Duke football vs. NC State: Scouting report, prediction for Blue Devils-Wolfpack

Duke football hosts neighborhood rival NC State this weekend for just the third time in the last 10 years.

The 17th-ranked Blue Devils (4-1, 1-0 ACC) welcome the Wolfpack (4-2, 1-1) to Wallace Wade Stadium for an 8 p.m. kickoff on ACC Network.

Duke had a week off after its loss to Notre Dame and NC State won a 48-41 shootout against Marshall last week in Raleigh. The Blue Devils have a 41-37-5 edge in the all-time series, but the Wolfpack has eight of the last 10 meetings.

Here’s a look at some things to watch and a score prediction for Duke’s game against NC State in prime time.

Will it be Riley Leonard or Henry Belin IV at quarterback for Duke?

Duke coach Mike Elko on Monday said starting quarterback Riley Leonard is “day-to-day” as Leonard continues to recover from an ankle injury suffered against Notre Dame.

As a projected first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and the engine that makes Duke’s offense go, Leonard has been a major key to the program’s rise. If Leonard can’t play, redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV will get the nod. Belin was productive in the Blue Devils' 42-7 win against FCS foe Lafayette. He accounted for two touchdowns, including a rushing score, and completed 8-of-8 passes for 118 yards. Either way, Duke’s offense will face a stout NC State defense.

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Payton Wilson, NC State’s run defense a tough test for Duke

Duke is averaging the second-most rushing yards (199.4) in the ACC and leads the league with 16 rushing TDs. Running back Jordan Waters is tied for second among ACC rushers with eight TDs, but NC State’s defense has proved to be elite at stopping the run. Led by linebacker Payton Wilson, the Wolfpack is 16th in the nation in rushing defense, limiting opponents to 97 rushing yards per game.

NC State’s turnover problems can’t continue against Blue Devils

Duke is tied for 16th in the country with five turnovers through five games. NC State is tied for 88th with 10 turnovers through six games, including seven in the last two games against Louisville and Marshall. Those numbers won’t get it done for the Wolfpack against the Blue Devils, who have won the turnover battle in 12-of-18 games under Elko. Duke is 10-2 in those situations.

Duke vs. NC State score prediction

Duke 24, NC State 19: Even if Riley Leonard is sidelined, the Blue Devils have proved their mettle with solid showings in previous prime-time matchups. NC State’s defense remains tough, but turnovers have plagued the Pack.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on X/Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Duke football vs. NC State: Scouting report, prediction