Dave Hyde: Justin Herbert’s deal shows the happy ending Tua Tagovailoa can reach
Leigh Steinberg studied Justin Herbert’s new $262.5 million contract, just as he has NFL quarterback contracts since negotiating Steve Bartkowski’s deal in 1975.
The veteran agent highlighted the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback’s signing bonus in the first year and the option bonus in the second year as a, “means to keep the salary-cap number down, showing a sensitivity that, yes, the quarterback wants to be maximally contracted but the goal is to win the Super Bowl. If he can get there, he’ll be properly rewarded.”
Steinberg knows the coming domino.
“Joe Burrow’s next,” he said of the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback. “His contract will be another bump in the market.”
Then, it’ll be Tua Tagovailoa’s time next offseason as the other top quarterback in the 2020 draft?
“I’ve got to be careful here,” Steinberg said.
He was Tagovailoa’s agent when the Miami Dolphins quarterback came in the league. He’s not now.
“First of all, he had his best year last year,” he said. “Second of all, in any scenario for any team, if not that quarterback, if they don’t sign him, then who?”
Third of all, which is really first of all this season, is Tagovailoa’s health.
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“I don’t want to get into all that,” Steinberg says.
Does anyone? Doesn’t everyone wish this becomes a non-issue across the rest of Tagovailoa’s career?
This is the $269 million question that holds sway over the franchise’s future. The Dolphins threw every dollar and draft pick into this season without looking too hard at what’s coming next year. The moment is now.
Still, the Tua question, starting with his health, sets the course of the next several years. There’s no sense thinking this or that will happen to him this year, to cite this doctor saying one thing or a study about the repetitive effects of concussions. This will decide itself over this season.
Tagovailoa spent the offseason trying to prevent the concussions that were as much his story last year as his break-out play. He gained 20 pounds and looks noticeably, uh, thicker on the field. He practiced jiu-jitsu to learn how to fall to the ground better. He no doubt was coached again to throw the ball away, as he can be hesitant to do, and go to the next play.
How much all that helps is anyone’s guess. All you know is if he gets through this year healthy, if the concussion concern goes to the back burner, he’ll probably be looking at the kind of contract Herbert got this week.
Probably, because the Dolphins haven’t shown any inclination to play hardball with him. It’s been just the opposite since coach Mike McDaniel came in the door.
Probably, too, because this assumes his play continues last year’s upward arc. The question that takes on importance is whether the Dolphins win because of Tagovailoa or with him. His leadership, his attitude always have been first class. He’s always said and done the right things.
His big season last year doesn’t make him a finished product. For instance, he was the second-rated passer between the numbers last year, according to Warren Sharp’s analytics. He ranked 22nd passing outside the numbers. Starting in the December game against the Chargers last season, teams began taking away the middle of the field. McDaniel and Tagovailoa surely spent the offseason plotting how to counteract that.
As Steinberg says, the concern for every team is the “Kirk Cousins problem,” when a quarterback is good but paid like a franchise quarterback. That’s Minnesota and Cousins. It’s where the New York Giants will find themselves after giving Daniel Jones a big contract this offseason.
The Dolphins spent lavishly in bringing on Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead and Bradley Chubb the past couple of seasons. That time is done. Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler are negotiating deals in a defense-tackle market that’s skyrocketed. Players like Jaylen Waddle and Jevon Holland will be moving off rookie-friendly contracts next winter.
Not everyone can get paid coming up. Tua’s contract hangs over all that. Kansas City traded Hill to the Dolphins after signing Patrick Mahomes to a massive deal. Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane has talked of the “constraints,” that Josh Allen’s contract put on the roster.
Those are the constraints every team wants. It means they have the player every team needs.
Steinberg notes the NFL rule changes and mega-TV deals have led to quarterbacks’ values moving off the charts. Look at Herbert’s deal. Tagovailoa said in the wake of the Chargers quarterback’s contract there’s been no negotiation toward his deal.
There can’t be.
“I hope he has a great year,” Steinberg said.
Everyone does. Everyone hopes he gets the happy ending Herbert got this past week. Everyone will just hold their breath over his health as this season plays out.
