Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens: Dave Birkett's scouting report and prediction
Detroit Lions (5-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (22-29-1 overall, 17-22-1 with Lions); Ravens — John Harbaugh (151-97 overall, 151-97 with Ravens).
Last game: Lions beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20-6; Ravens beat the Tennessee Titans, 24-16.
Last meeting: Sept. 26, 2021: Ravens won, 19-17.
Key matchups
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs Ravens LB Roquan Smith: David Montgomery is out with a rib injury, which means Gibbs will play a more prominent role on offense. The rookie running back is expected back after a two-game absence due to a hamstring strain and should get the bulk of the work in the Lions backfield. He has dynamic playmaking ability in space, though he doesn’t have a run longer than 21 yards or a catch longer than 10 yards this season.
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Smith has been one of the best linebackers in the NFL dating back to his days with the Chicago Bears. He has 63 tackles already this season and has allowed just one touchdown in coverage since joining the Ravens in a trade last Halloween. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 in scoring, rushing, passing and total defense, and Smith and the team’s speedy linebacking corps is a big reason why.
Ravens TE Mark Andrews vs. Lions LB Alex Anzalone: The Ravens have diversified their offense under new coordinator Todd Monken and with the addition of receivers Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., but Andrews remains one of quarterback Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets, especially in the red zone. Andrews has 24 catches for 294 yards and three touchdowns this season.
The Lions struggled against the Seattle Seahawks’ tight ends in their only loss of the season, but Anzalone is playing arguably the best football of his career. He leads the Lions with 44 tackles, has four pass breakups and has been instrumental to the team’s defensive success. Anzalone will have responsibilities against Jackson in the scramble game, so he might not be deployed in man coverage against Andrews often. But the two are bound to match up at times Sunday in key situations.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Ravens run defense
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson called Montgomery’s injury “a major blow” to the offense, but his absence could give the Lions more space in the run game. Last week, Tampa sold out to stop the run with heavy boxes, and the Lions responded by throwing 44 passes (and taking three more dropbacks that ended in sacks). With Montgomery out, the Ravens might not feel the need to commit as many resources to the run.
Gibbs, the No. 12 pick in April’s draft, had 17 carries for 80 yards when Montgomery missed a game against the Atlanta Falcons earlier this year. He’s dangerous with the ball in his hands, but isn’t the same type of sledgehammer between the tackles. Craig Reynolds could get eight to 10 touches as the Lions’ change-of-pace back, and Campbell suggested the Lions could use receivers Kalif Raymond and Maurice Alexander (as a practice squad call-up) to supplement the run game.
Baltimore ranks ninth in the NFL against the run at 97.7 yards allowed per game. The Ravens shut down Derrick Henry and the Titans rushing offense last week in London, with the exception of one long run on a wildcat play. Smith and Patrick Queen cover lots of ground at linebacker, and the Ravens’ big defensive front tends to give them clear lanes to the ball. Edge: Ravens
Lions pass offense vs. Ravens pass defense
Jared Goff entered the week fifth in the NFL in passing and is coming off a performance so surgical it earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. He has done a good job taking care of the ball (with only three interceptions) and keeping the offense ahead of the chains, and he has been masterful in the play-action game, which is a big reason the Lions lead the league with 29 pass plays of 20-plus yards.
The Lions have started five different combinations on their offensive line already this season, and could start a sixth Sunday if Halapoulivaati Vaitai returns to the lineup at guard. Pass protection hasn’t been an issue, though. But the Ravens lead the league with 22 sacks, from 11 different players.
Johnson said Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is known as a Wink Martindale protégé, which means he’ll bring pressure at any time from any spot on the field. The Lions have three players with three receiving touchdowns — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Josh Reynolds — and St. Brown is coming off an impressive 12-catch game. Edge: Lions
Ravens run offense vs. Lions run defense
This is a strength-on-strength matchup as the Lions lead the NFL in rush defense (64.7 yards allowed per game) and the Ravens rank fifth in rushing yards (144.8 yards per game). Baltimore has topped 100 yards rushing in 22 straight games, while the Lions haven’t given up 100 yards on the ground this season.
Lamar Jackson has spent more time in the pocket this year in Baltimore’s redesigned offense, but he’s still the most dangerous rushing quarterback in the NFL. Jackson is a threat on designed plays and scrambles, running back Gus Edwards is coming off a season-high 16-carry game and the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing attempts (203).
“We look forward to it,” Campbell said. “This is the next challenge and this is a challenging offense. As we’ve said before, it always starts with Lamar, he’s kind of the secret sauce with them and he makes it very difficult because (of) his ability to run.” Edge: Ravens
Ravens pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
The Ravens have gotten mixed results from their new offense. Jackson is completing a career-best 69.9% of his passes this season, but Lions defenders said he still makes some questionable reads and errant throws.
Baltimore upgraded its receiver room this offseason, drafting Zay Flowers and signing Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency. Flowers (35 catches, 367 yards) and Andrews are Jackson’s top targets, and Jackson has never shied away from throwing deep with his big arm. After having zero dropped passes through the first four weeks of the season, according to Pro Football Focus, Ravens receivers dropped five passes in a loss to the Steelers two weeks ago.
The Lions are allowing just 5.7 yards per pass play this season, sixth-best in the NFL, but they were lucky to avoid disaster last week on several plays where they let Tampa receivers run open downfield. Safeties Kerby Joseph and Tracy Walker need to be better with their eyes, and the Lions need more consistent pressure from its edge rushers not named Aidan Hutchinson. Edge: Lions
Special teams
The Lions have weaponized the kicking game like few other teams in the NFL, embracing fake punts — though they haven’t run one since Week 1 — and involving their coverage team in games by forcing opponents to return kicks. Campbell even gave punter Jack Fox a game ball last week for his work controlling field position. Raymond is averaging 9.6 yards per punt return this season. Kicker Riley Patterson is 7-for-8 on field goals, but still doesn’t have a kick longer than 38 yards.
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The Ravens typically have one of the best special teams units in the NFL, but they’ve been sloppy in the kicking game in recent weeks. They allowed a blocked punt for a safety against the Steelers and had an extra point blocked last week. Justin Tucker may be the best kicker in NFL history, and he has had memorable moments against the Lions, including a record-setting 66-yard game-winning field goal at Ford Field in 2021. Devin Duvernay has two kick return touchdowns in his career and had a 70-yard punt return last week. Edge: Lions
Prediction
The Lions have won four straight games and 10 of their past 12 (dating back to last season); a win Sunday would give them their first 6-1 start since 1956. That won’t be easy against a Ravens team that is one of two teams with a winning record still left on the Lions’ schedule. Montgomery’s absence is a significant obstacle to a fifth straight win, and the Lions will need to run the ball well to Baltimore’s multi-faceted pass rush at bay. On defense, the key is containing Lamar Jackson. The Lions have done a good job containing traditional run games this year, but both Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith had some success against the Lions with their feet.
These are two evenly matched teams who play good, physical defense and want to run the ball. Points will be at a premium, and in a game that could come down to a kick, Tucker’s history against the Lions — he made a 61-yard field goal to beat the Lions in 2013 and that 66-yarder two years ago — is tough to overlook. The pick: Ravens 24, Lions 23.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens: Scouting report, prediction
