Dolphins have a difficult decision to make after Tua Tagovailoa late season slide

During his four seasons with the Dolphins, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has created polarizing opinions, mainly because his play on the field has been so polarized.

Saturday night’s performance during Miami’s 26-7 loss to Kansas City did nothing to change that.

Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense struggled after gaining 264 yards and going 1 for 12 on third-down conversions. He completed 20-of-39 passes for 199 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

In minus-8-degree weather at Arrowhead Stadium, Tagovailoa consistently overthrew receivers and failed to elevate the Dolphins’ offense outside his 53-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill.

Meanwhile, the weather didn’t bother Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He finished 23-for-41 with 262 yards and one touchdown.

“It sucks, brother,” Tagovailoa said. “Losing sucks in general. It doesn’t feel good, I’ll tell you that.”

Dolphins fans may not want to hear this, but it’s time to have a dialogue about Tagovailoa and where he stands among quarterbacks not just in the AFC but in the NFL. Judging strictly by his stats in 2023, Tagovailoa had an impressive season. He threw for a career-high 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 touchdowns.

However, Tagovailoa deserves some blame for the Dolphins late-season slide for the second consecutive year. In Week 3, Miami scored 70 points in a resounding 50-point win against Denver.

Miami was 9-3 entering its final five games of the season with a three-division lead over Buffalo [6-6]. The Dolphins lost three of their last five to lose the division to the Bills, and they fell to the No. 6 seed in the AFC.

In recent weeks, the Dolphins offense had difficulty scoring against elite teams. Miami finished the year 1-6 against playoff teams and averaged 13.3 in its final three games [Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs].

Many have pointed to Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel and his lack of adjustments late in the season. But that could stem from Tagovailoa and his performance in those games.

In his final three games, Tagovailoa passed for 609 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also registered 71.9, 62.7, and 63.9 quarterback ratings during that span.

“I thought we had a great season,” Hill said about the Dolphins. “I think a lot of people doubted us. We kind of exceeded expectations.

“The season didn’t end the way we wanted it to end, but as far as the season, I think guys really laid it on the line. For granted, all the injuries that we had and guys fighting through injuries. I believe that we had a great season.”

It is worth pointing out Miami was riddled by injuries to both their offense and defense. Losing center Connor Williams for the season to a torn ACL during a Week 14 28-27 loss to the Titans and injuries to running back Raheem Mostert [knee] and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle [ankle] during the last few weeks certainly didn’t help.

However, the best signal callers help elevate a team through adversity and that is something Tagovailoa has failed to do during his four seasons in the league. Hill says the Dolphins “exceeded expectations,” but it is difficult to say that when the team made the playoffs last year and lost in the wild-card round just like they did in 2023.

“I know there are some plays that we would want to have back,” McDaniel said. “I know there were some calls he liked and some I would want back. I think that goes across the board.

“There were a lot of really good things, and we have all learned to have high expectations for that unit. Seven points isn’t good enough. We will have to live with that and learn from that and try to take another step. That is what you are always trying to do.

“For me, it is hard to take those big pictures. I am just processing this loss. It is a tough time to give real feedback towards big picture questions when we were thinking about one game at a time and deliver what we wanted to deliver to the fan base was the victory we fell short of.”

Heading into this offseason, the Dolphins have a significant decision to make on Tagovailoa and whether he’s their quarterback of the future. Miami has already picked up Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option for 2024, which will be $23.1 million fully guaranteed.

Tagovailoa’s stats in 2023 say he has earned a contract extension, but there are some aspects the Dolphins need to consider. One is his injury history.

Last year was the first Tagovailoa played all 17 games including a game in the postseason. While in college at Alabama, Tagovailoa suffered an ankle and quad and dislocated his right hip in 2019, which possibly affected his draft stock.

Since being drafted fifth overall in the 2020 draft, Tagovailoa has missed games due to fractured ribs and a finger fracture, and he also suffered multiple concussions.

Not only do the Dolphins have to consider Tagovailoa’s injury history, but also his performances down the stretch.

In December and January games throughout his NFL career, Tagovailoa has a 10-11 record with 25 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Miami has more losses in those 21 games than the team in the 33 career games he started from September through November.

Tagovailoa is a decent quarterback who puts up good numbers. But it remains to be seen if the Dolphins can win a playoff game and more or less compete in the AFC with him behind center.

In just the AFC, Mahomes, Bengals’ Joe Burrow, Bills’ Josh Allen, and Ravens’ Lamar Jackson are the top four quarterbacks in the conference. The Jets also acquired Aaron Rodgers, one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, who is expected to be fully healthy after his Achilles tear during the season opener last year.

Then you have up-and-coming players like Texans’ C.J. Stroud and Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, who have done something Tagovailoa has yet to do in four seasons, and that’s winning a playoff game.

Burrow, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who were all in Tagovailoa’s draft class, have all signed contract extensions. Burrow signed a five-year extension worth $275 million before the start of the 2023 season. Herbert agreed to a five-year extension worth $262.5 million, while Hurts signed his own five-year, $255 million extension.

Tagovailoa is not in the same class as other elite players in the AFC, and that puts Miami in a conundrum. Do they draft and groom a possible replacement in the spring or give money to Tagovailoa, who has yet to prove he is an elite quarterback?

The likely scenario is the Dolphins let Tagovailoa play out his contract. If he outperforms it and leads the Dolphins to a playoff win and maybe a Super Bowl, re-sign him. If they have a similar finish to 2024, they can decide to franchise tag him, maybe trade him, or let him walk altogether.

The only way the Dolphins should extend Tagovailoa is if he agrees to a salary cap-friendly contract, sort of like the four-year, $160 million extension the Giants gave Daniel Jones last offseason. The Giants don’t owe Jones any guaranteed money after the 2024 season, which means they could potentially release him if they so chose and save $19.3 million.

Miami is projected to be over $40.7 million over the salary cap, which also complicates matters. A simple restructure of a few current contracts could give the Dolphins around $33.3 million of cap space.

When asked about his contract situation entering the offseason, Tagovailoa said it wasn’t currently on his mind.

“I’m not worried about that right now,” Tagovailoa said. “Right now, this is a moment for the guys in that locker room and our team to be with one another, to sulk in this and learn from it.”