Detroit Tigers Newsletter: 5 milestones within reach over the final 25 games
Labor Day has come and gone, and with it, perhaps a bit of Detroit Tigers fatigue — 137 games down, 25 to go before we can start obsessing about offseason moves, like years of Detroit Lions observation has taught us to do.
And yet, there’s still some action to watch — just two days off the rest of the season — and some history to record. After all, it was just Saturday when the historic career of Miguel Cabrera crossed paths with that of Hank Aaron once again.
As the Tigers walloped the White Sox in Chicago, 10-0 (in case you were too busy recovering from Michigan’s 27-point demonstration of Jim Harbaugh’s value to watch), Cabrera went 4-for-5 — three singles and a double — for his first four-hit game since Sept. 8, 2021.
It was also his 49th career four-hit game, tying him with Hammerin’ Hank for 21st in MLB history. (Ty Cobb is No. 1, with 95; the next-closest active player is Houston’s Jose Altuve, whose 38 have him tied for 57th on the list.) It’s as good a reminder as any that as much as we treat the season’s final games like any other — Miggy had a businesslike reaction after his four-hit evening: “My approach today was swing at first-pitch strikes, be aggressive in the count.” — there’s history being hunted as the 2023 season winds down.
Hello, and welcome to the Big Numbers Newsletter!
There is, of course, Cabrera’s march up the hit ladder — he passed George Brett in Chicago for 17th on MLB’s all-time hits list and needs nine more to jump Adrián Beltré and 27 to squeeze past Cal Ripken Jr. in 15th. Miggy, after all, is already looking toward his longtime frenemy, telling Our Man Petzold of Beltré, “I hope I can pass him.”
And while he’s figuring out how to sneak in another head-pat for Beltré, we can take a look at a few of the notable stats some other Tigers are stalking.
(All statistics entering Tuesday.)
Spencer Torkelson: 30 homers
Tork delivered his 25th homer of 2023 Sunday afternoon in Chicago, leaving him five short of becoming the the first Tiger with 30 homers in a season since Cabrera (38) and Justin Upton (31) did it in 2016. In all, the Tigers have had 13 30-homer seasons in the past 23 seasons, since relocating from their dinger-friendly confines at Michigan and Trumbull (where they had 13 30-homer seasons in the 1990s alone) to dinger-deflating Comerica National Park.
Even worse, of those 13 30-homer seasons, seven belong to Cabrera, who did it in 2008, ’09, ’10, ’11, ’12, ’13 and ’16. The other six seasons belong to six different hitters: Upton (2016), Bobby Higginson (30 in 2000), Curtis Granderson (30 in 2009), Prince Fielder (30 in 2012), Victor Martinez (32 in 2014) and J.D. Martinez (38 in 2015).
So can Tork do it? Sunday’s blast, which traveled more than 450 feet, was his 13th homer in just 48 games since the All-Star break. If Torkelson can continue that torrid second-half pace, he’ll knock six or seven more out over the Tigers’ final 25 games. There’s one caveat, however: eight of those 13 homers have come on the road, following a trend that has Tork with 17 road homers and just eight at Comerica. Meanwhile, the Tigers play 12 of their final 25 at home, which could cramp Tork’s home-run style. Then again, of the Tigers’ 13 remaining road games, four come at Oakland Coliseum — the fifth-least homer-friendly park this season. Picking up a couple of dingers in the Bronx this week could go along way toward Tork’s 30-homer chase.
Eduardo Rodriguez: 15 wins
E-Rod picked up his 10th win of 2023 Friday against the White Sox in Chicago, becoming the first Tiger with double-digit victories since Michael Fulmer and Justin Verlander won 10 apiece in 2017. (J.V. then won five more times in the final month of the season following his trade to the Astros and then did nothing else for the rest of his career, which is DEFINITELY not still going on. Rodriguez’s next start, Thursday against the Yankees in New York, gives him the chance to become the first Tiger with 11 wins since … Fulmer (11) and Verlander (16) in 2016.
We could go through each win total, but, well, there are other milestones to mark off. Suffice it to say, if Rodriguez keeps to his normal start schedule, we figure he has five starts the rest of the way: Thursday, and then Sept. 13 vs. the Reds in Detroit, Sept. 18 vs. the Dodgers in L.A. (AWWWK-ward), Sept. 23 vs. the A’s in Oakland, and Sept. 29 vs. the Guardians back in Detroit. If he can pick up wins in all of those starts — no guarantee, considering the Dodgers and Reds are playoff contenders, but still — he could finish with 15 wins, a mark just two Tigers have hit since the start of the 2015 season: Verlander and Alfredo Simon, who had 13 wins in 2015. (For what it’s worth, 2014 saw three Tigers reach the 15-win plateau: Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer, who led the American League with 18.)
Kerry Carpenter: .500 SLG
A .500 slugging percentage seems like it’s setting the bar low, even for an offense-challenged franchise such as the Tigers; after all, there are 30 players with at least 350 plate appearances in the majors this season slugging .500 or better. But only one is a Tiger: Carpenter, whose 13 doubles, one triple and 20 homers have him at .522. (Six of those 30, by the way, are Braves, which could explain their MLB-best 90 wins and 259 homers.)
This is not a new issue for the Tigers, in case you missed out on the past 4½ seasons of this here newsletter: If Carpenter can keep slugging, he’ll be the first Tiger with 350 PAs to finish above .500 since Nick Castellanos hit it right on the button in 678 PAs in 2018. Nick the Stick’s career year as a Tiger was the last in a run that saw at least one Tiger (again, with 350 PAs — our apologies to Gregory Soto’s 1.000 mark in two PAs in 2019) slug better than .500 in every season from 2003-18. (Yes, even in the 119-loss trainwreck of 2003, there was Dmitri Young posting a .537 mark in 635 PAs.)
So can he keep it up? The good news for Carpenter (and fans of arbitrary benchmarks, we suppose) is that, unlike Torkelson, “Kerry Barrels” has been just that at home and on the road, with slugging percentages of .521 and .522, respectively. His splits aren’t so friendly on batting average or on-base percentage — with differences of .352/.223 and .402/.301, respectively — though even there, Carpenter is taking advantage of Comerica Park, rather than the other way around.
Miguel Cabrera: 1,200 hits at Comerica Park
All this talk of the CoPa’s offense-draining powers brings us back to Miggy, come to think of it. With just 12 games remaining in Detroit — though he may not play in all of them — Cabrera sits at 1,193 hits at Comerica Park. That’s far and away the park record — in fact, it’s more hits at The Not-Corner than Nos. 2 and 3, Brandon Inge (567) and Magglio Ordóñez (553), have combined.
But if Miggy can pick up seven more hits at Comerica, he’ll join a select group of hitters in MLB history: Just 31 batters have topped 1,200 hits at any one ballpark in their career, from Carl Yastrzemski rapping out 1,822 hits at Fenway Park in Boston to Joe Judge picking up 1,203 at Washington’s Griffith Stadium. It’s a mark Tigers great Alan Trammell just missed out on: Tram had 1,198 at Tiger Stadium over his 20-year career. (Lou Whitaker also just fell short, with 1,172.) Only four Tigers are part of the 1,200 Club, with Ty Cobb (1,283) and Harry Heilmann (1,234) doing it when The Corner went by Navin Field, Charlie Gehringer (1,417) doing it under the Briggs Stadium moniker and Al Kaline (1,508) doing it at the park mostly known as Tiger Stadium.
Then again, Cabrera’s Comerica Park mark might be even more impressive than those others, considering he spent his first five seasons calling Miami’s Pro Player/Dolphins Stadium home. From 2003-07, he had 409 hits there (by far the most of any player) while picking up just five hits in Detroit.
So can he get No. 1,200 at the CoPa? Our Man Petzold crunched the numbers for Miggy’s shot at passing Beltré and Ripken and came up with a likely 17 hits. Which parks will they drop in? We’ll have to wait and see (and perhaps pick up some tickets for the Tigers’ final series against the Guardians, when Miggy is likely to play a lot).
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Messin’ with the ‘Bull?
Then again, not all milestones are quite so historic; down in Toledo, right-hander Spencer Turnbull needs just five days of major-league service time to move closer to big-league free agency. There’s just one problem: He’s not pitching well enough to get them, with a 7.71 ERA in Triple-A that kept him down there once his rehab assignment was up. And now, a cracked toenail kept him from making his scheduled start Friday. Head here to find out from Our Man Petzold why that’s an unusual injury to derail a start, and why Turnbull’s time as a Tiger — which included a no-hitter a little over two years ago — could be coming to an end.
Greene’s cut short
At the other end of the injury spectrum, however, there’s outfielder Riley Greene, who stretched out for a ridiculous diving catch in Friday’s win and came up with an elbow injury that may cost him the rest of the 2023 season. Greene was placed on the 10-day injured list Saturday while the Tigers wait for the inflammation in his elbow to drop enough for a clean MRI; head here to find out from Our Man Petzold what their plan for Greene is after that.
All eyes on Mize
Continuing our trip through the Tigers’ clubhouse/doctor’s office — what is this, 2022? — it’s time to check in with 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize, who threw his second full rehab bullpen in his return from last year’s elbow and back surgery. Well, almost full — Mize wrapped things up in fewer than 20 pitchers, quicker than the Tigers were expecting, citing fatigue. But neither he nor the Tigers say they’re worried. Head here to find out why Mize said, “This is nothing new. … It's just a hurdle to get through.”
3 to watch
As the colors of the leaves change, so, too, do roles for various Tigers:
JOSE CISNERO: The second-oldest Tiger went through waivers last week but remained unfazed.
ALEX FAEDO: The 2017 first-round pick is getting some time in the bullpen and could eat some innings Tuesday vs. the Yankees.
ANDRE LIPCIUS: From nuclear engineer to utility infielder, Tigers’ 2019 gets the call to the majors.
Mark your calendar
Both the Tigers and the Tigers Newsletter writer took Monday off, leaving a full schedule the rest of the week; for the Tigers, it’s a three-game set vs. the Yankees in the Bronx, where the Tigers haven’t won since April 3, 2019. (An unbalanced schedule kept the Tigers out of New York in 2020, and three-game sweeps kept them winless there in 2021 and 2022.) After that walk down memory lane — and perhaps a Tigers win; head here to check out their chances tonight against Gerrit Cole — they’ll return home for a three-game reunion with the White Sox, swept by the Tigers in Chicago last weekend, beginning Friday.
Tigers birthdays this week: Doyle Alexander (73 on Monday), Drew Carlton (28 on Friday), Edwin Jackson (40 on Saturday).
TL;DR
How long ago was that last Tigers win in New York? The Tigers’ lineup, set by manager Ron Gardenhire, still had Castellanos and Jeimer Candelario … as well as Niko Goodrum, Christin Stewart, John Hicks and Gordon Beckham, whose eighth-inning homer (one of six as a Tiger) gave them a 2-1 win. And Cabrera was still 321 hits away from 3,000.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers Newsletter: 5 September marks within reach for Tigers
