Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Detroit Lions (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (21-29-1 overall, 16-22-1 with Lions); Bucs — Todd Bowles (37-51 overall, 11-10 with Bucs).
Last game: Lions beat the Carolina Panthers, 42-24; Bucs beat the New Orleans Saints, 26-9.
Last meeting: Dec. 26, 2020: Bucs won, 47-7.
Key matchups
Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson vs. Buccaneers RT Luke Goedeke: Hutchinson has been an absolute game-wrecker so far this season with 4½ sacks, 13 quarterback hurries, a forced fumble and an interception. He’s the engine of a good Lions pass rush that faces a stern test Sunday against a Tampa offense that has the second-lowest sack percentage (3.17%) in the NFL.
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Last year, Hutchinson would have spent most of the day working against All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs, but Wirfs moved to left tackle this season and Goedeke now mans the right side. Wirfs is good enough that he’ll be manned up against Charles Harris or whoever the Lions play opposite Hutchinson most of the game. That means Tampa can slide help Hutchinson’s way, but if Hutchinson still can find a way to impact the passer, it will go a long way towards the Lions winning their fourth straight.
Lions CB Jerry Jacobs vs. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: Evans is no lock to play after missing practice time this week with the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 4, but when he’s on the field, he gives Tampa’s offense a different dimension. In his 10th season, Evans leads the Bucs with 337 yards receiving and three touchdowns on 20 catches. He’s a big target in the red zone, and the Lions will use a host of defensive backs to try and limit his touches.
Jacobs is tied for the NFL lead with three interceptions and has played well since a choppy Week 2 performance against the Seattle Seahawks. He has been penalized six times this season, but this is an officiating crew that doesn’t call many pass interference penalties (just one, on a linebacker, all season, and one defensive holding penalty on a DB) so he should be able to get away with some physicality downfield.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Bucs run defense
The Lions will be without rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs for the second straight week, which means it’s David Montgomery’s show in the backfield once again. Montgomery has 51 carries for 130 yards and four touchdowns over the past two games, and his physical running style tends to wear teams down late.
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The Lions won’t hesitate to ride Montgomery on a warm day when they’ll be shorthanded elsewhere on offense. Left guard Jonah Jackson is out with an ankle injury, so Kayode Awosika or Halapoulivaati Vaitai could get the start, and tight end Sam LaPorta missed practice time this week with a calf strain.
The Bucs do a good job clogging the middle with the immovable Vita Vea at nose tackle, so this is a game where Gibbs’ perimeter presence will be missed. Tampa ranks 10th in the NFL against the run at 94.8 ypg, but the Bucs were gashed for 201 yards rushing in their only loss of the season — to the Philadelphia Eagles, when ex-Lion D’Andre Swift had a big day. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Bucs pass defense
If LaPorta can’t play or is limited, his absence would be a huge blow to a passing game that has leaned heavily on the rookie tight end so far this season, though the Lions looked fine without Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown last week. St. Brown is back and healthy now. He’s a move-the-chains guy who has a matchup advantage against rookie slot cornerback Christian Izien.
Jared Goff has been lights-out to start the season. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, has the highest on-target throw percentage of his career (according to Pro Football Reference) and has revived the Lions’ vertical passing game.
The Bucs have long been a pressure team under Bowles, and Lions quarterbacks coach Mark Brunell said he expects something new from Tampa’s formidable pass rush (3 sacks per game) this week coming off the bye. Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean (who is expected back from a neck injury) are one of the more underrated cornerback duos in the NFL and safety Antoine Winfield is a ball magnet with two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and four passes defensed this season. Edge: Bucs
Bucs run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Bucs are not a great rushing team. They are averaging 87 yards on the ground, but they run a similar scheme to the Seahawks, in which they look for cutback lanes on stretch zone plays. As mediocre as they are running the football, the Bucs are committed to it, which has helped Baker Mayfield manage the offense.
Rachaad White gets the vast majority of the work in the backfield. He’s a patient runner, but he averages just 3.3 yards per carry and the Bucs have only four runs of 10-plus yards by running backs this season.
The Lions slipped from first to third in the NFL against the run after allowing 99 yards on the ground last week, but they still have one of the league’s stingiest defenses. Alim McNeill is playing the best football of his career at defensive tackle, and Alex Anzalone (35 tackles) and Derrick Barnes (28) are off to good starts at linebacker, but the Lions won’t have Brian Branch for a second straight week. Edge: Lions
Bucs pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Mayfield can be trouble with his feet, both scrambling for yards and extending plays. He has gotten away from some of the YOLO-ball he played early in his NFL career and is completing 69.6% of his passes behind an offensive line that maxes out protection (just four sacks allowed this year).
Evans and Chris Godwin give the Bucs a dangerous 1-2 punch in the receiving corps, one Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is intimately familiar with from his NFC South days with the New Orleans Saints. “They’re really good players,” Glenn said. “They’re tough, they go up and get the jump ball. So it’ll be good to get a chance to go after these guys again.”
Injuries have left the Lions vulnerable in the back end — they rank 17th in the NFL against the pass at 224.4 yards per game — but they’ve done enough to harass quarterbacks and create turnovers that they’ve been able to survive their personnel churn. Jacobs has an impressive passer rating-against of 65 this season, but the Lions could use more ball production from safeties Kerby Joseph and Tracy Walker. Edge: Lions
Special teams
Lions coach Dan Campbell praised punter Jack Fox this week for his under-the-radar performance against the Panthers, when he controlled field position by sticking both of his punts inside the 20-yard line. Fox is netting 41.2 yards per punt this season, kicker Riley Patterson is perfect on field goals (5-for-5) and extra points (19-for-19) and the Lions have been solid with their coverage units on kicks and punts.
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Pro Bowl punt returner Kalif Raymond has had a quiet first five games, but he should have opportunities Sunday against a Bucs punt team that ranks 30th in average yards allowed (16 yards). Bucs return man Deven Thompkins has been equally as quiet, but Tampa is good elsewhere on special teams and kicker Chase McLaughlin is 7-for-8 on field goals this season, with a long of 57 yards. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The Lions are looking for their fourth straight double-digit win Sunday, something they have not accomplished since 1991. They should be playing in a favorable road environment, but the Bucs are a difficult matchup. Tampa has an above-average defense that has done a good job forcing turnovers so far this year — they’re fifth the NFL with 10 — and Mayfield has done a good job coloring within the lines of their offense. If the Lions can get an early touchdown or two, the Bucs don’t have the offense to keep up. That might be a tough ask with Tampa coming off a bye, but even if it doesn’t happen, the Lions have the better overall roster and should be able to pull away late. The pick: Lions 24, Bucs 21.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Scouting report, prediction
