Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Detroit Lions (11-4) at Dallas Cowboys (10-5)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (28-32-1 overall, 23-25-1 with Lions); Cowboys — Mike McCarthy (165-102-2 overall, 40-25 with Cowboys).
Last game: Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings, 30-24; Cowboys lost to the Miami Dolphins, 22-20.
Last meeting: Oct. 23, 2022: Cowboys won, 24-6.
Key matchups
PARTY TIME: Lions coaches couldn't enjoy the division title. And they absolutely love it.
Lions RT Penei Sewell vs. Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons: The Lions have faced a slate of good pass rushers this season, from Maxx Crosby to Montez Sweat to Danielle Hunter. Parsons might be the best of them all.
The third-year outside linebacker has 13 sacks in 15 games — half a sack shy of his career high — and another 17 quarterback hits. He plays all over the front seven and is a ferocious run defender. Parsons and Sewell, taken five picks apart in the 2021 draft, won’t match up all game. But they’re two of the best in the NFL at their positions; when they do go head-to-head, it will be must-see TV.
“He’s a game-wrecker for sure,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of Parsons. “I was just talking to the guys upstairs, they move him around so much whether it’s right side, left side, over either guard, over the center, he’s just — every snap he’s almost in a different location, so it’s hard to get a beat a little bit to account for where he’s at.”
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Cowboys CB DaRon Bland: The Sewell-Parsons matchup won’t be the only one in the spotlight Saturday.
St. Brown leads the Lions with 106 catches for 1,281 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s Jared Goff’s favorite target on offense, and he’ll go head-to-head Saturday with the most prolific cornerback in game.
Bland leads the NFL with eight interceptions and has returned a record five for touchdowns this season. He has phenomenal ball skills and the instincts to make quarterbacks pay for poor throws, but he’s a bit of a gambler who has also been prone to giving up big plays (four TDs allowed, according to Pro Football Reference).
The Lions won’t shy away from throwing at Bland, and that could have big-time consequences both ways.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Cowboys run defense
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are on the verge of joining some elite company as the eighth pair of teammates to top 1,000 yards rushing in the same season in NFL history. Gibbs has 872 yards in 13 games and is averaging an NFL-best 5.7 yards per carry. Montgomery needs 90 yards for his second career 1,000-yard season.
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The Lions have run the ball almost at will in recent weeks, hitting at least 115 yards in eight straight games. They’ll need to establish the run to keep Dallas’ tenacious pass rush at bay, though, something that will be helped with their entire starting offensive line healthy, though left tackle Taylor Decker missed practice time this week with a groin injury.
The Cowboys have been solid against the run this season, but their middling ranking — 19th in the NFL at 115.7 yards a game allowed — is skewed by two awful performances when they allowed 266 and 222 yards rushing in losses to the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals. Quarterback runs and gadget plays hurt the Cowboys in both games, but they won’t have to worry about Goff scrambling Saturday. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Cowboys pass defense
The Lions are 1-3 in games when they’ve allowed three or more sacks this season. And while there might be a little chicken-or-egg to those numbers — in some games, they’ve leaned heavily on the pass after falling behind early —the reality is they need to keep Goff clean against one of the NFL’s best pass rushes to have a chance.
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Goff is closing on his second straight 4,000-yard passing season and he’s within reach of his career high for touchdown passes (32). St. Brown is the ultimate security blanket, but the Lions have gotten good production from rookie tight end Sam LaPorta this season and Jameson Williams has started to emerge as a potential No. 2 receiver.
The Cowboys have four players with at least four sacks this season — Parsons, Dorrance Armstrong, DeMarcus Lawrence and Sam Williams — and do a good job rotating bodies on their aggressive front. It’s important the Lions stay out of third-and-longs because as Johnson said, “You turn on their third-down tape and it is just a party at the quarterback for third-and-5-plus.” Edge: Cowboys
Cowboys run offense vs. Lions run defense
Tony Pollard was much more efficient splitting carries with Zeke Elliott the past two seasons than he has been this year as the Cowboys' lead back. He’s close to 1,000 yards rushing, but he’s averaging 4 yards a carry, down from 5.2 last season and 5.5 in 2021.
The Cowboys still have a good offensive line, and left guard Tyler Smith is one blocker who pops on tape. But they haven’t been great in goal-to-go situations this year. Dak Prescott can make plays scrambling, and the Cowboys mix in a handful of receiver runs every game on jet sweeps and trick plays.
The Lions are fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (90.6). They’ve gotten good support from Brian Branch and the rest of their secondary all season, and Benito Jones and Isaiah Buggs are run-pluggers up front. Edge: Lions
Cowboys pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Prescott was the MVP frontrunner until a dud of a performance against the Bills two weeks ago. He has played at a high level most of the season, though, and he leads the NFL with 30 touchdown passes after throwing a career-high (and league-leading) 15 interceptions last year.
The Lions have been susceptible to good passing games this season, and if they don’t get consistent pressure on Prescott they will be in for a long day. The Cowboys rank among the NFL leaders in chunk pass plays, with 56 gains of 20-plus yards, and CeeDee Lamb, who leads the league with 109 catches, is in the All-Pro conversation.
The Lions intercepted four passes last week against the Vikings but haven’t been great at generating turnovers this season. Cam Sutton should draw the primary assignment on Lamb, with plenty of help over top, and the Lions are still light on pass rush outside of Aidan Hutchinson. Edge: Cowboys
Special teams
The Cowboys have had success mining the USFL for special teams talent — so much so, they now have one of the best kicking games in the league. Place kicker Brandon Aubrey, a former professional soccer player in his first NFL season after spending two springs with the Birmingham Stallions, is 33-for-33 on field goals including a remarkable 8-for-8 from at least 50 yards. Return man KaVontae Turpin, the USFL MVP in 2022, leads the league with 29.2 yards per kick return. Aubrey does have three misses on extra points and the Cowboys have allowed one blocked punt this year.
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The Lions have been generally solid on special teams, though they allowed a blocked extra point last week and don’t offer much of a threat on deep field goals. Jack Fox is punting better than his net average (41.4 yards) would indicate, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin is one of the best coverage players in the NFL. The Lions have gotten modest production from their return games this season, though they have one of the best kick cover units in the league. Edge: Cowboys
Prediction
The Lions are coming off an emotional win over the Vikings that clinched their first division title in 30 years, so it’d be natural if they came out a little flat Saturday — even under the lights of primetime — in a game that matters for playoff seeding. If that happens, the Lions could be in for a long night trying to dig out of a hole against a relentless Cowboys pass rush and a team that hasn’t lost at home since Week 1 of the 2022 season. I don’t think the Lions are complacent, but I also don’t think they match up well with Prescott and Dallas’ dangerous passing game. The Lions need to control the game with their rushing attack to win this one, while the Cowboys have scored at least 30 points in every home game this year. The pick: Cowboys 34, Lions 27.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys: Scouting report, prediction
