Emptying the Notebook: Was the Air Force loss really as bad as it seemed? Pretty much. Here's why.
Feb. 25—Here are some extra notes, quotes, stats, trends, videos and other odds & ends I managed to empty out of the old reporter's notebook after Saturday's 78-77 Air Force win over the Lobos in the Pit:
There are bad losses, then there's this ...
I get it if you want to look away already. For those of you diving into this edition of ETN, I'm grateful.
But Saturday's loss by the Lobos to the visiting Air Force Falcons wasn't just bad. It was historically bad in terms of the gap between where the two teams were ranked, the history between the programs (including UNM having just beaten Air Force a month ago in the Falcons' gym by 19 points) but also in terms of the frail post-season résumé UNM has going for it as it looks to break a 10-year NCAA Tournament drought.
Said national college basketball analyst Jeff Goodman on The Field of 68's Saturday night college basketball recap show when he was asked about the worst loss of the day:
"To me, there's only one candidate for this. And I know you think I'm crazy, because there were a lot of (NCAA Tournament) bubble teams that lost, but only one bubble team lost to a team ranked 277 in the NET and that was New Mexico, and they lost at home in the Pit. That is by far the worst loss. ... And they've got a tough schedule coming up."
So, forget how bad it was in context of Saturday's slate of college basketball games. Let's try to find some context, not just some prisoner of the moment, emotional reaction.
How bad was that loss on Saturday?
Well, UNM entered the game ranked No. 20 in the NET and Air Force was 273, a differential of 253 spots.
But the NET hasn't been around very long, so let's dig a little deeper.
Saturday was the second biggest differential in KenPom.com rankings of any UNM Lobo loss in the 25-year Mountain West era. The worst loss was when Rice, a team ranked 284 in KenPom, beat Craig Neal's No. 44 UNM Lobos 90-89 in the Pit on Dec. 19, 2015 — marking a 240-spot difference in national rankings between the two teams. Some may remember that game for Tim Williams calling a timeout the Lobos didn't have, leading to a game-winning technical for the visiting Owls.
That was brutal.
And Saturday was close.
10 biggest KenPom gaps between teams in Lobo loss in MW era:
Team's KenPom.com rankings entering the game
—240 — Dec. 19, 2015 (Rice 284, UNM 44)
—236 — Saturday (Air Force 262, UNM 26)
—216 — Jan. 1, 2020 (San Jose State 304, UNM 88)
—206 — Dec. 23, 2014 (Grand Canyon 284, UNM 78)
—168 — Feb. 26, 2019 (San Jose State 342, UNM 174)
—160 — Feb. 20, 2022 (San Jose State 298, UNM 138)
—152 — Feb. 20, 2016 (Air Force 259, UNM 107)
—146 — Feb. 14, 2015 (Nevada 247, UNM 101)
—146 — Feb. 4, 2015 (Air Force 234, UNM 88)
—145 — Feb. 25, 2012 (TCU 156, UNM 11)
10 worst rated KenPom teams to beat UNM in MW era:
Team's KenPom.com ranking entering the game
—342 San Jose State (Feb. 26, 2019)
—331 Air Force (Feb. 24, 2021)
—330 San Jose State (Jan. 23, 2021)
—316 Wyoming (March 9, 2019)
—304 San Jose State (Jan. 1, 2020)
—298 San Jose State (Feb. 20, 2022)
—284 Rice (Dec. 19, 2015)
—284 Grand Canyon (Dec. 23, 2014)
—*265 Southern Utah (Dec. 21, 2022)
—262 Air Force (Saturday)
*Final KenPom ranking of 2003. Game day ranking not available.
And there are also some notes in the series that show how unlikely, if nothing else, Saturday's loss was, even beyond the 18.5-point Vegas betting line.
Air Force had lost 38 of the first 40 games the two teams played in the Pit. UNM now holds a 38-3 series record in the Pit.
The last time Air Force won in the Pit was when Jeff Bzdelik's 26-win Falcons beat Ritchie McKay's Lobos 60-51 on Feb. 10, 2007. But that was a 26-win Falcons team that finished third in a nine-team Mountain West. Saturday was a team that had eight wins and was in last place in the 11-team league standings.
"Disappointing one. We know it was a missed opportunity and we're gonna have to find a way to rebound from it," UNM coach Richard Pitino said.
UNM's NCAA Tournament hopes are still far from over, but the wiggle room is gone. And if they don't want to be sweating things out on Selection Sunday in a few weeks, they'd better get some wins under their belt beyond the March 6 Senior Night in the Pit against Fresno State.
How it ended ...
Here's how it ended, in case you haven't seen it — from the JT Toppin blown defensive assignment setting up a wide-open Rytis Petraitis 3 to the weird stoppage of play from a game official after that made basket preventing UNM from immediately inbounding to Dent to the Lobos failed final second shot by Tru Washington:
The gamer ...
Here is the gamer I filed from the Pit media room after Saturday's game ...
Mashburn's milestone ...
There wasn't much to celebrate for the Lobos on Saturday, but one game, one loss shouldn't mean we ignore a rather major milestone achieved by UNM senior guard Jamal Mashburn Jr.
With 16 points scored, Mashburn now has 1,543 points scored in just under three seasons in a UNM Lobo uniform.
That puts him in the Top 10 all-time in program history, passing two legends on Saturday in Hall of Famer Mel Daniels (1,537 points; 1965-67) and Willie Long 1,542 points; 1969-71).
UNM career scoring leaders:
1. Charles Smith — 1,993 (1994-97)
2. Kenny Thomas — 1,931 (1996-99)
3. Lamont Long — 1,840 (1997-2000)
4. Clayton Shields — 1,837 (1995-98)
5. Kendall Williams — 1,813 (2011-14)
6. Ruben Douglas — 1,782 (2001-03)
7. Luc Longley — 1,769 (1988-91)
8. Hunter Greene — 1,745 (1984-88)
9. Rob Robbins — 1,739 (1988-91)
10. Jamal Mashburn Jr. — 1,543 (2022-present)
11. *Willie Long — 1,542 (1969-71)
12. *Mel Daniels — 1,537 (1965-67)
*Passed by Mashburn on Saturday.
Where's House?
Jaelen House played under 20 minutes on Saturday for just the third time in 51 games against Mountain West teams as a Lobo (regular season and MW Tournament games included).
—19:33 — Air Force 78, New Mexico 77 (Saturday in the Pit)
—18:31 — Colorado State 76, New Mexico 68 (Jan. 2 in Fort Collins)
—19:14 — San Diego State 72, New Mexico 47 (Jan. 31, 2022, in San Diego)
Asked why House going to the bench with 17:08 left in the game was the last we saw of the dynamic senior on Saturday, UNM coach Richard Pitino said: "Just foul trouble. And then he had been out a while and I just loved Tru's energy more than anything," referring to freshman Tru Washington.
Of course, House also played zero minutes (as in he was injured) a year ago against both Air Force and Wyoming, the bottom two teams in the Mountain West standings and the Lobos lost back-to-back games to them.
The highs and the lows of the House experience are what they are. While we can debate the best player on the Lobos roster, it's clear House remains the Most Valuable and will stay that way until his teammates can find ways to win without him.
When he was in, he did thinks like this ...
And this ...
February blues ...
Well, for the Lobos, it's a good thing February is the shortest month.
Saturday's loss means the Lobos went 3-3 in February this season, and that means the program has had only one winning February in the past 10 years (in 2018 the Lobos went 5-2).
The past decade of February games has resulted in a dismal 25-46 (0.352) record for the Lobos. That stretch is highlighted (or lowlighted) by the team's 0-for-8 showing in 2015 when it entered the month with a 14-7 record.
Two of Richard Pitino's February's have been .500 months, at least, which account for the second and third best months of the decade.
UNM's record by month in 25-year Mountain West era:
—NOVEMBER: 104-34 (0.754)
—DECEMBER: 128-53 (0.707)
—JANUARY: 106-96 (0.525)
—FEBRUARY: 93-85 (0.522)
—*MARCH: 51-48 (0.515)
*At least three regular season games and one MW Tournament game yet to be played this season in March.
Here is a look at how February has treated each Lobos coach in the Mountain West era (started in 1999-2000):
Richard Pitino era
—2024: 3-3 (Entered February 18-4)
—2023: 2-6 (Entered February 19-3)
—2022: 4-4
—TOTAL: 9-13 (.409)
Paul Weir era
—2021: 1-3
—2020: 2-6 (Entered February 16-7)
—2019: 2-5
—2018: 5-2
—TOTAL: 10-16 (.385)
Craig Neal era
—2017: 3-4
—2016: 3-5
—2015: 0-8 (Entered February 14-7)
—2014: 6-1
—TOTAL: 12-18 (.400)
Steve Alford era
—2013: 6-1
—2012: 5-2
—2011: 3-4 (Entered February 15-7)
—2010: 7-0
—2009: 6-1
—2008: 6-2
—TOTAL: 33-10 (.767)
Ritchie McKay era
—2007: 2-5
—2006: 4-3
—2005: 6-1
—2004: 3-4
—2003: 2-5
—TOTAL: 17-18 (.486)
Fran Fraschilla era
—2002: 3-5
—2001: 4-4
—2000: 5-1
—TOTAL: 12-10 (.545)
UNM's total February record since 2000: 93-85 (0.522)
Hey, these two showed some fight ...
Two of the most famous athletes in women's combat sports were on hand for Saturday's game in the Pit.
Cris Cyborg and Holly Holm, who are training together in Albuquerque ahead of Holly's big upcoming UFC fight, took in the Air Force upset of the Lobos.
A number to know: 3
The Lobos posted a season-low three steals in Saturday's loss. It had been a year and two days since UNM — the league-leaders in steals — had a game with fewer (two steals in a loss at Boise State on Feb. 22, 2023).
Fewer than seven steals for the Lobos this season:
—3 — L, Air Force 78, UNM 77 (Saturday in the Pit)
—4 — L, Boise State 86, UNM 78 (Jan. 31 in the Pit)
—4 — W, UNM 82, UT-Arlington 80 (Nov. 16 in the Pit)
—5 — L, UNLV 83, UNM 73 (Jan. 9 at UNLV)
—6 — L, UNLV 80, UNM 77 (Feb. 10 in the Pit)
Lobos with seven or more steals: 20-3
Lobos with fewer than seven steals: 1-4
Few steals = few points off turnovers ...
UNM lost the points off turnovers stat, 8-7, to Air Force on Saturday.
As regular readers of ETN know, points off turnovers is a stat I have often referred to as maybe the most telling statistic of Lobos' success. They lost the stat by one point on Saturday and lost the game by one point, but it's more than being about that specific one-point difference. It's consistently been a pretty good indication (not every game, but almost) that when the Lobos aren't generating points off turnovers, they simply aren't the same team. Their defense is lacking, and often their energy or focus (hard to tell from the sidelines sometimes) is lacking, too.
UNM's Mountain West record:
—7-2 — Lobos win points off turnover stat
—1-4 — Lobos lose points off turnover stat
—1-0 — Lobos tie points off turnover stat
—
—9-6 — Lobos Mountain West record
UNM's points off turnover differential:
—+9.6 pts/game in wins — 162-76 (18.0-8.4 per game)
---2.9 pts/game in losses — 71-88 (11.8-14.7 per game)
To be fair ...
It wasn't as though the Lobos weren't turning defense into offense on Saturday. They were able to get out and run on some blocks a couple times, but I stand by my take that when the team's steals and points off turnover numbers aren't on the plus-side, it's often a sign they aren't playing their best game.
But, we did see this highlight reel play that started with a JT Toppin block gathered by Donovan Dent who ran the fast break and fed Nelly Junior Joseph in the lane for the dunk ...
And there was this, a Donovan Dent one-man defense-to-offense highlight with a block, fast break dunk and he drew the foul ...
Dying by the 3 ...
Air Force outscored UNM 33-9 at the 3-point line on Saturday (11 made 3-pointers to three).
NM did outscore Air Force 48-38 in the paint, but even this NMSU Aggie can see that this was another case of 3s being more than 2s and in the modern game of basketball, it's really, really hard to beat a team that more than triples you up on 3-pointers. You lose all other margins for error (like going just 18-of-27 at the free throw line).
If you saw my game-day box that published in Saturday's Albuquerque Journal print edition (and was posted online Friday night and is still there) you surely noticed that I wrote this, knowing that the 3-point shot would be a big part of the game:
"UNM's defense hasn't allowed a team to hit double-digit 3-pointers in seven games or in 12 of 14 Mountain West games. However, Air Force leads the league in 3-pointers made per game (8.84 per game), has hit at least 10 in a league game seven times and is taking 27.4 of them a game since the last time they saw UNM."
Of course, you will also notice my preview story stated UNM was insistent that it wasn't going to overlook Air Force on Saturday — not with what happened last year! That didn't exactly hold true as the Lobos were anything but ready for what happened to them in the Pit in this one.
As for the 3-pointers, though, Air Force hitting eight of them in the second half and 11 in the game hasn't happened often for the Lobos, but UNM is playing with fire thinking it won't again if a team gets hot and they don't answer with hitting a few more from oustide the arc themselves. Sure, the Lobos' defense is vastly improved from last season, but if they are a team that isn't going to ever consistently hit 3-pointers of their own, this sort of thing — getting outscored 33-9 at the 3-point line — is always a possibility.
Let's take a look at some of the more lopsided 3-point scoring differentials for the Lobos against Mountain West teams in the Richard Pitino era.
MW teams outscoring UNM by at least 15 on 3s:
Point differential on 3s on left, number of 3s made on right
2023-24 season
---24 points — Air Force 11, UNM 3
> AFA 78, UNM 77 (Saturday)
---24 points — UNLV 10, UNM 2
> UNLV 83, UNM 73 (Jan. 9, 2024)
2022-23 season
---30 points — Utah State 12, UNM 2
> Utah State 91, UNM 76 (March 9, 2023 — MW Tournament)
---21 points — Nevada 11, UNM 4
> Nevada 77, UNM 76 (Feb. 7, 2023)
---18 points — Wyoming 10, UNM 4
> UNM 87, Wyoming 76 (March 8, 2023 — MW Tournament)
---18 points — Wyoming 11, UNM 5
> Wyoming 70, New Mexico 56 (Feb. 14, 2023)
---15 points — Colorado State 11, UNM 6
> CSU 92, UNM 84 (March 3, 2023)
2021-22 season
It did not happen
Plenty of familiar faces ...
Lobo hoops alumni were recognized on the court during halftime on Saturday. Here's a look at some of the alumni that showed up ...
It'll have to wait ...
The Lobos remain a win away from ending two unfavorable streaks — a win many assumed would have come against the Falcons.
—With a win, the Lobos would have reached 22 victories in a season for the first time since the 2013-14 season. (streak remains at nine seasons)
—With a win, the Lobos would have clinched their first winning record in Mountain West play since the 2017-18 season. (streak remains at five seasons)
—With a win, the Lobos, as mentioned in the February note above, would have had their first winning month of February since 2018 (streak remains five seasons)
Attendance ...
The announced attendance for Saturday's Air Force at UNM game in the Pit: 15,011
Sellout tracker ...
No sellouts around the Mountain West on Saturday (or in Friday night's game), but there was one earlier in the week in Logan where Utah State sold out the Spectrum for its game vs. San Diego State.
That gives the Mountain West another sellout for the season, pulling the league up to 19.
7 — San Diego State
3 — Boise State
3 — Colorado State
3 — Utah State
2 — New Mexico
1 — Nevada
Some of you may remember I started tracking the league's sellouts this season in early January when I realized there was a good chance the league was going to have several venues with a good shot at sellouts, even setting what I called at the time a "fairly ambitious" over/under for Mountain West sell outs at 17.5.
Well, the over hit with two weeks of games remaining.
And that's the league leader in average home attendance, UNM, having just two sellouts during league play (they remain very happy with the Mountain West's TV partners for being the ONLY team in the league that didn't have a single weeknight (school night/work night) game with a start time scheduled before 8 p.m. with multiple being 8:30 p.m. or 9 p.m. starts.
Still, UNM easily leads the Mountain West in average attendance, though San Diego State fans would tell you that is because their arena is just too small. That might be fair, but so too is pointing out UNM hasn't had a league home game that wouldn't have been a sellout in Viejas Arena. They're sellouts in the arena teams play in. Nothing more, nothing less.
But it's all been a good sign for the league.
A first in the Pit?
While I can't say I was able to fully verify this, and UNM wasn't 100 percent certain, I can tell you this: Nobody I talked with at UNM or on press row on Saturday seems to recall a female referee having ever called a men's basketball game in the Pit.
Until Saturday.
Janetta Graham, who primarily calls WNBA games but has officiated six men's games this season including the Lobos' Jan. 24 win at San Jose State, was on Saturday's officiating crew in the Pit along with Tommy Johnson and Glen Mayberry.
And, I suppose you can say there was one victory for her in this regard: No fan in the Pit seemed to treat her any worse for being a female than they treat any other referee for being a referee. She got plenty of boos, jeers and shouts just like her two male counterparts.
Plus/minus ...
Here are the plus/minus numbers for Saturday's game with minutes in parenthesis:
NEW MEXICO
+9 Jamal Mashburn Jr. (37:34)
+6 Jaelen House (19:33)
+4 Nelly Junior Joseph (30:32)
+1 Tru Washington (17:59)
0 JT Toppin (29:09)
-1 Donovan Dent (35:59)
-9 Mustapha Amzil (20:22)
-15 Jemarl Baker Jr. (8:52)
AIR FORCE
+5 Byron Brown (35:36)
+3 Luke Kearney (20:04)
+3 Rytis Petraitis (21:28)
+1 Ethan Taylor (40:00)
+1 Beau Becker (30:34)
0 Wesley Celichowski (9:26)
-4 Kellan Boylan (38:28)
-4 Jeffrey Mills (4:24)
Line 'em up ...
The UNM Lobos played eight players and used 12 unique lineup combinations. The Air Force Falcons played eight players and used five unique lineup combinations. (NOTE: That five lineup combination number for Air Force is by far the lowest I've ever seen since tracking these, including for previous Air Force games.)
Here's a look at how some of UNM's lineup combinations worked on Saturday, starting with the starters ...
STARTING AND BEST LINEUP
—WHO: Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, Jamal Mashburn Jr., JT Toppin, Nelly Junior Joseph
—POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +7 (20-13)
—TIME ON COURT: 9:06
—NOTE: Coaches get the big bucks for a reason. Figuring out how to get the starting five on the floor together more than nine minutes a game seems to be what should be a rather high priority for Richard Pitino as the starters have routinely (not every game, but most) been outscoring opponents all season (including the opposing starting five).
Now, the Lobo starters sure could help their coach out by not committing silly fouls in bad moments so regularly, but it also seems like maybe the starting five's chemistry together is so good it needs more like 15-18 minutes a game as opposed to less than a quarter of the game.
Saturday, Jaelen House not playing the last 17 minutes, 2 seconds was a big part of that, and Pitino said he liked what he was getting from Tru Washington so he stuck with him. I don't get it with House's big-play potential, but I also saw House so mad about being pulled out out foul No. 4 he kicked the bench and that was after what I believe was his pleading with his coach to stay in after foul No. 3 just 15 seconds prior.
So, I'll wrap up the blurb with this: The players and coaches BOTH need to figure out how to ride the starting five more than nine minutes a game.
(2ND) BEST LINEUP
—WHO: Donovan Dent, Jamal Mashburn Jr., Tru Washington, Mustapha Amzil, Nelly Junior Joseph
—POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +5 (8-3)
—TIME ON COURT: 2:26
—NOTE: Tru Washington, despite his shooting line (1-of-8), and Mustapha Amzil both had really good stretches of play for the Lobos on Saturday. This short stint with both of them on the floor with three of the starters produced the quickest impact of scoring, averaging out to a game-best 3.2877 points per minute played together.
You don't see this combination often, but it was a good one on Saturday.
WORST LINEUP
—WHO: Donovan Dent, Jamal Mashburn Jr., Jemarl Baker Jr., Mustapha Amzil, Nelly Junior Joseph
—POINT DIFFERENTIAL: -5 (1-6)
—TIME ON COURT: 2:00
—NOTE: This grouping couldn't manage a single bucket in two minutes of play (it did have a free throw).
The time on the court wasn't significant enough to delve into much more than that, and there was another -5 grouping (0-5 in just 1:06).
VIDEO: Pitino and Baker postgame ...
Here's the postgame media availability with Richard Pitino and Jemarl Baker Jr. after the Lobos' loss at Air Force.
Meanwhile, in Las Vegas ...
Rough week back in the rankings for the Colorado State Rams, who went 0-2 with that No. 22 in front of their name this week, losing on Saturday on the road at UNLV, 66-60.
Around the Mountain ...
Here are the scores from the five weekend games and the schedule for the upcoming midweek games...
FRIDAY
—Nevada 84, San Jose State 63
SATURDAY
—Air Force 78, New Mexico 77
—Boise State 92, Wyoming 72
—UNLV 66, No. 22 Colorado State 60
—No. 19 San Diego State 73, Fresno State 41
TUESDAY
—UNLV at Wyoming, 7 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network)
—Boise State at Air Force, 7 p.m. (TheMW)
—Utah State at Fresno State, 7 p.m. PT/8 p.m. MT (TheMW)
—Nevada at Colorado State, 8:30 p.m. (FS1)
—San Jose State at No. 19 San Diego State, 8 p.m. PT/9 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network)
Mountain West standings ...
Mountain West standings through Saturday's games ...
10-4 Utah State
10-4 Boise State
10-5 San Diego State
9-5 Nevada
9-5 UNLV
9-6 New Mexico
8-7 Colorado State
6-8 Wyoming
4-10 Fresno State
2-12 Air Force
2-13 San Jose State
Just so we're clear ...
UNLV: 3 wins vs. ranked opponents this season.
UNM: 3 wins vs. ranked opponents this season.
-also true-
UNLV: Lost to Air Force at home.
UNM: Lost to Air Force at home.
Meanwhile, in Laramie ...
The UNM women did their part Saturday, beating Wyoming in Laramie 59-58.
Here is colleague Ken Sickenger's writeup of the Lobos big late season road win:
Stats and stats ...
Here is the postgame stat sheet I posted late Sunday night: Air Force 78, New Mexico 77
And if you prefer the digital version, here you go: Air Force 78, New Mexico 77
Grammer's Guesses ...
The Guesses go 1-3 on the day and I'm now just 37-42 on the season.
My daughter's coin flip picks went 2-2 and and she's now 36-43 on the season.
So, much like the Mountain West standings, she and I are in a dog fight.
Up next ..
For New Mexico: The Lobos next play at Boise State at 6 p.m. Saturday (March 2). The game will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network.
For Air Force: The Falcons host Boise State at 7 p.m. Tuesday. The game will be streamed on TheMW.com.
Lobo schedule/results ...
Pics from the game ...
