6 p.m.
Life’s only guarantees are death, taxes and the Tigers playing good football in October.
THE PICK: Tigers
Pilgrim at No. 13 Johnston, 7 p.m.
If the Patriots and Panthers play on a Sunday, I’m turning the TV off. Not the case with the RI high school football version. This game is HUGE.
THE PICK: Panthers
Division IV
Tiverton vs. Davies at Pierce Field, 6 p.m.
I still can’t believe the Tigers could be a playoff team this year. The defense has played well this fall and if they can somehow pull this one off, it would be a crowning achievement for coach Dillon Sheridan.
THE PICK: Patriots
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 20
Division I
No. 6 Central at No. 1 Hendricken, 7 p.m.
This is the biggest trap game of all time for the Hawks, but Keith Croft generally doesn’t let his team fall for traps. That said, expect this to be close – the Knights are going to be hungry for a dub.
THE PICK: Hawks
Division II
Cranston West vs. No. 16 Mount Pleasant at Conley Stadium, 6 p.m.
The Kilties are 0-2 on grass. The Kilties are 2-0 on turf. Conley Stadium has turf. Decision made.
THE PICK: Kilties
Portsmouth at No. 5 Barrington, 6:15 p.m.
Nobody in the East Bay is going to like this, but the Hail Mary catch NK came up with that beat the Eagles last week looked like the right call. Dual possession in the air, dual possession on the ground means an offensive catch. Perhaps the loss will give the Eagles a chip on their shoulder, which is bad news for the rest of D-II.
THE PICK: Eagles
No. 14 St. Raphael at East Greenwich, 7 p.m.
I was at my kid’s soccer game last Saturday trying to take photos and got hammered with DMs about the Saints’ score being accurate. Then I watched the video. Looks like the defending champs have woken up.
THE PICK: Saints
No. 17 Woonsocket at No. 9 Westerly, 7 p.m.
Which offense is going to win this game? Neither team has done much damage outside of picking on the division’s bottom two teams. So who shows up in this one?
THE PICK: Bulldogs
Shea vs. Cranston East at Cranston Stadium, 7 p.m.
As far as the playoffs are concerned, this game between winless teams doesn’t matter. As far as these kids are concerned, this is their Super Bowl. This is what makes high school sports great.
THE PICK: Thunderbolts
Division III
Chariho at North Smithfield, 5:30 p.m.
I expect both these teams to be playing for Super Bowls in 2025 – although not in the same division, provided the RIIL doesn’t screw up the realignment.
THE PICK: Northmen
Providence Journal Game of the Night
No. 12 Middletown at No. 7 Lincoln, 6 p.m.
Not much on the line here – just the No. 1 seed from Division III-A. Old school football at its finest.
THE PICK: Lions
No. 11 West Warwick at No. 15 Moses Brown, 6:30 p.m.
The school is renting lights for this one and while it sounds shocking that the school hasn’t been able to fundraise to put permanent ones in, with who lives in the neighborhood it shouldn’t be a surprise why they can’t have them.
THE PICK: Wizards
Mt. Hope at No. 19 Ponaganset, 6:30 p.m.
I’m really excited for the next group of parents in Foster/Glocester that want the Chieftains to throw the ball more. That’s not how you win games in western Rhode Island. Not with the linemen the community constantly produces.
THE PICK: Chieftains
Narragansett vs. Rogers at Toppa Field, 7 p.m.
Next fall can someone remind me to go catch a game at Toppa Field? It’s truly an RI football landmark and I need to get out there on a Friday night to add it to my list. Can’t remember the last time the Journal went there.
THE PICK: Vikings
Division IV
Exeter-West Greenwich vs. Smithfield at Bryant University, 7 p.m.
I interviewed my brother-in-law’s nephew after he had a big game last week and that was the most Rhode Island thing that happened to me until I interviewed an EP volleyball player whose grandmother was my second grade teacher. Love this state.
THE PICK: Scarlet Knights
Non-League
No. 3 North Kingstown at No. 4 Cumberland, 7 p.m.
The Skippers last two non-league games were against teams that were as close as possible to mimicking the offense they’ll see in the postseason. If NK can’t stop Cumberland, it’s not a good sign if it has to play Hendricken.
THE PICK: Clippers
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 21
Division II
No. 18 East Providence at No. 8 Burrillville, 12 p.m.
I watched my youngest play soccer last week and she’s going to have to be OK with the fact that dad needs to be in Burrillville on Saturday for this one (but I’ll get to see my oldest play in the morning so I’m not a horrible dad).
THE PICK: Townies
Division III
No. 20 Coventry at Classical, 3 p.m.
Who needs to see your family on a Saturday when you can do a high school football doubleheader with games with SIGNIFICANT playoff implications? NOT ME.
THE PICK: Purple
Division IV
Scituate at Hope, 12 p.m.
If the Spartans and Blue Wave co-opted, they’d win the D-IV Super Bowl. There, I said it.
THE PICK: Spartans
Juanita Sanchez at North Providence, 5 p.m.
I will only attend this game if A) North Providence can guarantee me a primo parking spot, because I’ll be rolling in late after the 3 p.m. game; and B) if my wife promises not to divorce me for spending the last Saturday before No Days Off SZN watching high school football.
THE PICK: Cougars
Non-league
No. 2 La Salle vs. No. 10 South Kingstown at Curtis Corner, 12 p.m.
Results don’t matter here and while the Rams will get some valuable competitive reps, this game should do wonders for the Rebels because they won’t face a better team this season.
THE PICK: Rams
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Eric Rueb's high school football playoff predictions and weekly picks
