What draft lottery odds will Wizards finish the season with?
What draft lottery odds will Wizards finish with? originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
The Wizards only have two games left on their 2022-23 schedule, yet there is still a fairly wide range of possibilities for where they could end up in the draft lottery.
Lately, they have been doing their part to improve those odds. Playing currently without six of their top rotation players - Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris, Delon Wright and Deni Avdija - the Wizards have lost four straight games.
Among the teams outside of the NBA postseason picture, only the Detroit Pistons have a longer active losing streak. They have lost 11 in a row and hold the worst record in the entire league.
After losing four straight, the Wizards currently sit tied with the Indiana Pacers at 34-46 and for the sixth-best odds in the lottery. Washington is in a three-way tie in wins with the Orlando Magic and Pacers and in losses with the Pacers and Portland Trailblazers.
Ties in the lottery are broken by random drawings. It is not unusual for teams to tie, as in 2021 there were six ties in the first round including three in the lottery. There was a three-way tie for the eighth spot.
As of now, the Wizards could finish as high as fifth in the lottery and that is outright, without a tie. That would occur if they lost their last two games, the Magic and Pacers each won one of their final games and the Blazers won two of their last three games.
Washington could also place as low as ninth in a tie with the Utah Jazz. That would be if the Wizards win each of their final two games and end the year 36-46, and if the Jazz lose their final two.
Here is what's at stake for the Wizards in the lottery, according to Tankathon:
5th spot in lottery: 10.5% chance at No. 1 pick, 42.1% chance at top-four
6th spot in lottery: 9.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 37.2% chance at top-four
7th spot in lottery: 7.5% chance at No. 1 pick, 31.9% chance at top-four
8th spot in lottery: 6.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 26.2% chance at top-four
9th spot in lottery: 4.5% chance at No. 1 pick, 20.2% chance at top-four
When it comes to landing the No. 1 pick, which would likely mean French teenager Victor Wembanyama, the difference between fifth and ninth in the lottery is only six percent. But there is a large disparity, 21.9%, for selecting in the top-four. The Wizards haven't picked higher than ninth in a draft since 2013.
Schedule difficulty could play a significant factor in how teams end the year. Some of the teams the Wizards are jockeying with for lottery position have a tough schedule while others are playing last-place teams.
Here is a look at how these teams close out the season:
9th lottery spot: Utah Jazz (36-43)
vs. OKC (38-42), vs. DEN (52-27), @LAL (41-39)
8th lottery spot: Orlando Magic (34-45)
vs. CLE (50-30), @BKN (44-36), @MIA (42-37)
T-6th lottery spot: Indiana Pacers (34-46)
vs. DET (16-64), @NYK (47-33)
T-6th lottery spot: Washington Wizards (34-46)
vs. MIA (42-37), vs. HOU (20-60)
5th lottery spot: Portland Trailblazers (33-46)
@SAS (20-59), @LAC (42-38), vs. GSW (42-38)
As you see, it's a mixed bag for all involved. One interesting wrinkle, however, is that the top teams in the lottery - the Pistons, Rockets and Spurs - have already secured their spots for the highest odds to get the No. 1 pick.
The Wizards will play a Miami Heat team on Friday that is gunning for the sixth seed in the East, which would mean they avoid the play-in tournament. But they then see a Rockets team that has the second-worst record in the NBA.
The Magic are the only one in this group that will see all playoff teams the rest of the way. Unless their opponents rest a lot of players after locking up a playoff seed, the Magic will be heavy underdogs in all of them.
In just a few days, the Wizards will know where they stand ahead of the May 16 NBA Draft lottery. But a lot can change between now and then.
