An early look at Sweet 16: UNC vs UCLA, Michigan vs Villanova
March Madness is in full swing and Scott Pianowski gets you set for the next round. Which teams are we backing in the Sweet 16? Scott picks three games including blue-bloods UCLA vs UNC battling Philadelphia. Can Providence keep proving the doubters wrong against Kansas?
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Video Transcript
- Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is Monday, March 21, 2022, and I'm your betting guide, Scott Pianowski. We're talking March Madness. We're talking hoops. The Sweet 16 is upon us, and I have three games that I've already circled for my Thursday and Friday slate. Let's get you in on the early numbers, see if we can give you some winners. There's been plenty of madness so far. We've given you some hits. We've given you some misses. We did tell you to fade Tennessee, which turned out to be a good fade. Thank you, Rick Barnes.
Two teams that we liked for future bets, one of them was Villanova, who's looked very good through two games. And one of them was Kentucky, who was knocked out of the tournament in probably the signature moment. They were knocked out by St. Peter's in their first game. And of course one shining moment we'll remember, that we did tell you to bet the over in the Bryant-Wright State playing games. So when they talk about great handicapping moments in 2022, I hope you remember that glorious over. It was never in doubt. Thank you, Bryant. Thank you, Wright State.
Let's move onward. You need some opinions. You need some winners. Let's look at this Michigan-Villanova game on Thursday. The Wildcats are 4 and 1/2 point favorites over at BetMGM. The early total is 135.5. Michigan's looking for their third straight win. They only have one three game winning streak all year. We talked earlier, before the tournament, about some of these underachieving teams-- could they find their stride in the tournament. I think this is a game we can lean over the total, the 135.5. I'm going to lean over.
Now, we know both teams play at a deliberate pace, but they also play very highly efficient offense. And with Michigan in better form of late, I think this is going to be a game scoring in the 70s. Again, it's not a matter of-- they're not going to be racing up and down. You're not going to see a lot of fast break points. But I think the scoring will be efficient enough to get over that number. If I had to have an opinion on the line, I would probably lean Villanova. But I feel better about the total, chasing over that 135.5. Again, let's bet on the efficiency there, and that's my play on Thursday.
Friday, I have screwed up. I'm Providence guy, and I may be in an airplane when they're playing Kansas. So if anybody at Delta Airlines can hook me up with a video screen, that would be much appreciated. The early line is 7 and 1/2. Kansas is favored over at BetMGM. The total is 141.5. Now look, my heart's on Providence. I'm going to try to fish out an 8. I'm probably going to take the Friars. But I'll admit that's more of a heart pick than a head pick.
Something I would actually advise you to bet on is the total-- 141.5. I think this game skews under. Providence, they like to play ugly. Ed Cooley makes no bones about it. They're not the prettiest team, but they can be a very good defensive team. I think Justin Minaya probably was the best defensive player in the Big East. He didn't win that award, but he was certainly one of the finalists. And Providence doesn't want to run with Kansas. They want deliberate possessions. And we saw the Friars shoot the lights out in their second win over Richmond. They're not going to duplicate that shooting performance from 3-point land, so I look for a deliberate game.
I think anybody who even gets to 70 points probably wins, but I feel very comfortable going under 141.5 on Friday between the Friars and the Jayhawks. Now UNC, UCLA-- couple of blue bloods matching up also on Friday. The Bruins are 2 point favorites. 142.5 is the early total at BetMGM. If we could imagine this match-up a few weeks ago, you would have thought maybe UCLA 5, 6, 7 point favorite, but UNC has found their stride. They had that glorious win at Cameron Indoor Stadium in the final Coach K game there. And then, of course, pulled off a couple of nice wins to get to the Sweet 16. But I think there's a chance to sell high on UNC.
Everybody knows the first place you go for analytical research in college basketball's KenPom.com. They have UCLA as a 67% chance to win this game. I think it's a great chance to sell high on UNC. I think they can be a public team at times. I think this line has overreacted to their recent play. The Bruins have a deeper roster. They certainly are more experienced. Remember the run they made last year from the First Four to the Final Four. You don't see that happen very often. But I feel better about-- just UCLA is a little bit more battle tested. I think UNC is getting too much line credit for recent performance.
Give you a recap. Going to start my week by going over with Michigan and Villanova. And if I can get a good enough Villanova line, maybe I'll play the Wildcats as well. I like Providence and Kansas to be a rock fight that goes under 141.5. And I'll admit my heart is invested if I can get the Friars plus 8. And also on Friday, I'm going to give you UCLA minus 2 over North Carolina. A good chance to sell high on UNC. Maybe buy low on the Bruins. Also, if you prefer the moneyline in that game, I wouldn't mind going moneyline with the Bruins. Maybe parlay them with something else.
Do you like these picks? Don't like them? We can get social over Twitter. @Scott_Pianowski is how you catch me there. And you can follow all of our content at @YahooSportsbook. And if you're not in the game yet over at BetMGM, it's a great time to get involved. You can bet $10 on any game. As a new user, you will get $200 in free bets added to your account. You don't have to win that bet to receive the promotion. Go BetMGM.com/YahooVIP to get started.
This is for new BetMGM customers only, and you must be 21 or older in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Wyoming only. Terms do apply, and we do ask that you please gamble responsibly. Tomorrow, Minty Bets will be back with more opinions, more slants, more winners. Coming to you from Vegas. Until then, good night, good morning, good handicapping.
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