What will Dolphins do about Tua Tagovailoa's contract?
The Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa are moving closer and closer to the expiration of Tua's rookie deal. It remains to be seen when, and if, a new deal will be done.
It's not a question of whether Tua has earned a second contract. He has. The issue is how to structure it, and how many dollars to pump into it.
So where does Tua fit in the hierarchy of NFL quarterbacks?
The two other players taken in the top six in 2020, Joe Burrow (No. 1) and Justin Herbert (No. 6), are at $55 million per year and $52.5 million per year, respectively. If Tua, the fifth pick that year, wants to split the difference between those two, that's surely not happening.
The challenge becomes finding the right number, and the proper guarantees. He'll make $23.17 million this year. He should get a lot more. But how much more?
It all comes down to what the team will pay and what the player will accept. Does he want the Kirk Cousins deal, with $100 million fully guaranteed over the first three years, and an average of $45 million? Does he want more?
At what point will the Dolphins say he wants too much? They could tag him for 2025. They could tag him for 2026. They can make him prove it, one year at a time, before making a long-term commitment.
Embedded within this exercise is the question of whether the Dolphins believe they could find someone else to run the offense as well as Tua does, if not better. It's not popular among Tua fans to say that, but it's possibly true. The Dolphins might be able to find an alternative far cheaper than Tua's bottom line.
Maybe the best way to determine Tua's value is to let him become a free agent. Yes, the Falcons coughed up big money for Cousins. Would another team make a major offer for Tua, if he were available to be signed by anyone?
Maybe someone would. He's a popular player. And plenty of teams could do (and are doing) worse.
It's a tough issue. Tua has been good. He has yet to be truly great. He has yet to win a playoff game.
That said, he stayed healthy for all of 2023, a season in which most quarterbacks got injured. He led the league in passing yards.
Yes, it's a tough issue. And the Dolphins might eventually have to make a tough decision.
