Will depth of 2024 NFL draft class result in more aggressive approach from Packers?
Will the overall depth of the 2024 NFL Draft class, which is considered to be not as strong as past years, lead to a more aggressive approach from Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst?
In an article from Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports, prior to the NFL combine, it was noted that there were only 58 early entrants into the 2024 draft–the lowest number since 2011.
Wetzel adds that in 2019, the number of early entrants was 135, and from 2016 through 2022, the average number was 115 players.
This is an emerging trend, with only 82 entrants a part of the 2023 draft, with Wetzel pointing to the transfer portal, where players have immediate eligibility, and the NIL as factors contributing this recent outcome.
The result is 60-80 additional high-end talents returning to college football for the 2024 season.
“We were talking a little bit about it earlier,” said Gutekunst at the NFL Combine. “There are less underclassmen. I think the whole transfer portal and COVID and with the extra years has limited some of those guys from maybe coming out. NIL, as well, if you can make a little money and go back and try to improve your draft stock compared to coming out. But the overall numbers and the depth I think is there, especially at the top of the draft.”
As Gutekunst mentions, the top end of the draft will still be loaded with talent, but as each round goes by, the number of players available on the Packers’ board could be less than what it has been in previous years.
As a result, and Gutekunst would never tip his hand about this, but perhaps this leads to a more aggressive approach, with the Packers more willing to part with Day 3 draft picks.
Trading up is already something that we know Gutekunst is very willing to do–having done so at some point in every draft between 2018 and 2022.
We’ve already seen the Packers part with a fifth-round pick last season in the trade that sent Rasul Douglas to Buffalo in order to get a third-round pick in return. Using the Rich Hill trade value chart, the net difference between pick 91, which the Packers received, and pick 160 that they sent to Buffalo is 34 points—or pick 101, the first pick of the fourth round.
The Packers roster is also already built out a bit more than it was at this time last year, with 71 players under contract currently compared to 62 prior to the 2023 draft–meaning, there is less room for draft picks and undrafted signees.
Now, having said all of that, Gutekunst isn’t going to make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. We all know how valuable these draft picks are to him, even those in the latter portion of Day 3.
However, if the right player is out there, particularly at safety or linebacker, where there is already a small pool of players who meet the Packers’ thresholds, then perhaps we see Gutekunst more willing to part with additional draft capital to make a jump up the draft board.
In general, having 11 draft picks, regardless of the size or depth of the incoming draft class, would give the Packers quite a bit of flexibility to not only move around but to draft the best players available. Maybe this year there is more incentive to maximize the flexibility that is available.
