Drafting a running back early? Not so fast. Here are the best fantasy football draft strategies.
As you study for your fantasy football draft this summer, (you ARE studying, right?), it’s prudent to have a plan of attack. Let’s take a look at a popular strategy for your upcoming selection festivities.
Zero RB draft
The “Zero RB” philosophy is to wait until the fifth or sixth rounds to draft a running back, loading up on premium wide receivers, tight ends and even a stud quarterback instead. In the later rounds, running backs with high upside are drafted. This is a sound approach because times have changed.
Not your father’s fantasy football
Gone are the days of sure-fire running backs like Barry Sanders, Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Eric Dickerson, Marcus Allen, Marshall Faulk and Thurman Thomas. Owners would move heaven and earth to acquire as many running backs as they could in the Rounds 1-2-3. Stacking up on quality RBs was a foolproof plan to fantasy victories. Conversely, according to my colleague Frankie P, receivers were “a dime a dozen.” Jerry Rice and Cris Carter consistently scored 14-17 TDs per season. But for every Rice and Carter you had Michael Irvin and Andre Reed, who averaged just 5 TDs per season in their Hall of Fame careers.
Run of the mill
Over the last few years, running backs in fantasy no longer score as many fantasy points as the wide receiver/tight end positions. Fifty-five running backs have run for over 1,000 yards in a season since 2019. That is outclassed by the 116 wideouts and tight ends who received over 1,000 yards in that same span. Want more proof? Last year 37 RBs were among the top 100 in fantasy points of RBs/WRs/TEs. That’s a far cry from the 63 WRs/TEs in that group. And only four RBs made the top 10. Knowing this, what position should you draft first?
It’s better to receive
The riskiest position in fantasy drafts is also the hardest to predict. Last season the RB bandwagons were full of early-round picks Zeke Elliott, A.J. Dillon, Elijah Mitchell, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers and David Montgomery. They were drafted by Round 5, averaged 156 points on the year, and none finished in the top 20 for RBs. Conversely, less heralded WRs taken after Round 6 blew them away: DeVonta Smith, Christian Kirk, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Mike Williams and Tyler Lockett averaged 240 points on the year, and all were in the WR top 20.
Sore cruisers
Running backs are also most likely to have a season-altering injury. Just ask Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Joe Mixon, Javonte Williams and Breece Hall. All were drafted in the first four rounds last season, and all missed significant time to injuries. But there was fantasy gold for those owners with patience. Six of the top 20 RBs from last year’s drafts were taken in Round 7 or later: Rhamondre Stevenson (Rd 7), Tony Pollard (Rd 8), Miles Sanders (Rd 8), Jamaal Williams (Rd 11), Kenneth Walker III (Rd 12) and Jerick McKinnon (undrafted).
The QB tush push
There are other reasons to wait on drafting running backs. The dreaded RBBC (running back by committee) is alive and well with almost every NFL team. It’s painful to watch your starting RB matriculate down the field to the 5-yard line only to see a second-string RB enter the game and get the short yardage TD. Quarterback TD runs have become commonplace too, with QBs scoring a staggering 80 TDs on the ground last year. Don’t you love those 6-3 QBs leaning forward at the 1-yard line while 350-pound linemen push their tushies into the end zone?
Catch a rising star
This year, Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler deserve to be drafted in the top five picks. But I wouldn’t bat an eye if WRs Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase were taken before them. And I would hesitate on the next tier of RBs. Derrick Henry has been run into the ground, Josh Jacobs has a rebuilding team in Vegas, and Saquon Barkley has been unhappy with his contract. Plugger Najee Harris has underwhelmed, and Jonathan Taylor has a new offense with a rookie QB. Give me Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown over any of those RBs.
Zero to hero
In summary, wide receivers (and some tight ends) score more points than running backs, are less likely to get injured, and are more plentiful. It’s understandable why the Zero RB plan could be a smart way to go in your 2023 fantasy draft.
Festivus for the rest of us
If Zero RB is unappealing to you, try the “George Costanza Do the Opposite” strategy. While your colleagues are going Zero RB, do the opposite and stack your team with RBs. Draft Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard and QB Justin Herbert in the first four rounds. Then take the best WR/TEs on the board with your next eight picks. This will show feats of strength to your fellow owners. Then you can move on to the airing of grievances. Worlds are colliding, Jerry!
