Edward Thoma: Thoma column | Twins' pitching plans will need to go deep
Oct. 30—The 2023 Twins had a remarkably stable starting rotation — remarkable in the current era, at least.
Nine pitchers started games for Minnesota, two of them one start apiece as openers (Jose DeLeon and Emilio Pagán, the latter in the season's final weekend). Five men made at least 20 starts, another 10. Eleven starts were divvied up between a pair of veterans who were in the rotation for a fraction of the season.
We should not count on the same stability in 2024. To pitch in the majors is to damage one's arm. That has always been true, and it is even more so in this era of ever-higher velocity. Rotation depth is a necessity.
Minnesota enters the offseason with four rotation spots penciled in — Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack. Coming off the roster as free agents are Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Dallas Keuchel and Tyler Mahle.
That leaves a slot open, and it is a safe assumption that the Twins do not intend to count on an unestablished arm for that. They will want someone with a track record and leave the likes of Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson for depth purposes.
Assuming that Gray is eligible for a qualifying offer — only one per career — I would expect the Twins to make that offer. If he accepts it, great, that fills the rotation.
More likely the 2023 All-Star will pursue a multi-year deal. Those waters may be deeper than the Twins want to wade into, but there may be a sweet spot acceptable to both sides. Working in Gray's favor: This is not seen as a rich crop of free agent starters.
If Gray goes elsewhere, then what for the Twins? Re-upping Maeda is an acceptable alternative, even if he's older than Gray. Home runs dented his 2023 stats, but the walk and strikeout rates were solid. Indeed, the more I look at Maeda's 2023, the more I like him for 2024.
I would be considerably less enthused about a return engagement for Keuchel. The southpaw had some good starts, but they came against weak lineups. The Twins signed him to a minor-league deal for depth, and that's what they got — and if Keuchel wants to continue to pitch (and he probably does), minor league deals are his future. Don't waste a 40-man roster spot on him.
Mahle might be a target for the kind of multi-year deal the Twins have made in the past with Michael Pineda and Paddack, a year to rehab from surgery and a year (or more) to pitch. It worked well with Pineda, and the Twins have high hopes for Paddack. But Mahle should be viewed strictly as a 2025 option.
As for Varland: The sharp uptick in velocity when he was shifted to the bullpen makes a permanent conversion to a late-inning relief role a serious temptation. But he is pretty clearly the best Plan B starter in the system, and he should remain a rotation option.
Edward Thoma is at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com and at @bboutsider.
