Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Detroit Lions (1-0)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (18-28-1 overall, 13-21-1 with Lions); Seahawks — Pete Carroll (161-113-1 overall, 128-82-1 with Seahawks).
Last game: Lions beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 21-20; Seahawks lost to the Los Angeles Rams, 30-13.
Last meeting: Oct. 2, 2022: Seahawks won, 48-45.
Key matchups
Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson vs. Seahawks TBD OTs: It’s one week into the season and the Seahawks’ offensive line is already a mess. Starting right tackle Abe Lucas is out at least four games with a knee injury. Starting left tackle Charles Cross might not play because of a toe injury. And Seattle could start 41-year-old Jason Peters, signed off his couch this week; undrafted rookie Raiqwon O’Neal, signed off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice squad; or both in their absence. That’s good news for Hutchinson and the rest of the Lions pass rush, who played well against Patrick Mahomes last week but did not record a sack. Hutchinson had three quarterback hits and four more pressures. He’ll face plenty of chip help Sunday, but could be in line for a huge day.
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Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Seahawks LB Bobby Wagner: Gibbs had 60 yards from scrimmage in his NFL debut last week, when he touched the ball on nine of his 19 offensive snaps and broke six tackles on rushing plays, according to Pro Football Reference. Campbell said the Lions plan to get Gibbs more involved in their offense, and if that happens this week the dual-threat rookie will have to contend with Wagner, one of the best inside linebackers in football. Back for a second stint with the Seahawks after one season with the Rams, Wagner had 18 tackles in Week 1 and helped bottle up L.A.’s rushing attack. If he can deliver a similar performance Sunday, the Lions will find it hard to run the ball.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Seahawks run defense
The Lions averaged a respectable 4.1 yards on true rushing plays in their upset of the Chiefs last week and most importantly were able to kill the final two-plus minutes off the clock by running the ball. Gibbs (seven carries, 42 yards) flashed elusiveness and power, while David Montgomery handled the bulk of the rushing duties with 21 carries for 74 yards.
Montgomery seems built to run behind the Lions offensive line. He didn’t have a gain of more than 8 yards last week, but he keeps the offense on schedule and has the vision to gain tough yards in traffic. The Lions might want a little better balance in the backfield going forward, but with two reliable weapons at running back they can be very matchup based.
The Seahawks overhauled their defensive line after finishing 30th against the run at 150.2 yards per game allowed last year. Seattle is smaller but quicker up front, and for one week at least the changes seem to have worked. The Rams had 81 yards rushing on 37 carries by their running backs (2.2 ypc) and didn’t have a rush longer than 12 yards. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Seahawks pass defense
Jared Goff has been a different quarterback at Ford Field than on the road in his two-plus seasons in Detroit, and he should benefit from playing in front of a friendly crowd in an energized environment Sunday. Goff has not thrown an interception in his last 10 games, though he had a pick returned for a touchdown against Seattle last year and he'll likely be playing behind a reconfigured offensive line Sunday with Taylor Decker dealing with injury.
The Lions’ lack of a deep threat was obvious last week, when Goff attempted just one pass that traveled 20 or more yards downfield. He’s perfectly comfortable working the middle of the field and the short flats, and he has one of the game’s best slot receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, at his disposal. Gibbs and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta are key cogs in the passing game, but the Lions receivers need to do a better job winning on the outside.
Rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon is expected to make his NFL debut for the Seahawks. The No. 5 pick of the draft, a player the Lions were high on, saw significant work in the slot in training camp and could match up with St. Brown most of the game. Seattle has a dynamite safety tandem of Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, but the Seahawks struggled to get off the field on third downs, allowing 11 of 17 conversions, against the Rams last week. Edge: Seahawks
Seahawks run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Seahawks have been a run-first team for as long as Carroll has been coach, and this year’s team is no exception. Quarterback Geno Smith hurt the Lions on scramble plays last year and Seattle spent a second-round pick on ex-Michigan back Zach Charbonnet, but former Michigan State star Kenneth Walker is the feature back coming off a 1,050-yard rushing season.
“He’s a really good back,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said. “He’s explosive. I’ll tell you these jump cuts that he’s able to make within that running game, I mean it’s pretty special. So, our guys know it’s a challenge. It is. And again, with this head coach knowing what he wants to do, we have to be ready for it.”
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The Lions shut down Kansas City’s running game last week, holding the Chiefs to 45 yards on 14 carries on traditional running plays. Patrick Mahomes did give the Lions fits with his feet, and running quarterbacks have been a problem for Glenn’s defense going back two years. One of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL last season, this will be a good test for a Lions team that appears much improved in that area in 2023. Edge: Seahawks
Seahawks pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
The Seahawks are a dangerous passing team. Smith is coming off the best season of his career and Seattle added rookie slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a receiving corps that already featured DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. But the Seahawks’ ability to unlock their passing game given their issues up front is a concern.
Smith took two sacks and was hit five more times on 26 pass attempts last week, when the Seahawks averaged just 5.6 intended air yards per pass, seventh-lowest in the NFL. Metcalf is a physical freak who’s at his best challenging defensive backs downfield, but Walker actually led Seattle with four catches (for a paltry 3 yards) against the Rams.
Along with Hutchinson, Charles Harris and James Houston have to be licking their lips at their matchups on the edge, but the Lions need to win defensively on first and second down to make sure they get in pass rush-friendly situations. Brian Branch returned an interception for a touchdown in his NFL debut last week, and the Lions could have at least one more takeaway as C.J. Gardner-Johnson dropped an interception. Edge: Lions
Special teams
The Lions pulled off another successful fake punt last week, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s watched the team weaponize the kicking game in recent years. Campbell isn’t one to play it safe on special teams, and the Lions are well-coached on every unit. Jack Fox dropped three of his five punts inside the 20 last week and Kalif Raymond gained 16 yards on his only punt return. The Lions did not attempt a field goal with Riley Patterson, though his range issues are less a problem at Ford Field than they are outdoors.
Lions special teams coordinator Dave Fipp said he has a healthy respect for Seattle’s kicking game and top coverage man Nick Bellore. Michael Dickson netted more than 44 yards a punt in two of the past three years and kicker Jason Myers was the NFC’s Pro Bowl representative last season, though he missed a 39-yarder off the right upright against the Rams. Seattle had one of the best kick return units but ranked near the bottom of the NFL in punt return average last year. Edge: Lions
Prediction
Bring your earplugs. This one’s going to be loud. The Lions have never had a Ford Field opener with more anticipation than this one, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t start 2-0 for the first time since 2017. The Seahawks are a playoff contender, and they’ve had the Lions’ number the past two years. They’ve got a dangerous offense and Witherspoon’s arrival means they’ll have one of the better secondaries in the league, in time. But the Lions have a better roster top to bottom, enough pass rush to make Smith’s life miserable for a day and the kind of homefield advantage that can make a difference in a tight game. Look for Seattle to try and keep this game close early with its rushing attack, but for the Lions to pull away early in the second half. The pick: Lions 31, Seahawks 21.
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Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks: Scouting report, prediction
