Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Carolina Panthers (0-4) at Detroit Lions (3-1)
The coaches: Lions-Dan Campbell (20-29-1 overall, 15-22-1 with Lions); Panthers-Frank Reich (40-37-1 overall, 0-4 with Panthers).
Last game: Lions beat the Green Bay Packers, 34-20; Panthers lost to the Minnesota Vikings, 21-13
Last meeting: Dec. 24, 2022: Panthers won, 37-23.
Key matchups
Lions LT Taylor Decker vs. Panthers OLB Brian Burns: Decker still is dealing with the remnants of the high ankle sprain that kept him out of two games, but he gutted through last week’s win over the Packers and he’ll be on the field Sunday where he’ll draw the primary blocking assignment against one of the best pass rushers on the Lions’ schedule. Burns, 25, had two sacks against the Lions last season (one against Decker) and had two more against the Lions in 2020. He has one of the best spin moves in the NFL and the Panthers deploy him all over their defensive front. He’s a potential game-wrecker, with three sacks and a fumble recovery this season, and the Lions will need to know where he’s at at all times.
Lions WR Jameson Williams vs. Panthers CB C.J. Henderson: Williams might only play a dozen or so snaps in his first game back from suspension, and he won’t be a high-volume target in the snaps he does play, even with Amon-Ra St. Brown likely out with injury. But the speedy receiver will be the center of attention when he’s on the field. Fans want to see if Williams can make an impact in Year 2 or if drops curb his effectiveness, and Henderson and the rest of the Panthers secondary must keep tabs on Williams and his big play ability. Look for Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to try and get Williams involved early. If he's successful in doing that, Williams’ presence could open things up for a big play late.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Packers run defense
David Montgomery made a triumphant return from the thigh bruise that kept him out of a Week 3 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week, tying a career-high with 32 carries and rushing for 121 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery is averaging a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry for the season, but he’s a slugger who wears down opposing defenses. He gained 113 yards after contact against the Packers and should get plenty of opportunity to run the ball Sunday.
Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs showed up on the injury report Friday with a hamstring injury of unknown severity. Gibbs has been quiet statistically through four weeks, but he’s enough of a big-play threat that opponents have made stopping him a central part of their gameplan. Both Zonovan Knight and Craig Reynolds could see work if Gibbs can’t go, though neither possesses his playmaking ability.
The Panthers have the sixth-worst run defense in the NFL at 136.3 yards per game. They’ve allowed five runs over 18 yards already this season and have given up at least 130 yards on the ground every week. Derrick Brown is a difference maker up front and the Panthers have one of the league’s more underrated linebackers in Frankie Luvu. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Panthers pass defense
The Lions have one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL. They’re one of four teams, along with the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, to rank top-10 in both rushing and passing, but they’ll likely be without leading receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on Sunday because of abdominal injury.
St. Brown’s absence is a blow to the Lions’ already-thin receiving corps, but quarterback Jared Goff is playing some of the best football of his career and the Lions are getting Jameson Williams back this week from suspension. Goff is completing a career-high 69.5% of his passes, but has thrown an interception in three straight games.
Burns and Brown give Carolina one of the NFL’s best pass rush duos, and for all their struggles, the Panthers have done a good job getting after the quarterback this year. Carolina ranks sixth in the league against the pass (176.8 ypg) but lost top cornerback Jaycee Horn to IR with a hamstring injury. Edge: Lions
Panthers run offense vs. Lions run defense
This isn’t the same Carolina team that torched the Lions for 320 yards rushing last season, though the Panthers do want to keep the ball on the ground to help rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Carolina is primarily a zone rushing team and the Panthers make heavy use of 11 personnel.
Miles Sanders tops the running back rotation, though he’s averaging just 2.9 yards per carry this season. Sanders has big-play, but Carolina’s offensive line has been an issue. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu hasn’t take the step forward in Year 2 the team hoped, and pre-snap penalties have been a problem. Hubbard, the change-of-pace back, has 119 yards rushing on 26 carries (4.6 ypc) and Young is mobile enough to make plays with his feet.
The Lions have the NFL’s best run defense at 60.8 yards per game and have held running backs to 2.9 yards per carry. Alim McNeill leads a stout defensive line and Derrick Barnes has emerged as a reliable run stopper in his third season. The Lions won’t have slot cornerback Brian Branch, who has been excellent in run support through four games. Edge: Lions
CARLOS MONARREZ: Aaron Glenn has turned Lions into top-10 defense. I was dead wrong to doubt him.
Panthers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Young, the No. 1 pick of April’s draft, is off to a rough start in his NFL career, though Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said the rookie processes well enough that “you can see him being a top-flight quarterback as the years go by.” For now, Young (167.7 passing ypg) is hampered by a poor offensive line, a lack of weapons and his own inexperience.
The Panthers have seven pass plays of 20-plus yards this season, more than just one other team (the Cincinnati Bengals) and they’ve given up the fifth-most sack yardage. Slot receiver Adam Thielen (27 catches, 287 yards) is Young’s only viable threat at the receiver position, while Sanders, Hubbard and tight end Hayden Hurst have stayed busy on checkdowns. On a positive note, Young has done a good job taking care of the ball for a rookie, with no interceptions since Week 1.
The Lions have been so good against the run this season they’ve made teams one-dimensional, which has jumpstarted a pass rush that struggled to get to the quarterback the first two games. Aidan Hutchinson has 3.5 of the Lions’ 12 sacks the past two weeks and the defensive front has done a good job staying disciplined with its rush. Emmanuel Moseley is expected to make his Lions debut Sunday, though Jerry Jacobs and Cam Sutton still will get the majority of snaps at cornerback. Edge: Lions
Special teams
Lions special teams coordinator Dave Fipp joked this week that if he won Powerball he’d “be calling for more fakes” on special teams, so if the Lions get extra aggressive you know who’s holding the winning ticket. In all seriousness, this is a game the Lions probably don’t need to revert to “stealing” possessions in the kick game. Riley Patterson is a perfect 5 for 5 on field goals this year and Jack Fox has yet to have a touchback on his 16 punts, though his net average is at a career-low 41 yards. The Lions were excellent on kick coverage last week and Chase Lucas has shined in kick and punt coverage since his call-up from practice squad.
READ MORE: Riley Patterson 'doing exactly what we expect' to solidify Lions kicking game
It's a small sample size, but Laviska Shenault is averaging 30.5 yards on his two kick returns so the Panthers might be willing to test the Lions in the return game. Eddy Pineiro is 8 for 9 on field goals with three makes of 50-plus yards already. And Johnny Hekker ranks top 11 in the league in both net and gross punting so the Panthers don’t give away yards in the kick game. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL and the Panthers are league’s last winless team, but Dan Campbell said he does not think his team will take Carolina for granted this week. The Panthers destroyed the Lions in Week 16 last year, and Campbell said enough of his team has lived exactly what Carolina is going through to know their opponent still can be dangerous. It’s true that any team can rise up in the NFL, but there is no excuse for the Lions to lose this game, at Ford Field, against an inferior opponent. The Panthers are good enough defensively to keep things close early, but they don’t have enough offense to beat the Lions without lots of turnover help. As long as Goff takes care of the ball and the defense plays with similar effort to the past few weeks, the Lions will win this one easy. The pick: Lions 27, Panthers 14
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers: Scouting report, prediction
