DFS Dish: 151st Open
The Open Championship heads back to Royal Liverpool this week.
Royal Liverpool has hosted 12 times but just twice since 1967. We saw Tiger Woods hoist the hardware in 2006 when playing on firm conditions when infamously hitting just one driver all week. Rory McIlroy won in 2014 Open at Royal Liverpool.
McIlroy is known for his power but talked about how he hit less club off the tee about as many times as he hit driver that week in 2014. It was a mixed bag of club selection, so for DFS purposes let's have a look at top performers on courses that allow you to club down on the tee box.
Position not Power
The Open Championship rotates venues but it's always played on a links course.
A common theme of links layouts is the penalty of landing in a bunker. The deep pot bunkers provide a true penalty, unlike the sandy areas seen in the States.
We've heard golfers talk about this early in the week at Royal Liverpool.
Brooks Koepka had this to say, "Links golf is all about avoiding bunkers and positioning yourself in the right spot and playing smart. Just comes down to making putts... I don't think length is a huge advantage out here."
Rory McIlroy added, "It's a very strategic golf course off the tee. It's very, very well bunkered. I think the biggest challenge of this golf course, is avoiding those pot bunkers off the tee."
With bunker avoidance being the key element of course strategy, it lends itself to fewer drivers off the tee, as golfers can often lay back with a 3-wood or 2-iron and avoid the possibility of finding those hazards.
Here are the top performers in adjusted strokes gained per round on less-than-driver courses, over the last two years:
Rory Mcilroy
Scottie Scheffler
Sam Burns
Talor Gooch
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Smith
Russell Henley
Jordan Spieth
Viktor Hovland
Tyrrell Hatton
Justin Thomas
Joaquin Niemann
Corey Conners
Max Homa
We can also look at performance versus baseline to see who shows the largest increase in performance compared to their typical scores:
Sam Burns
Hideki Matsuyama
Talor Gooch
Ben Griffin
Byeong Hun An
Abraham Ancer
Russell Henley
Jordan Spieth
Jordan Smith
Adrian Otaegui
Sepp Straka
Corey Conners
Joaquin Niemann
Joost Luiten
Alexander Bjork
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Sam Burns, Talor Gooch, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, and Corey Conners.
There are two themes that stand out to me here. There are golfers who usually hit too many foul balls with their driver so they benefit from being able to club down. Others are elite iron players so they benefit from the importance shifting from driving to approach play. If the big hitters are hitting into the same areas off the tee, then the elite iron players can gain on approach as they'll be hitting from the same spots.
Back to the Boom-or-Bust well with Jordan Spieth
I pointed out the boom-or-bust nature of Spieth last week in Scotland and he grades out as a split-stat specialist again this week. We got a "bust" week at the Renaissance Club but it's not uncommon for Spieth to go from missing the cut to contending without blinking an eye. He's bagged top-10 finishes in five of his nine tries at The Open so there is always upside for the Texan.
Ninth time is the charm for Henley
The Georgia Bulldog has an interesting career progression in terms of stats. He started his pro career as a golfer with some power off the tee that leaned heavily on the flat stick. Over time, he's shifted from power to precision, currently one of the most accurate drivers on the planet. After a dip in putting performance for a few years, he's found his stroke again in 2023, once again providing upside on the greens. This is a really long-wind way of saying that Henley's style of play has changed a lot over the years so I'm willing to look past his sub-par Open Championship resume which includes just one top 20 (and just two top 60s) in eight previous tries.
